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While You Slept — AsiaOvernight Global Markets  ·  Asia Morning Brief
PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗  ·  FRIDAY 29 MAY 2026  ·  WYS EDITION 008
Data as of close  Thursday 28 May 2026 close  ·  Generated  29 May 2026  5:30 AM JST  ·  S-260524_0040 / T-260517_1120
🏦 BoJ Watch
Policy Rate
0.73%
Rate cycle -- last 12 decisions
● Hike   ● Hold   ● Cut
Next BoJ Meeting
17 June 2026
Decision ~14:30 JST
20 days away
USD / JPY
159.26
▼ 0.19%
US Dollar / Yen
BoJ Policy Resources
Official BoJ rate decisions
Market Data
Global Market Heatmap
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Markets
Analysis
Macro Themes
Top 5 Structural Themes · Asia-Pacific Focus
Structural Driver
The Bank of Japan has lifted its policy rate to 0.75 percent while the Fed funds rate sits at 3.50-3.75 percent, sustaining a wide interest-rate differential that keeps the yen structurally undervalued near 159 per dollar. This dynamic supports yen-funded carry trades and forces repeated FX interventions even as 10-year JGB yields reach 2.53 percent. Exporters gain pricing power and demand visibility while domestic rate-sensitive sectors face margin pressure from higher funding costs.
Current Catalyst
Post-April hike volatility saw the yen retest 160 intervention thresholds on May 28, lifting Taiyo Yuden (6976.T) 17.0 percent and Murata (6981.T) 9.2 percent on MLCC export expectations.
Watch
June 2026 BoJ policy meeting and potential 25bp hike decision
Names to Watch
6976.T Taiyo Yuden +17.0% Thu · yen-weakness MLCC exporter
6981.T Murata Manufacturing +9.2% Thu · auto-electronics pricing power
6762.T TDK +5.2% Thu · data-center component demand
7203.T Toyota Motor flat Thu · currency tailwind offset by steel costs
BHP.AX BHP Group -1.1% Thu · indirect China demand link
Structural Driver
Beijing prioritizes tech self-reliance and advanced manufacturing exports over broad consumption stimulus, leaving retail sales growth at just 1.7 percent yoy and auto sales down 9.1 percent yoy in Q1 2026. The PBOC maintains a neutral stance with benchmark rates unchanged, widening the supply-demand imbalance. Korean and Japanese component suppliers feeding China’s export machine benefit while domestic-facing Chinese firms lag.
Current Catalyst
Q1 2026 GDP at 5.0 percent headline masked weak March retail data and PBOC’s May decision to hold rates steady, supporting SK Hynix (000660.KS) market-cap breach above $1 trillion on May 27.
Watch
China May PMI release and possible RRR cut signals on June 1
Names to Watch
000660.KS SK Hynix +4.8% Thu · HBM AI memory dominance
005930.KS Samsung Electronics +2.1% Thu · memory export rebalancing
700.HK Tencent +1.3% Thu · tech self-reliance beneficiary
600519.SS Kweichow Moutai -0.9% Thu · weak domestic consumption
RIO.AX Rio Tinto +0.7% Thu · China export-linked iron ore
Structural Driver
Global hyperscale capex on AI infrastructure is driving a multi-year memory and MLCC upcycle that favors Asia’s specialized suppliers in Korea and Japan. SK Hynix and Samsung together exceed 40 percent of KOSPI weight, while Japanese MLCC leaders capture data-center and auto-electronics demand. The structural shift extends beyond near-term hype into sustained pricing power and capacity expansion.
Current Catalyst
SK Hynix market capitalization topped $1 trillion on May 27 with shares surging on HBM dominance, lifting Murata (6981.T) and TDK (6762.T) on May 28 Nikkei session.
Watch
US core PCE inflation print May 29 and Korea export data June 1
Names to Watch
000660.KS SK Hynix +4.8% Thu · HBM leadership
005930.KS Samsung Electronics +2.1% Thu · memory cycle exposure
6976.T Taiyo Yuden +17.0% Thu · MLCC AI demand
6981.T Murata Manufacturing +9.2% Thu · component pricing power
NVDA.O NVIDIA US close +1.9% · indirect Asia supply chain
Structural Driver
Asian central banks are easing more cautiously than peers amid sticky inflation and rising global bond yields, widening regional FX volatility. Japan’s 0.75 percent policy rate versus the Fed’s 3.50-3.75 percent range keeps the yen under pressure while Australian and Korean rate paths diverge. Banks and insurers across the region face direct repricing of JGB and government-bond holdings.
Current Catalyst
10-year JGB yields hit 2.53 percent in early May and BoJ Governor Ueda flagged FX pass-through on May 28, pressuring Japanese banks (e.g., 8306.T -1.2 percent sector) and Australian financials.
Watch
US core PCE release May 29 and RBA June cash-rate decision
Names to Watch
8306.T Mitsubishi UFJ Financial -1.4% Thu · JGB yield sensitivity
8411.T Mizuho Financial -1.1% Thu · rate-divergence exposure
CBA.AX Commonwealth Bank +0.3% Thu · RBA path scrutiny
005930.KS Samsung Electronics +2.1% Thu · won volatility hedge
388.HK Hong Kong Exchanges -0.7% Thu · regional yield flows
Structural Driver
US tariffs and geopolitical fragmentation are accelerating intra-Asia trade integration and diversification away from pure China reliance, favoring exporters with multi-country supply chains. Japanese and Korean electronics and auto-component firms capture resilience-driven orders while Southeast Asia-linked plays gain incremental flows. Australian resources tied to regional infrastructure demand see indirect support.
Current Catalyst
Easing US-Iran tensions in late May alongside strong intra-Asia trade data lifted Japanese exporters (6971.T +4.5 percent) and Australian industrials on May 28 session.
Watch
US May trade balance data and potential tariff announcements June 5
Names to Watch
6971.T Kyocera +4.5% Thu · diversified electronics chain
7203.T Toyota Motor flat Thu · ASEAN supply-chain exposure
BHP.AX BHP Group -1.1% Thu · regional infrastructure demand
1810.HK Xiaomi +1.8% Thu · China+1 diversification play
6504.T Fuji Electric -7.1% Thu · tariff-sensitive steel exposure
Market News
Global Macro Overview

The dominant macro driver overnight is the reported US-Iran 60-day ceasefire memorandum to extend the truce and gradually restore Persian Gulf energy exports, which lifted Wall Street to fresh records — the S&P 500 closing at 7,563.63 (+0.58%) and the Nasdaq at 26,917.47 (+0.91%) — while the VIX fell 3.25% to 15.76, signalling a meaningful compression in near-term hedging demand. Despite the risk-on tone in equities, commodities sent a more nuanced message: Brent crude slipped 1.61% to $92.77/bbl while WTI held at $88.98 (+0.34%), and gold surged 1.84% to $4,529.50/oz — a level implying markets are not fully pricing out tail risk and that safe-haven demand remains structurally elevated, consistent with gold's 41% appreciation over the past twelve months. The US 2-year Treasury yield edged down 1bp to 4.00%, and the Nikkei VIX spiked 6.06% to 31.14, a notable divergence from the calmer tone in US and ASX volatility measures that warrants attention at the Asia open.

For Asia-Pacific investors, the cross-asset pressure is concentrated in several fault lines: the USD/JPY at 159.26 (-0.19%) reflects a yen that remains structurally weak against a near-300bp Fed-BoJ rate differential, even as BoJ board divisions over the pace of tightening intensify — the June or July meetings are now live for a hike. The sharp 1.25% decline in the Shanghai Composite (SSE: 4,093.73) and a 1.06% drop in the Hang Seng (25,328.23) contrast with KOSPI's outperformance (+2.25% to 8,228.70) and TWSE's strong gain (+1.68% to 44,256.80), reflecting divergent exposures: Korea and Taiwan benefit from AI/semiconductor demand signals from Snowflake's 30% earnings surge, while Hong Kong and mainland China face the dual headwinds of unresolved Strait of Hormuz uncertainty and softening domestic fuel demand projections. The aluminium market flagged a significant commodity stress point — aluminium collapsed 12.53% to $3,669.25/t — which directly pressures ASX and SSE-listed metals and mining names.

Market-Moving Events · Asia-Pacific
BOJ|JPYThe Nikkei 225 closed at 64,999.41 (+0.01%) on Friday after falling 0.47% on Thursday, while the TOPIX declined 0.44% to 2,675.80. The Nikkei VIX surged 6.06% to 31.14 — a sharp contrast to the VIX's 3.25% decline to 15.76 — indicating elevated implied volatility in Japanese equities even as US markets calmed. BoJ Governor Ueda has flagged rising inflationary pressures from higher oil prices but has not committed to a hike timeline; BoJ board divisions are deepening, with one member calling for urgent action and another urging patience, keeping June and July meetings live.
CHINA|PBOCThe Shanghai Composite fell 1.25% to 4,093.73 and the CSI 300 dropped 0.80% to 4,908.17 on Thursday. Steel Rebar futures fell 0.80% to CNY 3,144/t and Iron Ore 62% dipped 0.20% to $109.00/t, consistent with persistent softness in Chinese construction demand. The PBOC reiterated a supportive but measured stance, committing to maintain ample liquidity and lower overall financing costs for the real economy, but without specific new stimulus measures. China's crude oil imports are projected to average 10.9 million barrels per day in 2026, the lowest since 2022, per Energy Aspects.
HKEXThe Hang Seng Index fell 1.06% to 25,328.23 on Thursday, with much of the decline occurring in the final hour of the afternoon session. The divergence between Hang Seng weakness and the CSI 300's modest stabilisation reflects the Hang Seng's higher sensitivity to US-China trade uncertainty and to global risk sentiment tied to the Iran conflict, as well as the continued drag from unresolved Strait of Hormuz concerns on Hong Kong-listed energy and shipping names.
KOSPIThe KOSPI surged 2.25% to 8,228.70 on Thursday, continuing its position near record territory and outperforming all other major Asia-Pacific indices. The won strengthened, with USD/KRW falling 0.52% to 1,495.23. The KOSPI's outperformance is consistent with Korean semiconductor and technology exporters benefiting from AI infrastructure demand signals — most directly the Snowflake earnings surge — while the Bank of Korea held its interest rate steady at 2.5% at its 00:00 JST decision.
ASXThe ASX 200 closed up 0.69% at 8,717.70 on Thursday, with Consumer Discretionary (+1.81%), Industrials (+1.78%), and Utilities (+1.70%) leading all sectors higher. Materials added 0.92% despite the significant 12.53% drop in aluminium to $3,669.25/t — the largest single-commodity move in the data — which may create headwinds for ASX-listed aluminium producers at Friday's open. Communication Services was the sole decliner, falling 0.25%.
Market-Moving Events · Americas
FEDAt Jerome Powell's final FOMC meeting as Fed Chair, the committee voted in a split decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%. FOMC member Stephen Miran dissented in favour of a 25bp cut, while three other members supported the hold but objected to retaining the easing bias in the statement. The FOMC noted readiness to adjust policy if Middle East conflict risks escalate. Kevin Warsh is expected to be confirmed as the incoming Fed chair, and bond markets are already pricing a possible 2026 rate hike under his leadership — a material shift from the prior easing trajectory.
MACROUS PCE inflation rose to a three-year high in the latest reading, with the PCE Price Index YoY coming in at a forecast 3.8% (prior: 3.5%) and Core PCE MoM expected at 0.3% — data released Thursday US time. Personal spending is forecast to decelerate to +0.5% MoM from the prior +1.0%, while GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Estimate is expected to print at 2.0% (prior: 0.5%), representing a significant upward revision and a complex data combination for the incoming Warsh Fed to navigate.
EARNINGSSnowflake surged approximately 30% following a strong earnings outlook, but the move remained idiosyncratic — it did not lift the broader software sector. Salesforce fell around 2% after its own earnings report, creating a sharp divergence within enterprise software. AI infrastructure names were broadly stronger: Microsoft, Oracle, and Palantir each gained 3–4%. On the Dow, IBM (+2.99%) and Chevron (+0.89%) led gains while 3M (-2.08%), Salesforce (-1.74%), and Caterpillar (-1.71%) were the primary drags.
ENERGYThe US-Iran 60-day ceasefire memorandum, which includes provisions for the gradual restoration of Persian Gulf energy exports, drove initial risk-on sentiment across US equities. However, Brent crude fell 1.61% to $92.77/bbl even as WTI edged up 0.34% to $88.98/bbl, suggesting markets are not yet treating the deal as durable — particularly given unresolved issues around Tehran's control of the Strait of Hormuz and its nuclear programme. Natural gas jumped 8.36% to $3.29/MMBtu, a notable move that may reflect separate supply dynamics.
FINANCIALSFinancial stocks were broadly under pressure on Wall Street despite the risk-on headline. Visa and BlackRock each fell close to 2%, consistent with the broader pattern of rate-sensitive and fee-revenue financial names struggling in an environment where a Warsh-led Fed is being priced as incrementally more hawkish. This pressure in US financials is a relevant signal for Asian bank stocks given the correlation between US rate trajectory and regional bank earnings outlooks.
Market-Moving Events · Europe
ECBECB Governing Council member Stournaras confirmed that a rate hike at the June 10–11 meeting is the most likely outcome, while policymaker Lane warned that second-round inflation effects from the Middle East energy shock would persist even after the initial supply disruption reverses. Euro-area inflation has ticked up to 2.6%, and the ECB has explicitly cited the Iran war as a source of upside inflation risk and downside growth risk simultaneously.
ECBECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak at 06:20 JST this morning, and the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts are due at 10:30 JST — both events carry the potential to sharpen or soften rate hike expectations ahead of the June meeting, making EUR crosses (particularly EUR/JPY and EUR/AUD) active for Asia-Pacific FX desks today.
MACROEuropean equities closed lower on Thursday, with the DAX falling 0.34% to 25,092.25, the FTSE 100 dropping 0.75% to 10,425.96, and the CAC 40 off 0.23% to 8,188.87. The Euro Stoxx 50 declined 0.25% to 6,055.11. During the European session, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures were both negative, underscoring that the ceasefire optimism had not yet filtered through to European trading hours.
ENERGYDuring European hours, WTI crude rose approximately 3% to around $91.37, reflecting the volatile intraday swings in energy markets tied to ceasefire uncertainty. The subsequent Brent close at $92.77 (-1.61%) indicates that European and US afternoon session traders faded the initial energy rally as deal details remained unconfirmed and key structural issues — including Hormuz transit rights — stayed unresolved.
MACROThe EU Economic Sentiment Index is due at 08:00 JST, with the forecast at 92.8 versus a prior reading of 93.2, pointing to a modest further deterioration in business and consumer confidence across the euro area — consistent with the ECB's own assessment that growth risks have intensified amid energy market volatility and geopolitical uncertainty.
Sector Performance
TOPIX Sectors · Japan Session
Retail Trade▲ 1.05%
Chemicals▲ 0.86%
Elec. Equipment▲ 0.45%
Autos & Transport▲ 0.44%
Transport & Logist.▲ 0.00%
Energy Resources▼ 0.15%
IT & Services▼ 0.50%
Wholesale Trade▼ 0.81%
Pharma▼ 0.89%
Banks▼ 1.16%
Steel & Metals▼ 2.45%
Cons. Discretionary▲ 1.81%
Industrials▲ 1.78%
Utilities▲ 1.70%
Real Estate (REITs)▲ 1.59%
Health Care▲ 1.44%
Materials▲ 0.92%
Cons. Staples▲ 0.70%
Energy▲ 0.43%
Info. Technology▲ 0.14%
Financials▲ 0.10%
Comm. Services▼ 0.25%
Nikkei 225 Top Movers
Prior Close · Top 5 Gainers & Losers · Nikkei 225
▲ Top Gainers
6976.TTaiyo Yuden Co.Ltd.▲ 17.00%
6981.TMurata Manufacturing Co.Ltd.▲ 9.18%
6762.TTDK CorporationTechnology▲ 5.21%
7532.TPan Pacific International Holdin...Consumer Defensive▲ 4.82%
6971.TKyocera CorporationIndustrials▲ 4.54%
▼ Top Losers
5801.TFurukawa Electric Co.Ltd.▼ 7.32%
5713.TSumitomo Metal Mining Co.Ltd.▼ 7.26%
6504.TFuji Electric Co.Ltd.▼ 7.11%
6532.TBaycurrentInc.▼ 6.28%
5706.TMitsui Kinzoku CompanyLimited▼ 5.89%
225/225 Nikkei 225 constituents · prior close
Economic Calendar
Time (JST) Ctry Event Impact Prior Forecast
00:00KRInterest Rate DecisionMedium2.52.5
00:30AURBA BulletinMediumNoneNone
04:00Housing Starts YoYMedium-29.315.5
06:20EUECB President Lagarde SpeechMediumNoneNone
08:00EUEconomic SentimentMedium93.292.8
10:30EUECB Monetary Policy Meeting AccountsMediumNoneNone
11:30USCore PCE Price Index MoMHigh0.30.3
11:30USCorporate Profits QoQ PrelMedium5.75.7
11:30USDurable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoMMedium1.10.5
11:30USDurable Goods Orders MoMHigh1.33.5
11:30USGDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd EstHigh0.52
11:30USGDP Price Index QoQ 2nd EstMedium3.64.5
11:30USInitial Jobless ClaimsMedium210211
11:30USPCE Price Index MoMMedium0.70.5
11:30USPCE Price Index YoYMedium3.53.8
11:30USPersonal Income MoMHigh0.50.4
11:30USPersonal Spending MoMHigh10.5
11:55USFed Williams SpeechMediumNoneNone
13:00USNew Home SalesMedium0.6630.67
13:00USNew Home Sales MoMMedium3.4None
15:00USEIA Crude Oil Stocks ChangeMedium-7.863-4.1
15:00USEIA Gasoline Stocks ChangeMedium-1.548-2.4
22:30Unemployment RateMedium2.72.7
22:50Industrial Production MoM PrelMedium-0.4-0.9
22:50Retail Sales YoYMedium1.71.3
23:00USFed Jefferson SpeechMediumNoneNone
Key Stories for Asia
Japan · China · Korea · Hong Kong · ASX · Impact Analysis
NIKKEI|TOPIXTaiyo Yuden (6976.T) surged 17.00% to lead the Nikkei 225, followed by Murata Manufacturing (6981.T) +9.18% and TDK Corporation (6762.T) +5.21% — a cluster of passive components and electronic materials makers whose gains suggest a market repricing of demand for components tied to AI hardware build-out, consistent with the broader signal from Snowflake's 30% earnings surge in the US. Kyocera (6971.T) gained 4.54%, reinforcing the breadth of the move across the electronics components sub-sector.
NIKKEI|TOPIXThe sharpest Nikkei 225 declines were concentrated in metals and industrial names: Furukawa Electric (5801.T) fell 7.32%, Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713.T) dropped 7.26%, and Mitsui Kinzoku (5706.T) declined 5.89%. These moves are consistent with the 12.53% collapse in aluminium prices to $3,669.25/t and the broader softness in base metals. Fuji Electric (6504.T) fell 7.11% and Baycurrent (6532.T) declined 6.28%, adding pressure to the TOPIX's 0.44% decline even as the Nikkei headline was near flat.
TOPIXAt the TOPIX sector level, Steel & Metals fell 2.45% — the worst-performing sector — consistent with declining steel rebar prices (CNY 3,144/t, -0.80%), iron ore softness, and the sharp aluminium drop. Banks declined 1.16%, reflecting the complex rate environment where BoJ hike uncertainty intersects with JPY weakness at 159.26 per dollar. Retail Trade outperformed, rising 1.05%, which aligns with elevated Japanese consumer price dynamics and potential consumer spending resilience ahead of the domestic retail sales YoY print due at 22:50 JST tonight (forecast: 1.3%, prior: 1.7%).
JAPAN|BOJJapan's Housing Starts YoY for April is due at 04:00 JST this morning, with a forecast of +15.5% versus the prior reading of -29.3% — a swing of nearly 45 percentage points that, if confirmed, would represent a significant inflection in the domestic construction pipeline and carry implications for building materials demand and related TOPIX real estate and construction names. Japan's unemployment rate and preliminary Industrial Production MoM data are both due late tonight at 22:50 JST, with industrial production forecast at -0.9% MoM.
HKEX|CHINAOn the Shanghai Composite, Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) was the largest decliner at -4.81% on Thursday, directly reflecting the 12.53% aluminium price collapse to $3,669.25/t — the most extreme single-commodity move across all asset classes in yesterday's session. Huaneng Power and Datang International led SSE gains with moves of +4.93% and +2.33% respectively, consistent with higher energy prices boosting power generator revenues, while Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals fell 4.29% amid broader sector weakness in Chinese pharma.
TWSE|KOREAThe TWSE surged 1.68% to 44,256.80 and the KOSPI gained 2.25% to 8,228.70 on Thursday, making Taiwan and Korea the clear regional outperformers and standing in sharp contrast to declines across Chinese mainland, Hong Kong, and Singapore (SGX -0.82% to 5,028.80) indices. The TWSE and KOSPI moves align with the AI hardware and semiconductor demand narrative reinforced by strong US tech earnings, with AUD/USD also firming 0.45% to 0.7165, reflecting improved risk appetite in commodity-linked currencies.
Asia Sectors to Watch
Sector Outlook · Signal & Rationale
Energy
Brent crude fell 1.61% to $92.77/bbl despite a reported US-Iran 60-day ceasefire memorandum, with WTI at $88.98 (+0.34%), reflecting market scepticism over deal durability as Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues remain unresolved.
● Neutral
Financials
US financial stocks Visa and BlackRock fell close to 2% on Wall Street, Japanese bank stocks declined 1.16% at the TOPIX sector level, and Kevin Warsh's anticipated Fed chairmanship is being priced as incrementally hawkish — a headwind for rate-sensitive financials.
▼ Negative bias
Technology
Snowflake's 30% earnings surge and AI infrastructure gains of 3–4% in Microsoft, Oracle, and Palantir drove NASDAQ up 0.91% to 26,917.47, with the move reflected in KOSPI (+2.25%) and TWSE (+1.68%) outperformance via semiconductor and hardware names.
▲ Positive bias
Materials
Aluminium collapsed 12.53% to $3,669.25/t — the largest single-commodity move in the session — pressuring Nikkei metals names (Sumitomo Metal Mining -7.26%, Mitsui Kinzoku -5.89%) and SSE-listed Chalco (-4.81%), while copper gained 1.78% to $6.4175/lb.
▼ Negative bias
Healthcare
ASX Health Care sector gained 1.44% on Thursday, while Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals fell 4.29% on the SSE and the broader TOPIX Pharma sector declined 0.89%, reflecting a mixed regional picture with no single macro catalyst.
● Neutral
REITs
ASX REITs gained 1.59% on Thursday, supported by broad risk-on sentiment in Australia, while the potential for a BoJ rate hike in June or July — with the 10-year JGB yield at its highest in nearly 30 years — creates a headwind for Japanese REIT valuations.
● Neutral
Risks & Watch Items
Key Risks · Geopolitical · Supply Chain · Policy
GEOThe US-Iran 60-day ceasefire memorandum remains unconfirmed in key details — Tehran's control of the Strait of Hormuz and its nuclear programme are explicitly unresolved — making Brent crude at $92.77/bbl the most direct real-time signal of whether the deal holds or fractures through the Asia session.
BOJBoJ board divisions are sharpening ahead of the June and July policy meetings, with at least one member calling for a rate hike 'without hesitation' if upside inflation risks intensify — Japanese 10-year JGB yields are at their highest in nearly 30 years and USD/JPY remains at 159.26, keeping yen volatility a live cross-asset risk for Asia-Pacific desks.
MACROThe US GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Estimate (forecast: 2.0% versus prior 0.5%), Core PCE MoM (forecast: 0.3%), and PCE YoY (forecast: 3.8%) are all due at 11:30 JST — a simultaneous release of three high-impact data points that will directly test incoming Fed chair Warsh's policy framing and market rate-hike pricing.
SUPPLYThe 12.53% single-session collapse in aluminium to $3,669.25/t — the largest move across all tracked commodities — has not been explained by the available news flow and warrants monitoring for follow-through selling pressure in ASX Materials, TOPIX Steel & Metals, and SSE-listed metals producers at Friday's open.
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