The dominant macro driver into Monday's Asia open is the continued repricing of long-end US Treasuries, with the 10-year yield settling at 4.69% — up 4bp on the session — and the 30-year pushing to 5.23%, also up 4bp, while the 2-year held flat at 4.19%. The steepening of the curve at these levels reflects markets pricing a persistent inflation and supply premium into duration, even as the front end stabilises around Fed expectations; the backdrop is one of elevated US fiscal supply and Treasury Secretary Bessent's signalled expansion of debt buybacks, which supported risk assets and pushed Bitcoin above $78,300 on Friday. The VIX fell 5.50% to 15.13, suggesting near-term equity fear has receded, but the move in long yields keeps the macro environment complex ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech.
For Asia-Pacific, the cross-asset transmission is multidirectional. USD/JPY held near 158.99 — yen weakness despite markets pricing a 76–78% probability of a September BoJ hike — pointing to ongoing tension between domestic policy normalisation and US rate differentials; the flat 2-year US yield is limiting yen appreciation that the July joint intervention had delivered. USD/CNY fell to 6.7118, with the yuan firming modestly, though China's July data disappointments in retail sales and industrial output keep domestic demand concerns front and centre. The KOSPI's 0.88% gain and won strength (USD/KRW at 1385.98, down 0.35%) reflect Friday's global risk-on tone, but the sector rotation away from semis remains a live pressure point for Korean and Japanese tech names. Australian energy, materials, and communications services led the ASX's sector performance even as the index itself dipped 0.27%, consistent with commodity price support — copper at $6.5795/lb, aluminium up 4.76% to $3,482.50/t, and gold at $4,624.10/oz — being offset by weakness in healthcare, consumer discretionary, and REITs.