The dominant macro driver overnight was President Trump's late-session signal that the US is close to an Iran deal, which reversed a two-day equity sell-off and sent oil sharply lower from intraday highs — WTI had settled at $90.03 before the comments drove prices back toward $86 in after-hours trade. Compounding the policy complexity, the ECB delivered its first rate hike since 2023, lifting its key rate to 2.25% in response to euro area inflation accelerating to 3.2% in May, while the Bank of Canada held at 2.25% and flagged a stagflationary 'dilemma' — underscoring that the global monetary easing cycle is far from uniform. The VIX spiked 11.83% to 22.22 during the session before easing back toward 20.94 in after-hours trade as the Iran deal narrative took hold, reflecting how rapidly sentiment can shift around geopolitical headlines. US futures are pointing firmly higher into Thursday's open, with S&P futures up 0.67% and Nasdaq futures up 1.02%, providing a constructive handoff to Asia-Pacific sessions.
For Asia-Pacific markets, the Iran deal signal is the single most important overnight development — a sustained pullback in crude from the $90–$93 range would reduce imported inflation pressures across the region and ease pressure on central banks from the RBA to the BOJ. The ASX 200, which closed Wednesday up 0.57% at 8,653.3 and is trading around 8,635 at midday AEST, is well-positioned to extend gains given its energy and materials heavyweight composition, though the sharp 4.52% KOSPI selloff and 1.89% Nikkei decline at Wednesday's close — before the Iran pivot — signal residual vulnerability if the deal falls through. The Nikkei VIX surging 16.42% to 38.01 reflects acute regional anxiety, and with USD/JPY still elevated at 160.38, BOJ intervention risk remains a live tail risk heading into the June 16–17 BOJ meeting.