Risk sentiment closed mixed on Monday as the Trump administration's expansion of secondary sanctions on Iran dominated macro headlines, while positioning ahead of Nvidia's earnings report and core PCE data kept traders cautious. The Fed remains on hold at 3.50–3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting, with minutes flagging persistent inflation risks and some internal dissent toward hikes; markets are pricing limited near-term easing. The Jackson Hole symposium (August 27–29), themed on financial innovation and payments, looms as the week's key policy event, with Fed Chairman Warsh scheduled to speak later in the week. US Treasury Secretary Bessent also signalled an expansion of longer-dated bond buybacks — at least doubling to $4B+ — aimed at capping long-end yield pressure, though the 10-year and 30-year held near multi-year highs at 4.74% and 5.27% respectively.
For Asia-Pacific markets opening today, the cross-asset picture is cautious but differentiated: a VIX edging higher to 15.85, rising US yields, and a softer AUD/USD at 0.7153 create a modest headwind for risk assets, though gold's surge to $4,716/oz and a 5.42% spike in lithium carbonate prices offer meaningful support for ASX resources names. The Hang Seng's 1.21% gain and KOSPI's 0.88% advance — contrasting with Nikkei's 0.30% decline — suggest selective regional resilience, but Alibaba's $10.2B Hong Kong share placement and Samsung's disappointing shareholder return plan continue to weigh on sentiment around Asian tech and AI-exposed equities. The ASX 200 closed Monday down 0.27%, with REITs and consumer discretionary the clear underperformers; today's session will be shaped by the commodity price tailwinds in lithium and gold against the ongoing drag from rising bond yields on rate-sensitive sectors.