Fading hopes for an imminent U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz dominated Monday's session, sending Brent crude up over 5% to $87.76/bbl and WTI to $82.15/bbl, while lifting the VIX 3.76% to 15.46 as risk appetite softened across equities. Central banks remained firmly in hold mode: the RBA's August 11 meeting is priced at 99% probability for no change at 4.35% following softer June-quarter CPI (headline 3.8%, trimmed mean 3.6%), the Fed held at 3.50–3.75% at its late-July meeting with three hawkish dissents, and the ECB kept its deposit facility at 2.00% with a data-dependent stance. U.S. equity indices closed modestly in the red — S&P 500 –0.06%, Nasdaq –0.32% — as chipmaker weakness offset energy-sector gains, while gold surged 2.55% to $4,451.40/oz as investors sought safe-haven exposure. The yen remained under pressure with USD/JPY rising 0.88% to 159.29, keeping intervention risk on the radar for Tokyo traders.
For Asia-Pacific markets opening Tuesday, the dominant cross-asset signal is a sharply higher energy complex paired with a cautious risk tone, which should provide a tailwind for ASX energy and materials names while weighing on rate-sensitive growth and financial stocks. The ASX 200 closed Monday at 9,263.6 (down 0.09% in today's data), with the ASX VIX dropping 7.50% to 10.23, suggesting local implied volatility is contained even as global geopolitical risk builds. The RBA decision at 14:30 AEST is the centrepiece event for domestic investors, with the accompanying Rate Statement and 15:30 Press Conference likely to set the tone for AUD and bank stocks into the afternoon. China's Shanghai Composite (+1.02%) and Singapore's SGX (+1.05%) showed relative strength overnight, offering a modestly constructive regional backdrop heading into the open.