The Federal Reserve held its federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% following its July 29–30 meeting in a 9–3 vote, with Cleveland's Beth Hammack, Minneapolis's Neel Kashkari, and Dallas's Lorie Logan dissenting in favour of a 25 basis point hike — a hawkish split that Chair Kevin Warsh diplomatically described as a 'good family fight.' The Bank of England mirrored this cautious tone with its own 6–3 hold amid Middle East tensions and slowing GDP growth, while central bank gold purchases saw downward H1 2026 revisions tied to weaker oil revenues from Iran-related conflict. Against this backdrop of policy uncertainty, a powerful AI and semiconductor-driven rally on Wall Street — with the S&P 500 surging 1.66% and the NASDAQ jumping 2.78% — provided the dominant risk-on impulse, pushing the VIX down 17.28% to 17.09 and broadly lifting global equities. US Treasury markets told a more nuanced story, however, with the 30-year yield rising 11 basis points to 5.20% and the 10-year up 6 basis points to 4.67%, even as the 2-year fell 4 basis points to 4.22% — a bear steepening that reflects lingering inflation concern and fiscal unease beneath the equity euphoria.
For Asia-Pacific markets opening today, the cross-asset read is constructive but uneven: the DXY slipping 0.78% to 100.01, gold at record levels of $4,100/oz, and copper surging 2.73% to $6.44/lb all support resources-exposed markets, yet the ASX 200 closed Thursday down 0.78% and ASX VIX ticked up 2.55% to 11.68, suggesting local sentiment lagged the US rally. Iron ore held near flat at $98.25/t and crude oil weakened — Brent off 1.88% to $89.03/bbl — creating a mixed commodity backdrop for Australian miners and energy names. The BOJ press conference at 02:30 ET will be closely watched given USD/JPY sitting at 163.3 and ongoing yen intervention signals, while China's unexpected factory activity contraction in July and the KOSPI falling 1.23% are reminders that the AI-driven optimism has not uniformly penetrated the region.