WYS Asia · Fri 26 Jun 2026 — Overnight Markets Brief

While You Slept — AsiaOvernight Global Markets · Asia Morning Brief

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · FRIDAY 26 JUNE 2026 · WYS EDITION 022

Data as of close Thursday 25 June 2026 close · Generated 26 June 2026 5:30 AM JST · S-260606_1148 / T-260616_2031

🏦 BoJ Watch

Policy Rate

0.73%

Rate cycle -- last 12 decisions

Next BoJ Meeting

30 July 2026

Decision ~14:30 JST

35 days away

USD / JPY

161.80

▲ 0.02%

US Dollar / Yen

BoJ Policy Resources

BoJ Monetary Policy ↗

Official BoJ rate decisions

Market Data

Global Market Heatmap

Loading world map…

      Gain
      Loss
      No data
      ⊙ Hover regions for detail
    

Markets

Key Stories for Asia

Japan · China · Korea · Hong Kong · ASX · Impact Analysis

NIKKEI|TOPIXJapan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.88% to 69,174.97 and the TOPIX dropped 0.81% to 2,700.89 on Thursday despite a strong AI/semiconductor session, with the Nikkei VIX surging 26.64% to 39.69 — a sharp spike in implied volatility that reflects investor unease around the renewed Hormuz tanker incident, BoJ tightening trajectory, and Sharp Corporation's 9.69% decline dragging on the index.

NIKKEI|SEMISAdvantest Corporation surged 15.06%, KIOXIA Holdings jumped 12.27%, Taiyo Yuden rose 11.20%, SCREEN Holdings gained 9.27%, and SoftBank Group added 7.90% in the Nikkei 225 — all directly leveraged to the AI memory and semiconductor equipment cycle ignited by Micron's blowout fiscal Q3 results; the moves lifted the TOPIX Electrical Equipment sector by +3.95%.

TOPIXTOPIX sector data shows a sharp bifurcation: Electrical Equipment (+3.95%), IT & Services (+1.85%), and Chemicals (+1.72%) led gains driven by the AI/semis bid and falling Treasury yields, while Energy Resources fell 2.23% — reflecting the complexity of the oil move, where higher crude is a cost headwind for Japan's heavily import-dependent economy — and Wholesale Trade dropped 1.50%.

KOSPI|KOREAThe KOSPI's 3.26% gain to 8,471.02 was the strongest single-session move among major Asia indices tracked Thursday, with the index recovering from a period of significant turbulence; the Bank of Korea's new governor has estimated that strong AI chip exports will add 0.7 percentage points to real GDP growth in 2026, and MSCI's decision to keep Korea in its emerging-market index remains a structural headwind for foreign inflows.

HKEX|CHINAHong Kong's Hang Seng rose a modest 0.33% to 23,412.18 on Thursday, with gains capped by the state auditor's flagging of irregularities at Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China; meanwhile, China began marketing up to €5 billion in sovereign euro-denominated bonds in what could be China's largest-ever such issuance, a move that adds RMB internationalisation context to the ongoing PBOC reform announcements.

CHINA|JAPANChina has effectively halted exports of certain tungsten products to Japan in 2026, while rare-earth magnet shipments to Japan in May fell to their lowest level since May 2025; the restrictions persist amid China-Japan diplomatic tensions following remarks on Taiwan by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in November 2025, representing a structural supply-chain headwind for Japanese technology and automotive manufacturers.

Sector Performance

TOPIX Sectors · Japan Session

Elec. Equipment▲ 3.95%

IT & Services▲ 1.85%

Chemicals▲ 1.72%

Retail Trade▲ 1.16%

Steel & Metals▲ 0.71%

Pharma▲ 0.24%

Autos & Transport▲ 0.03%

Banks▼ 0.21%

Transport & Logist.▼ 0.54%

Wholesale Trade▼ 1.50%

Energy Resources▼ 2.23%

Industrials▲ 5.21%

Health Care▲ 2.14%

Info. Technology▲ 0.70%

Real Estate (REITs)▲ 0.66%

Cons. Discretionary▲ 0.57%

Cons. Staples▲ 0.56%

Financials▲ 0.27%

Utilities▲ 0.20%

Comm. Services▲ 0.01%

Materials▼ 0.63%

Energy▼ 1.04%

Asia Sectors to Watch

Sector Outlook · Signal & Rationale

Energy

WTI crude rose to $71.97/bbl (+2.32%) and Brent to $75.53/bbl (+2.43%) after reports of an IRGC attack on a Singaporean vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, but TOPIX Energy Resources fell 2.23% and ASX Energy dropped 1.04%, reflecting Japan's and Australia's net energy import exposure to higher oil costs.

● Neutral

Financials

Hong Kong-listed Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China shares fell following state auditor irregularities; TOPIX Banks dropped 0.21%; rising BoJ rates to 1.00% and hawkish Tamura guidance support Japanese bank net interest margins but compress bond portfolios.

● Neutral

Technology

Micron's blowout fiscal Q3 AI memory results drove Advantest (+15.06%), KIOXIA (+12.27%), Taiyo Yuden (+11.20%), Samsung (+5.4%), and SK Hynix (+10.9%), with TOPIX Electrical Equipment gaining 3.95% and KOSPI semiconductors leading the index's 3.26% surge.

▲ Positive bias

Materials

Copper surged to $6.1395/lb (+3.31%) and gold reached $4,043.50/oz (+1.33%), but aluminium dropped 8.39% to $3,285/t and ASX Materials fell 0.63%, with China's property investment still down 16.2% year-on-year in January–May weighing on bulk commodity demand.

● Neutral

Healthcare

ASX Health Care rose 2.14%, making it the second-best ASX sector on Thursday; TOPIX Pharmaceuticals gained a modest 0.24%, while Shionogi declined 3.62% to rank among the Nikkei's top five losers.

▲ Positive bias

REITs

ASX REITs gained 0.66% as Australian 10-year yields tracked the US Treasury bull-steepening move; however, the RBA's return to its previous cycle high of 4.35% (hikes in March and May) keeps domestic refinancing costs elevated for leveraged property vehicles.

● Neutral

Nikkei 225 Top Movers

Prior Close · Top 5 Gainers & Losers · Nikkei 225

▲ Top Gainers

6857.TAdvantest CorporationTechnology▲ 15.06%

285A.TKIOXIA HOLDINGS CORPORATIONTechnology▲ 12.27%

6976.TTaiyo Yuden Co.Ltd.▲ 11.20%

7735.TSCREEN Holdings Co.Ltd.▲ 9.27%

9984.TSoftBank Group Corp.Communication Services▲ 7.90%

▼ Top Losers

6753.TSharp CorporationTechnology▼ 9.69%

8725.TMS&AD Insurance Group HoldingsInc.▼ 4.45%

7012.TKawasaki Heavy IndustriesLtd.▼ 3.87%

5713.TSumitomo Metal Mining Co.Ltd.▼ 3.80%

4507.TShionogi & Co.Ltd.▼ 3.62%

225/225 Nikkei 225 constituents · prior close

Analysis

Macro Themes

Top 5 Structural Themes · Asia-Pacific Focus

Structural Driver

Global AI capital expenditure continues to drive semiconductor demand across Asia, with Japan, Korea and Taiwan positioned as key exporters in the equipment and component supply chain. This structural tailwind reflects sustained capex by hyperscalers and memory producers, creating persistent outperformance in test equipment, wafer fabrication tools and electronic components amid a multi-year technology cycle.

Current Catalyst

Nikkei gainers on 25 June were led by semiconductor names, with Advantest (6857.T) surging 15.1 percent, Screen Holdings (7735.T) up 9.3 percent and Taiyo Yuden (6976.T) rising 11.2 percent on continued AI rotation.

Watch

South Korea 2Q GDP and industrial production data due 30 June 2026

Names to Watch

6857.T Advantest Corp +15.1% Thu · test equipment leader

7735.T Screen Holdings Co Ltd +9.3% Thu · wafer fab equipment

6976.T Taiyo Yuden Co Ltd +11.2% Thu · capacitors for AI servers

9984.T SoftBank Group Corp +7.9% Thu · AI investment exposure

005930.KS Samsung Electronics Co Ltd memory supply chain play

Structural Driver

The Bank of Japan’s exit from ultra-loose policy creates policy divergence with the Fed and ECB, keeping the yen structurally weak near 40-year lows and supporting Japanese exporters through improved competitiveness. The June hike to a 31-year high of 1.0 percent signals further normalization toward neutral, with intervention risks rising as USD/JPY hovers around 162.

Current Catalyst

BoJ minutes released 24 June showed most members favoring additional hikes, while Finance Minister warnings of intervention “whenever necessary” followed USD/JPY trading near record lows.

Watch

BoJ June meeting minutes follow-up and USD/JPY intervention watch through early July

Names to Watch

7203.T Toyota Motor Corp exporter beneficiary of weak yen

6753.T Sharp Corp -9.7% Thu · currency sensitive

7012.T Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd -3.9% Thu · machinery exporter

8306.T Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group domestic bank with rate sensitivity

BHP.AX BHP Group Ltd AUD/JPY cross exposure

Structural Driver

China’s policy stance remains data-dependent amid property sector weakness and subdued domestic demand, with the PBOC prioritizing imported inflation monitoring over broad stimulus. Structural pivot toward high-value manufacturing and tech self-reliance limits aggressive easing, keeping LPRs unchanged for the 13th consecutive month at 3.00 percent and 3.50 percent.

Current Catalyst

PBOC held 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates unchanged on 22 June, with language emphasizing overseas central bank actions and 2Q data assessment before any targeted 10-20 bps cuts later in 2026.

Watch

China June PMI and retail sales release scheduled for 30 June 2026

Names to Watch

600036.SS China Merchants Bank Co Ltd rate-sensitive lending exposure

0700.HK Tencent Holdings Ltd tech self-reliance beneficiary

000858.SZ Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd domestic demand proxy

3690.HK Meituan consumer platform with policy sensitivity

300750.SZ Contemporary Amperex Technology advanced manufacturing play

Structural Driver

Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are driving commodity price volatility and imported inflation for Asia’s net energy importers, with ASEAN+3 inflation forecasts revised higher to 1.8 percent for 2026. Supply chain disruptions and higher energy costs weigh on margins for Japan, Korea and Australia while pressuring central bank reaction functions.

Current Catalyst

Iran-related risk escalation cited in 25 June market commentary lifted energy prices, contributing to ASX Energy sector decline of 1.0 percent and Materials lag of 0.6 percent.

Watch

US-Iran diplomatic developments and OPEC+ production decision expected early July

Names to Watch

9501.T Tokyo Electric Power Co energy importer exposure

010130.KS Korea Zinc Co Ltd commodity price sensitivity

BHP.AX BHP Group Ltd -0.6% Thu · materials laggard

WDS.AX Woodside Energy Group Ltd -1.0% Thu · energy sector decline

5019.T Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd refining margin pressure

Structural Driver

Ongoing corporate governance improvements and focus on ROE enhancement continue to unlock shareholder value in Japanese equities, supported by resilient private-sector capital expenditure despite macro headwinds. This structural shift is reinforced by retail and institutional inflows into governance-improving names as the Nikkei trades near record highs.

Current Catalyst

Morgan Stanley/MUFG Japan Summit 2026 discussions highlighted sustained capex and governance momentum, coinciding with TOPIX Electronic Equipment sector advance of 4.0 percent on 25 June.

Watch

Japan Q2 corporate capex survey release due 1 July 2026

Names to Watch

9984.T SoftBank Group Corp +7.9% Thu · governance and tech rotation

5713.T Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd -3.8% Thu · capex cycle name

4507.T Shionogi & Co Ltd -3.6% Thu · ROE focus play

8725.T MS&AD Insurance Group -4.5% Thu · financials with governance upside

ASX.AX ASX Ltd regional governance benchmark

Market News

Global Macro Overview

The dominant macro driver overnight was the renewed flare-up in Strait of Hormuz risk after Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps reportedly attacked a Singaporean vessel, pushing WTI crude back above $71.97/bbl (+2.32%) and Brent to $75.53/bbl (+2.43%) — levels that keep the global inflation reacceleration narrative very much alive. US PCE printed at 4.1% annualised (core 3.4%), reinforcing the Fed's hawkish hold at 3.50–3.75%, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell 9bp to 4.41% and the 2-year dropped 5bp to 4.11%, a bull-steepening move that likely reflects growth concerns rather than any easing pivot — nine of 18 Fed officials still pencil in at least one rate hike in 2026, and the curve remains deeply watched for signals of stagflationary pricing. Gold extended its rally to $4,043.50/oz (+1.33%), confirming the flight-to-safety bid is intact alongside the energy shock.

Market-Moving Events · Asia-Pacific

BOJBoJ board member Tamura reiterated on Thursday 25 June that his baseline envisages raising the policy rate by 0.25 percentage points at intervals of a few months toward a neutral rate of 2%, and that if inflation risks intensify the BoJ should 'accelerate the pace of rate hikes without hesitation' — the most explicit hawkish forward guidance from a board member since the June hike to 1.00%, the highest level since 1995.

JPYUSD/JPY held at 161.80 (+0.02%) despite Tamura's hawkish remarks, remaining well above the 160 level at which the Ministry of Finance conducted reported intervention operations totalling ¥11.7 trillion ($73.5 billion) in May; the persistence of yen weakness at these levels keeps MoF intervention risk elevated heading into Friday's Asian session.

KOREAThe KOSPI surged 3.26% to close at 8,471.02 on Thursday, led by Samsung Electronics (+5.4%) and SK Hynix (+10.9%) on the Micron earnings catalyst; SK Hynix also drew attention from plans to raise up to KRW 45.5 trillion via a Nasdaq ADR listing to fund AI chip capacity expansion, while South Korea's AI-related chip exports were up 139% year-on-year in Q1.

CHINAThe PBOC maintained key lending rates at historic lows for the 13th consecutive month on 22 June, while Governor Pan Gongsheng announced steps to increase overnight reverse repo operations and support offshore renminbi use; Chinese customer-related cross-border payments in RMB reached a historical high of USD 1.4 trillion in March 2026, up roughly 30% month-on-month, partly linked to Hormuz transit payments via CIPS.

PBOCChina's National Administration of Financial Regulation auditors flagged tax and lending irregularities at major state-owned lenders, causing Hong Kong-listed shares of Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China to fall sharply earlier this week; this remains a live overhang for HK financials heading into Friday's session alongside Goldman Sachs estimates of approximately $274 billion in restricted IPO shares potentially entering the market over the next 12 months.

Market-Moving Events · Americas

EARNINGSMicron Technology delivered a blowout fiscal Q3 report, with shares surging nearly 17% in premarket trading on Thursday, driven by strong demand and pricing for AI data-centre memory chips — the catalyst for a broad semiconductor rally that lifted Advantest (+15.06%), KIOXIA (+12.27%), Taiyo Yuden (+11.20%), SCREEN Holdings (+9.27%) and SoftBank Group (+7.90%) in the Nikkei 225 session.

MACROUS PCE inflation ran at a 4.1% annualised rate in the latest reading — the highest since April 2023 — with monthly PCE up 0.4% and core PCE at 3.4% annually; Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC that core inflation was 'too high' and 'trending the wrong way,' declining to specify whether a rate hike is warranted.

FEDThe Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% at its most recent meeting, but Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference was widely interpreted as hawkish; the updated dot plot showed the median policymaker expects modest tightening by year-end, with nine of 18 officials projecting at least one hike in 2026.

TECHMicrosoft fell 3.78% and Apple dropped 6.35% after both companies announced consumer price increases — Microsoft on its Xbox gaming console among other products — adding to pressure on large-cap tech and contributing to the Nasdaq's underperformance at -0.46% on the session.

ENERGYCrude oil futures jumped after reports of the IRGC tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz, with WTI settling at $71.97/bbl (+2.32%) and Brent at $75.53/bbl (+2.43%), reversing a portion of the recent decline that had followed the 18 June US-Iran memorandum of understanding; the 60-day negotiating window leaves the situation unresolved.

Market-Moving Events · Europe

ECBThe ECB raised all three key rates by 25bp on 11 June, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, with President Lagarde citing Middle East war-driven inflation pressures; ECB baseline projections see eurozone headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026 and GDP growth at only 0.8%, with a Bloomberg consensus now expecting a second hike in September.

MACROThe ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment recorded its first positive reading since the start of the Middle East conflict in June 2026, offering a tentative signal that investor sentiment may be bottoming despite the ongoing stagflationary environment; the ECB's Lagarde is scheduled to speak at 15:30 JST today, which Asia markets will monitor for any updated guidance.

BONDSLong-end sovereign bond yields across advanced economies have risen to levels not seen in nearly 20 years as investors reprice inflation, fiscal, and central bank risk; this backdrop has contributed to the ECB's decision to tighten and is reflected in the US 30-year Treasury yield sitting at 4.86%, even after Thursday's 8bp decline.

MACROEuro Stoxx 50 gained 0.85%, DAX added 1.03% to 24,994.83, and the CAC 40 rose 0.55% to 8,431.61 on Thursday, outperforming Wall Street's mixed close, as European equities benefited from the Micron-led semiconductor sentiment lift and a partial reduction in geopolitical risk premium following the 18 June MOU.

Economic Calendar

Time (JST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
00:30	AU	NAB Business Confidence	High	-23	None
00:30	AU	RBA Bulletin	Medium	None	None
02:00	CN	Balance of Trade	High	84.8	92.1
02:00	CN	Exports YoY	High	14.1	15
02:00	CN	Imports YoY	High	25.3	25
11:15	US	ADP Employment Change Weekly	Medium	30.5	None
11:30	US	Balance of Trade	Medium	-56.6	-56.1
11:30	US	Exports	Medium	318.8	None
11:30	US	Imports	Medium	375.4	None
13:00	US	Existing Home Sales	High	4.04	4.07
13:00	US	Existing Home Sales MoM	Medium	0.7	None
15:00	US	EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook	Medium	None	None
15:30	EU	ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	None	None
19:30	US	API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	-6.75	-3.4
23:30	AU	Westpac Consumer Confidence Change	High	3.5	None
23:30	AU	Westpac Consumer Confidence Index	Medium	83	None

Risks & Watch Items

Key Risks · Geopolitical · Supply Chain · Policy

GEO|ENERGYIran's IRGC reportedly attacked a Singaporean vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday amid a standstill in US-Iran MOU negotiations, with the 60-day window for a final agreement still open; any further Hormuz incidents will be the primary real-time driver of crude prices and regional risk sentiment today.

BOJ|JPYUSD/JPY is at 161.80, above the level at which the Ministry of Finance deployed ¥11.7 trillion in intervention in May, and BoJ board member Tamura's Thursday remarks explicitly flagging potential rate hike acceleration toward a 2% neutral rate keep intervention and policy rate risk simultaneously elevated for yen crosses.

MACRO|CHINAChina's June trade data is due at 02:00 JST today, with exports forecast at +15.0% YoY (prior +14.1%) and imports at +25.0% YoY (prior +25.3%), against a backdrop of rare-earth export restrictions to Japan and the PBOC's RMB internationalisation push; a miss on imports would add to property-sector demand concerns.

TWSE|SEMISThe TWSE fell 2.24% to 46,043.60 on Thursday — the sharpest decline among major Asia indices — even as semiconductor peers in Korea and Japan surged on Micron, suggesting Taiwan-specific risk factors including geopolitical sensitivity and potential profit-taking after the index's earlier strong run are creating divergence within the regional semis complex.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Errors & omissions. This report may contain errors, omissions, or outdated information. Analytical and narrative content is prepared using automated research and data aggregation processes and may not reflect the most current market conditions or events. Always verify information independently before acting on it.

Market data. Price data is sourced from publicly available third-party providers including Yahoo Finance and the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED). Data may be delayed, incomplete, subject to error, or temporarily unavailable. PHC makes no warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of any market data presented in this report.

Forward-looking statements. This report may contain forward-looking statements, projections, or expressions of opinion regarding future market conditions. Such statements are inherently uncertain and subject to risks and assumptions that may prove incorrect. No reliance should be placed on any forward-looking statement contained in this report.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold a licence to provide financial product advice or investment advisory services in Australia, Japan, or any other jurisdiction. This report does not constitute financial advice within the meaning of applicable securities laws.

As is / no liability. This report is provided on an "as is" basis without warranty of any kind. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Paul Hague Creations accepts no liability for any direct, indirect, incidental, or consequential loss or damage arising from your use of, or reliance on, this report.

Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.