The dominant macro driver heading into Monday is Friday's shock US July jobs report, which showed a contraction of 23,000 positions alongside combined downward revisions of 103,000 to prior months — a significant miss against the 85,000 consensus forecast. This softening of the US labour market immediately reduced near-term Fed rate-hike fears, pulled Treasury yields lower, and acted as a tailwind for risk assets globally, with the S&P 500 closing at a new all-time high of 7,757.64. Progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz eased energy-supply disruption concerns, while VIX falling to 14.9 confirmed a broadly constructive risk backdrop into the new week. Central-bank divergence remains a structural feature, with ECB commentary flagging a possible September hike even as the Fed faces a cooling labour market, creating meaningful cross-regional policy asymmetry.
For Asia-Pacific markets opening Monday, the overnight US strength — led by Nasdaq +1.30% and Russell 2000 +1.10% — provides a positive directional lead, though the ASX 200 closed mildly in the red on Friday at 9,263.6 (-0.09%), suggesting local factors may temper enthusiasm. Iron ore's slide to USD 94.45/t (-0.87%) and copper's decline of 1.74% to USD 6.5705/lb are headwinds for Australian miners and will weigh on materials-heavy segments of the ASX. Gold's surge to USD 4,340.70/oz (+2.33%) is a meaningful positive for domestic gold producers. The ASX VIX falling sharply by 7.50% to 10.23 points to low implied volatility locally, and the SGX's +1.05% and HKEX's +0.54% gains on Friday provide constructive regional context, though KOSPI's -0.60% decline and Nikkei's -0.12% dip highlight that gains across APAC are uneven.