Central banks remain in a broadly hawkish posture heading into August, with the ECB having raised rates 25bp in June 2026 to a 2.25% deposit rate — its first hike in nearly three years — driven by energy costs linked to the Iran conflict, before holding steady in July. The Fed has kept its target at 3.50–3.75% despite three internal dissenters favouring a further 25bp hike, with markets currently pricing September hike odds at around 65%. The BoJ held its policy rate at 1.0% in July after a prior 25bp move, while the RBA sits at 4.35% ahead of its critical 11 August meeting. Reported US-Iran de-escalation has driven crude oil down 5–7% overnight, providing some relief on the inflation front, though risks around the Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb shipping lanes persist. Cross-asset signals are mixed but leaning risk-on: US Technology surged nearly 5% overnight, gold has broken higher to USD 4,132/oz — up 2.45% — and the VIX sits at 16.5 despite a 4% rise, suggesting contained but building anxiety. The sharp 5.12% decline in the KOSPI and a 20.83% spike in the Nikkei VIX to 35.5 point to acute stress in North Asian equity markets that could weigh on regional sentiment at today's open. The AUD has firmed to 0.7049, supported by the broader risk-on tone and a softer USD, which provides a modest tailwind for ASX-listed commodity exporters. Iron ore's 4.43% drop to USD 93.66/t will, however, temper enthusiasm for the materials complex ahead of the local session.