Risk sentiment improved modestly on Tuesday as reports of a Qatar/Pakistan-brokered US-Iran diplomatic proposal — involving IAEA inspections and potential release of frozen funds — lifted hopes of Middle East de-escalation, pulling WTI crude back toward $101 and Brent to $108.79 after earlier touching near five-month highs. Despite the geopolitical relief, central bank posture remains the dominant macro overlay: the Fed meets October 28 in what is widely priced as a hold, though CME FedWatch still assigns 17–22% odds to a December hike, while the ECB and BoJ also convene that week amid energy-driven inflation risks that show no sign of abating. US 10-year Treasury yields continued their grind higher, adding 6 basis points to 5.15%, with the 30-year at 5.48%, sustaining pressure on rate-sensitive asset classes. The VIX fell 6.13% to 17.31, signalling near-term calm, though the Nikkei VIX rose 3.04% to 32.18, flagging residual stress in Asian markets. Cross-asset, the steepening of the US yield curve — 2s10s spread widening with the 10-year up 6 bp against the 2-year's 3 bp — points to markets pricing in sustained inflation rather than imminent recession, a backdrop that favours financials and value over long-duration growth. Crude oil's $103.66 WTI print and the 22.04 USD/bbl gasoline crack spread (up 3.2%) remain upside risks to the inflation narrative heading into the US open, even as the diplomatic headline provides a tactical ceiling; investors should watch whether today's UK CPI print (forecast 3.4% y/y vs. prior 3.1%) and BOE Governor Bailey's remarks at 09:00 ET reinforce the global hawkish-hold consensus and reprice sterling assets.