WYS Australia · Thu 13 Aug 2026 — Overnight Markets Brief

While You Slept — AustraliaOvernight Global Markets · ASX Morning Brief

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · THURSDAY 13 AUGUST 2026 · WYS EDITION 063

Data as of close Wednesday 12 August 2026 close · Generated 13 August 2026 8:30 AM AEST · S-260714_2027 / T-260616_2010

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15 September 2026

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0.7064

● 0.00%

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Markets

ASX Focus

Key Stories for the ASX

ASX-Specific News & Impact

LITHIUMLiontown Resources (LTR.AX) surged +5.51% and Pilbara Minerals (PLS.AX) gained +4.27% at the prior ASX close, moves that are likely to see follow-through support given overnight lithium carbonate prices jumped +2.25% to USD 21,890/t and spodumene SC6 rose +0.48% to USD 2,075/t. Both stocks remain highly leveraged to spot lithium pricing, which continues to face structural tension between long-term EV/storage demand and near-term Chinese supply dynamics.

ENERGYThe ASX Energy sector was the top sectoral performer at the prior close, rising +3.91% (^AXEJ), with AGL Energy (AGL.AX) gaining +5.95% — the third-largest individual mover on the ASX 200. Crude oil dipped slightly overnight (WTI -0.53% to USD 82.76/bbl, Brent -0.37% to USD 88.58/bbl), which may temper further upside for oil-leveraged names, though natural gas rose +0.90% to USD 2.79/MMBtu, a mild positive for gas-exposed producers.

GOLDGold's 1.77% overnight surge to USD 4,460.60/oz — sustained near record levels and supported by central bank buying, elevated geopolitical risks, and diversification flows — is a strong positive signal for ASX-listed gold producers heading into the open. Australia's commodity export outlook has been upgraded on gold price strength, and gold names featured in recent resources fund manager picks for 2026 are likely to attract renewed buying interest.

TECHCodan Limited (CDA.AX) was the top ASX 200 gainer at the prior close, surging +9.30%, while the ASX Info. Technology sector (^AXSJ) was the worst-performing domestic sector at -1.46% — a notable divergence suggesting stock-specific rather than sector-wide drivers. Overnight, US technology led all sectors (XLK +1.49%) on AI momentum, which may provide a partial sentiment lift to ASX tech names at the open, though the domestic sector's prior-session weakness warrants monitoring.

CONSUMERSEEK Limited (SEK.AX) was the worst performer in the ASX 200 at the prior close, plunging -14.31%, followed by Premier Investments (PMV.AX, -11.01%), Super Retail Group (SUL.AX, -5.48%), and Lovisa Holdings (LOV.AX, -4.47%) — a cluster of consumer-facing names under significant selling pressure. The ASX Consumer Discretionary sector (^AXDJ) managed only a marginal +0.22% gain overall, masking severe individual stock weakness that points to earnings-related or guidance disappointments in the retail space.

BANKSThe ASX Financials sector (^AXFJ) fell -0.35% at the prior close, with Computershare (CPU.AX) dropping -4.47% as one of the day's notable losers. Easing US Treasury yields overnight (2-year -3bp, 10-year -2bp) present a mixed backdrop for domestic banks — lower global rates can compress net interest margin expectations — while RBA rate trajectory remains the critical domestic variable for the sector's earnings outlook.

Sector Performance

US Sectors · Overnight | ASX Sectors · Prior Close

Technology▲ 1.49%

Real Estate▲ 0.93%

Utilities▲ 0.48%

Cons. Staples▲ 0.46%

Health Care▲ 0.26%

Financials▲ 0.21%

Energy▲ 0.16%

Industrials▲ 0.10%

Comm. Services▼ 0.90%

Cons. Discretionary▼ 1.13%

Materials▼ 1.24%

Energy▲ 3.91%

Health Care▲ 2.15%

Utilities▲ 0.98%

Materials▲ 0.51%

Cons. Discretionary▲ 0.22%

Real Estate (REITs)▼ 0.12%

Comm. Services▼ 0.29%

Financials▼ 0.35%

Cons. Staples▼ 0.75%

Industrials▼ 0.83%

Info. Technology▼ 1.46%

ASX Sectors to Watch

Sector Outlook · Signal & Rationale

Energy

ASX Energy surged +3.91% at the prior close led by AGL.AX (+5.95%), though a mild overnight dip in crude oil (WTI -0.53%) may cap further immediate upside.

▲ Positive bias

Financials

ASX Financials slipped -0.35% at the prior close and CPU.AX fell -4.47%; easing US yields are a mixed signal, with RBA rate expectations remaining the key domestic driver.

● Neutral

Technology

US tech (XLK +1.49%) led overnight on AI momentum, but ASX IT (^AXSJ -1.46%) was the weakest domestic sector at the prior close, creating a divergence that bears watching at the open.

● Neutral

Materials

Gold surging +1.77% to USD 4,460.60/oz and lithium carbonate jumping +2.25% overnight are strong tailwinds for ASX miners, with LTR.AX and PLS.AX already leading the prior-session charge.

▲ Positive bias

Healthcare

ASX Health Care (^AXHJ) was the second-best domestic sector at +2.15% at the prior close, and US XLV gained +0.26% overnight, suggesting continued defensive/growth support for the sector.

▲ Positive bias

REITs

Easing US Treasury yields (10-year -2bp to 4.70%) are modestly supportive for rate-sensitive REITs, though ASX REITs (^AXPJ -0.12%) finished slightly lower at the prior close.

● Neutral

ASX Top Movers

Prior Close · Top 5 Gainers & Losers · ASX 200

▲ Top Gainers

CDA.AXCodan LimitedTechnology▲ 9.30%

AAI.AXAlcoa CorporationBasic Materials▲ 7.88%

AGL.AXAGL Energy LimitedUtilities▲ 5.95%

LTR.AXLiontown LimitedBasic Materials▲ 5.51%

PLS.AXPLS Group LimitedBasic Materials▲ 4.27%

▼ Top Losers

SEK.AXSEEK LimitedCommunication Services▼ 14.31%

PMV.AXPremier Investments LimitedConsumer Cyclical▼ 11.01%

SUL.AXSuper Retail Group LimitedConsumer Cyclical▼ 5.48%

LOV.AXLovisa Holdings LimitedConsumer Cyclical▼ 4.47%

CPU.AXComputershare LimitedFinancial Services▼ 4.47%

200/200 ASX 200 constituents · prior close

Context & Analysis

Macro Themes

Top 5 Structural Themes · Global & ASX Implications

Structural Driver

Hyperscaler spending on AI training and inference infrastructure is driving sustained capex cycles in chips, power and networking, with Microsoft and peers signalling materially higher outlays that lift global risk assets and indirect ASX beneficiaries through sentiment and power demand. This structural shift away from traditional capex toward AI buildouts creates persistent upward pressure on technology and utilities earnings while compressing yields on softer CPI prints. Fed Chair Warsh’s pivot to reduced forward guidance reinforces a data-dependent regime that amplifies equity sensitivity to AI earnings beats.

Current Catalyst

S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 7,748.50 on 12 August as Nvidia data-centre momentum and Microsoft’s next-gen chip production guidance lifted Nasdaq 0.5% to 26,588.49, with Technology sector +1.5%.

Watch

US CPI follow-up and hyperscaler capex updates due 19-20 August 2026

ASX Names to Watch

AGL AGL Energy +6.0% Wed · power demand from data centres

CDA Codan +9.3% Wed · indirect tech exposure

CPU Computershare -4.5% Wed · financials sentiment lift

Structural Driver

Electrification, EV adoption and now AI data-centre electricity demand are locking in structural requirements for lithium, copper and uranium, with Chinese supply dynamics creating price volatility that transmits directly to Australian producers via AUD and commodity channels. Iron ore resilience above $100/t on restocking further supports majors while lithium faces near-term pressure. This demand-supply mismatch underpins multi-year earnings visibility for resources names despite short-term Chinese policy noise.

Current Catalyst

PLS +4.3% and LTR +5.5% on 12 August as iron ore held key levels and lithium prices reacted to Chinese supply interventions, with Energy sector +3.9% leading ASX.

Watch

China industrial production data 17 August 2026

ASX Names to Watch

PLS Pilbara Minerals +4.3% Wed · lithium spot volatility

LTR Liontown Resources +5.5% Wed · EV and storage demand

BHP BHP Group resources leadership · iron ore and copper

RIO Rio Tinto iron ore restocking support

Structural Driver

Elevated geopolitical risks, high global debt and central-bank diversification are sustaining gold’s monetary role, with Australian export forecasts upgraded on persistent price strength that directly benefits producers’ margins and cash flows. This structural bid operates independently of rate cycles and provides portfolio ballast amid policy communication shifts at the Fed, ECB and BoE. Record central-bank buying reinforces the floor under prices near all-time highs.

Current Catalyst

Gold prices remained elevated on 12 August supporting Australian producers, with prior-session Health Care and resources names outperforming as investors rotated into defensives amid mixed Wall Street close.

Watch

RBA minutes 18 August 2026 for AUD-gold transmission

ASX Names to Watch

NCM Newcrest Mining gold price support

EVN Evolution Mining elevated prices lift margins

NST Northern Star Resources producer cash-flow uplift

Structural Driver

Major central banks are moving from ultra-loose, heavily guided regimes toward data-dependent frameworks with less frequent signalling, as Fed Chair Warsh explicitly reduced forward guidance and press-conference frequency to align with ECB and BoE peers. This transition heightens sensitivity of rate-sensitive sectors to each CPI print and growth data release while widening divergence between US and Australian policy paths. Banks and financials face direct earnings volatility through the yield curve and AUD.

Current Catalyst

Tame US CPI on 12 August eased Treasury yields and supported risk assets, with Fed communication pivot cited as dominant driver of mixed but constructive Wall Street close.

Watch

RBA cash-rate decision 2 September 2026

ASX Names to Watch

CBA Commonwealth Bank rate sensitivity via curve

WBC Westpac Banking policy divergence exposure

NAB National Australia Bank yield-curve impact

Structural Driver

China remains the marginal buyer for iron ore, lithium and energy commodities, with its growth trajectory and policy interventions creating both upside restocking cycles and downside supply shocks that transmit straight to ASX resources earnings. Structural slowdown risks are offset by targeted stimulus and inventory rebuilds that keep prices above key thresholds. This dynamic dominates Australian terms of trade and AUD valuation.

Current Catalyst

Iron ore held above key levels on Chinese restocking demand through 12 August, lifting BHP and RIO peers while lithium faced Chinese supply pressure, with Materials sector -1.2% overnight.

Watch

China trade balance release 13 August 2026

ASX Names to Watch

BHP BHP Group iron ore price resilience

RIO Rio Tinto restocking support

FMG Fortescue China demand exposure

Overnight Briefing

Global Macro Overview

A softer-than-expected US CPI print for 12 August 2026 provided the dominant macro catalyst overnight, easing Treasury yields across the curve — the 2-year fell 3bp to 4.22%, the 10-year slipped 2bp to 4.70% — and lifting broad risk sentiment. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reinforced a shift toward less frequent policy communication and reduced forward guidance, a posture echoed by ECB and BoE peers, leaving markets to navigate a more data-dependent, less hand-held policy environment. Geopolitical risks, particularly Iran-related oil price dynamics from prior sessions, remain a background variable, though AI-driven earnings and hyperscaler capex momentum continues to dominate the positive side of the ledger. The VIX fell 4.78% to 14.55, a clear signal that near-term fear has receded meaningfully.

For Asia-Pacific markets opening Thursday, the constructive US close — S&P 500 +0.26%, Nasdaq +0.54% — combined with easing yields and a stable AUD/USD at 0.7064 sets a broadly supportive tone. The Nikkei surged 2.08% to 66,970 in the prior session, with its own volatility gauge (Nikkei VIX) collapsing 16.37% to 24.99, reflecting a sharp unwinding of near-term hedges. Gold at USD 4,460.60/oz (+1.77%) and iron ore holding above USD 95/t are constructive signals for ASX-listed resource producers, while lithium carbonate's 2.25% jump to USD 21,890/t adds a positive catalyst for PLS.AX and LTR.AX. The ASX VIX at a subdued 10.37 suggests the local market opens in a low-anxiety environment, though today's UK GDP and US PPI prints (due 16:00 and 22:30 AEST respectively) could reset expectations before the ASX close.

Market-Moving Events · Americas

MACROUS CPI for August printed softer than expected on 12 August 2026, relieving near-term inflation anxiety and driving a moderate rally in risk assets. The S&P 500 closed at 7,748.50 (+0.26%) and the Nasdaq at 26,588.49 (+0.54%), with the Dow slipping a marginal 0.04% to 53,770.27 as defensive and cyclical rotation partially offset tech gains.

FEDFed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated a preference for reduced forward guidance and less frequent communication, signalling a deliberate departure from the detailed policy signalling that characterised prior Fed regimes. This posture increases the importance of incoming data — including today's US PPI m/m (forecast +0.2% vs prior -0.3%) and unemployment claims (forecast 202K) — as the primary inputs for rate-path repricing.

TECHAI-related stocks were the standout performers overnight, with the XLK technology ETF surging +1.49%, the best sector performance on the day. Microsoft's signalled commitment to higher production of next-generation AI chips and expanded data-centre investments continues to underpin hyperscaler capex optimism, with analyst projections pointing toward USD 1 trillion-plus in annual hyperscaler spend by 2027.

EARNINGSBetter-than-expected growth from AI-related names drove the bulk of overnight equity gains, reinforcing the narrative that AI infrastructure spending is translating into real earnings delivery rather than speculative multiple expansion. Nvidia's data-centre revenue records, referenced in the research, remain a key anchor for the theme.

MACROUS Treasury yields eased across the curve following the soft CPI print — 2-year -3bp to 4.22%, 10-year -2bp to 4.70%, 30-year -1bp to 5.24% — reducing the opportunity cost of risk assets and offering a mild tailwind to rate-sensitive sectors including real estate (XLRE +0.93%) and utilities (XLU +0.48%).

Market-Moving Events · Europe

BOEUK GDP data for July (m/m) is due at 16:00 AEST today, with the market forecasting flat growth (0.0%) against a prior reading of +0.1%, and preliminary Q2 GDP q/q expected at +0.4% versus a prior +0.6% — a softening trajectory that will be closely watched for implications on BoE rate timing.

ECBThe ECB released long-term interest rate statistics and its Supervision Newsletter on 12 August, with no major policy decisions or speeches reported overnight. The ECB, alongside the BoE and Fed, is noted to be shifting toward a less forward-guided communication posture, increasing the signal value of hard data releases over central bank rhetoric.

MACROEuropean equity indices were broadly constructive in the prior session — Euro Stoxx +0.24%, DAX +0.26% — though the FTSE 100 slipped 0.10% to 10,833.15 and the CAC 40 fell 0.13% to 8,714.94, reflecting some divergence between continental and UK/French market sentiment ahead of today's UK GDP release.

MACRONo major ECB or BoE policy speeches or decisions featured in the overnight session, leaving European markets to take their directional cue from the US CPI outcome and AI earnings momentum rather than domestic central bank catalysts.

Market-Moving Events · Asia-Pacific

JAPANThe Nikkei 225 was the standout Asia-Pacific performer in the prior session, surging 2.08% to 66,970.22, while the Nikkei VIX collapsed 16.37% to 24.99 — signalling a sharp reduction in near-term hedging demand. USD/JPY edged up 0.10% to 159.42, maintaining yen weakness that continues to support Japanese export earnings in local currency terms.

CHINAChinese equity markets underperformed, with the Shanghai Composite (SSE) falling 0.82% to 3,934.09 and the Hang Seng (HKEX) dropping 1.10% to 25,652.82. Iron ore held above USD 95/t on Chinese restocking demand, but lithium prices remain subject to pressure from Chinese supply-side dynamics, a key tension for ASX lithium producers.

SGXThe Singapore Exchange (SGX) advanced 0.98% to 5,754.17, one of the stronger regional performers, while the KOSPI rose 0.73% to 6,345.53, reflecting the broader Asia-Pacific bid associated with easing US inflation and softer Treasury yields. USD/KRW ticked up 0.32% to 1,417.0, a mild headwind for Korean importers.

RBARBA policy expectations remain in focus for ASX investors, particularly given the rate sensitivity of the big four banks and the AUD commodity price transmission channel. The AUD/USD held steady at 0.7064, providing a neutral currency backdrop for Australian commodity exporters pricing in USD.

CHINAGold's 1.77% rise to USD 4,460.60/oz and iron ore's 0.56% gain to USD 95.08/t are constructive for ASX resource producers, while lithium carbonate's 2.25% jump to USD 21,890.25/t and spodumene SC6's 0.48% rise to USD 2,075/t add further positive momentum heading into the ASX open — though Chinese supply-side interventions remain the key risk to the lithium price outlook.

Economic Calendar

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
16:00	GB	GDP m/m	High	0.1%	0.0%
16:00	GB	Prelim GDP q/q	Medium	0.6%	0.4%
22:30	US	Core PPI m/m	High	0.2%	0.3%
22:30	US	PPI m/m	High	-0.3%	0.2%
22:30	US	Unemployment Claims	Medium	199K	202K

Risks & Watch Items

Key Risks · Geopolitical · Supply Chain · Policy

MACROUS PPI m/m (due 22:30 AEST, forecast +0.2% vs prior -0.3%) is the key inflation data point today — a surprise to the upside would reverse yesterday's CPI-driven yield relief and could reprice rate-cut expectations sharply.

MACROUK GDP m/m and preliminary Q2 GDP q/q (due 16:00 AEST) are forecast to show a deceleration to flat growth and +0.4% respectively, with a miss potentially weighing on BoE rate expectations and GBP-sensitive names.

CHINAChinese equity weakness (SSE -0.82%, HKEX -1.10%) and ongoing supply-side interventions in the lithium market remain the primary risk to ASX resource names — particularly PLS.AX and LTR.AX — despite positive overnight spot price moves.

GEOIran-related geopolitical risk remains a background variable for crude oil pricing; any escalation could drive a sharp reversal in oil's current modest decline and amplify volatility across energy and broader commodity markets.

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