Global risk sentiment closed the week on a bifurcated note: the Dow Jones hit a fresh record high above 52,900 as a shockingly soft US June payrolls print of 57,000 — less than half the 115,000 consensus — reduced near-term Fed rate hike fears, while the Nasdaq shed 0.80% as chip stocks suffered a second consecutive brutal session driven by AI valuation anxiety and Meta's pivot into cloud computing. The VIX fell 2.65% to 16.15, signalling broadly contained fear despite the tech volatility, while US Treasuries sold off modestly across the curve with the 30-year yield rising 6bp to 4.97%, reflecting lingering inflation concerns tied to Middle East energy disruptions and a CPI running at 4.2% annually. The Fed, under new Chair Kevin Warsh, remains on hold at 3.50–3.75% with no forward guidance, while the ECB has broken from its easing cycle entirely, hiking 25bp in June to a 2.25% deposit rate with more tightening priced in. Gold surged 1.09% to a record USD 4,112.70/oz, reflecting persistent safe-haven demand and inflation hedging across both Western and Asian markets.
For Asia-Pacific markets opening this week, the dominant signals are constructive but uneven: the KOSPI surged 5.76%, the Nikkei added 1.47%, and the ASX 200 closed Thursday at 8,844 — up 1.37% — all drawing support from the Dow's strength and receding Fed hawkishness. The AUD lifted 0.33% to 0.6939 against the USD, a modest tailwind for domestic purchasing power but a headwind for resources exporters reporting in Australian dollars. Iron ore is holding in the USD 95–105 range at USD 98.25/t, providing a steady backdrop for diversified miners, while gold's surge to USD 4,112/oz is a powerful catalyst for Australian gold producers who dominated Friday's ASX top movers. The key watch point for the week ahead is China's June trade data due this morning — consensus expects exports to accelerate to +15% year-on-year — which will directly influence sentiment toward the AUD and Australian materials stocks.