The US midterm elections delivered a Democratic sweep of both congressional chambers, triggering an initial relief rally on reduced political uncertainty before a sharp and painful reversal on November 5 as investors reassessed the regulatory implications for technology and AI infrastructure. The Bank of England delivered a 25-basis-point hike to 4% — its first since 2023 — with the MPC explicitly warning of at least one further move if Middle East conflict sustains energy-driven inflation toward a projected 5% by mid-2027; the Fed, ECB, and BoJ all held recently but each flagged December tightening potential. Oil whipsawed violently, with Brent cratering on de-escalation hopes tied to Vice President Vance's comments before rebounding sharply on tanker incidents near the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent now reclaiming $98. VIX surged 69.7% to 28.18, confirming the transition from post-election euphoria to genuine risk-off conditions.
For the US session today, the cross-asset picture is unambiguously cautious: a 69% VIX spike alongside a Nasdaq entering correction territory and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 12% in a single session set a fragile backdrop for the October non-farm payrolls print at 08:30 ET. Treasuries provided a partial haven with the 10-year yield falling 5 basis points to 4.90%, but the yield curve remains steeply elevated, keeping pressure on rate-sensitive growth names. Gold's modest advance to $4,113 and crude oil's strong bid at $90.52 WTI signal simultaneous geopolitical premium and inflation concern, while the KOSPI's 5.3% plunge and Nikkei VIX jumping 34% underscore how deeply the AI-chip rout has rippled through global equity markets. The payrolls number — forecast at 65k versus a prior 29k — will be the pivotal swing factor at the open.