Fed Governor Christopher Waller's September 3 comments that he would favour holding rates steady at the September FOMC meeting if disinflation data continues materially eased near-term rate-hike expectations, pushing the probability of a hike down from roughly 63% to around 50%. This dovish tilt, combined with some de-escalation progress on U.S.-Iran tensions that have been keeping Brent crude elevated near $90–95 per barrel, drove a broad risk-on session overnight — lifting Wall Street sharply, pressuring the U.S. dollar (DXY -0.56% to 99.0), and boosting gold to $4,491.70 per ounce (+2.87%). Markets now look directly to Friday's August nonfarm payrolls print, with consensus expecting a +55,000 rebound after July's shock -23,000 reading, and the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%.
The risk-on impulse from Wall Street's strong session — S&P 500 +1.06%, Nasdaq +1.40%, and the VIX falling 5.79% to 14.32 — translated constructively across Asia-Pacific, with the KOSPI gaining 0.26% and the ASX 200 adding 0.46% to 9,020.1. The yen strengthened materially on the USD softness, with USD/JPY moving to 158.92 (-0.79%), which weighed on export-sensitive Japanese equities and contributed to the Nikkei slipping 0.17% even as broader regional sentiment was positive. For ASX investors, the twin tailwinds of a weaker dollar and surging commodity prices — iron ore +1.74% to $99.42 per tonne, copper +1.17% to $6.577 per pound, and gold at record-area highs — provide a supportive backdrop for resources and materials names heading into Friday's session, though the all-important payrolls number due at 08:30 ET could sharply reprice both Fed expectations and risk appetite before the ASX opens Monday.