The dominant macro driver overnight is the sharp divergence in crude oil benchmarks — WTI crude fell 6.21% to $89.83/bbl while Brent declined a more modest 1.78% to $98.55/bbl — reflecting market pricing around potential Hormuz reopening talks and US-Iran diplomatic signals ahead of the UN General Assembly. This oil selloff, combined with a 5bp decline in US 10-year Treasury yields to 4.96% and the 30-year to 5.29%, suggests markets are beginning to price a marginal easing of the energy-driven inflation shock that prompted the Fed's 25bp hike to 3.75-4.00% on September 16 and the BoJ's move to 1.25% on September 18 — though both benchmarks remain at levels consistent with sustained inflationary pressure. Natural gas surged 11.60% to $3.17/MMBtu, a counter-signal that energy volatility is far from resolved, while gold at $4,397.40/oz and silver up 2.75% to $67.64/oz reflect continued safe-haven and inflation-hedge demand.
For Asia-Pacific markets, the cross-asset picture is concentrated in three pressure points. First, USD/JPY holding at 157.37 — essentially unchanged despite the BoJ's hike to its highest rate since 1995 — signals that the rate differential with the Fed remains wide enough to sustain yen weakness, keeping intervention risk elevated as Japanese markets reopen Thursday. Second, the 3.23% surge in copper to $6.9025/lb and aluminium up 2.47% to $3,510/t point to industrial metals strength that is broadly supportive of Australian materials and Chinese industrial names, even as iron ore at $97.51/t remains subdued. Third, the TOPIX Energy Resources sector fell 1.01% in the prior session while Steel & Metals led gains at +1.44%, mirroring the commodity split — energy cost relief is still uncertain, but base metals momentum is a clear positive for Korean and Japanese industrials with metals exposure.