The dominant macro driver remains the US-Iran conflict, which has injected sustained energy-inflation risk into global pricing: Brent settled at $76.03/bbl and WTI at $71.81/bbl as of Thursday's close, with intraday volatility extreme following President Trump's confirmation that renewed strikes had ended the ceasefire — before he subsequently downplayed a return to full-scale war. US 10-year Treasury yields edged up 1bp to 4.56%, extending a move that had taken them to 4.60% mid-week — the highest since May — as the market prices in the compounding effect of energy-driven inflation against a Federal Reserve that, per June FOMC minutes, had several members arguing a hike was immediately warranted, with roughly half of policymakers still expecting at least one additional increase before year-end. The RBNZ added to the tightening backdrop by raising its OCR 25bp to 2.50% on 8 July, its first hike of the current cycle, warning that further increases are likely.