Global risk sentiment enters Monday on a cautiously optimistic but fragile footing. The US Federal Reserve's first meeting under new chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish surprise — nine of 18 policymakers now pencil in at least one rate hike by end-2026, the post-meeting statement was stripped to just 130 words, and any easing bias was conspicuously absent. The ECB compounded the central bank shock by delivering its first rate hike since 2023, lifting the deposit rate to 2.25% amid euro zone inflation running at 3.2%, even as growth forecasts were slashed to just 0.8% for 2026. Meanwhile, the US-Iran ceasefire agreement — which had briefly crushed oil prices — is showing serious cracks, with Tehran insisting the Strait of Hormuz remains closed pending a Lebanon ceasefire and enforceable oil waivers, keeping energy markets on edge. The VIX's 11% plunge to 16.4 reflects Thursday's sharp tech-led recovery on Wall Street, but the underlying macro environment remains materially more hawkish than it was a fortnight ago. Cross-asset implications are significant for Asia-Pacific: the AUD/USD is hovering at 0.7008, vulnerable to further pressure if the Fed's hawkish repricing extends, while the 2-year US Treasury yield's 15 basis point surge to 4.20% tightens financial conditions globally. Gold's 3.1% Friday slide to US$4,224 per ounce will weigh directly on ASX-listed gold miners including Newmont CDI and Northern Star at the open, while soft copper (-1.65%), nickel (-1.47%), and spodumene (-2.04%) point to another difficult session for the ASX Materials sector, which was already the worst-performing ASX sector on Friday at -4.03%. The Nikkei's resilience above 71,000 is a relative bright spot, but Hong Kong's 1.59% decline and the SSE's 0.43% fall suggest China-linked risk appetite remains subdued heading into this week's critical Chinese trade data.