Markets closed Wednesday in a cautious, low-conviction mood as a hotter-than-expected US inflation print kept Fed tightening back on the table for later in 2026, even as softer growth signals complicated the picture. Geopolitical risk sentiment eased modestly on reports of progress in Iran-Oman maritime corridor discussions around the Strait of Hormuz, pulling Brent crude down 2.24% to $86.60/bbl, while gold held firm near $4,665/oz as fiscal and debt concerns — including US Treasury bond-buyback activity — continued to underpin the precious metal. All eyes remain fixed on Nvidia's earnings (due after the 26 August bell) as the critical read-through for global data-centre demand and hyperscaler capex budgets, with Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks on Friday adding another layer of policy uncertainty. The VIX eased 1.55% to 15.21, suggesting Wall Street is not yet pricing in acute stress, but conviction is thin ahead of these two catalysts.
For Asia-Pacific markets opening Thursday, the cross-asset backdrop is broadly constructive at the margin: the AUD gained 0.21% to 0.718, US Treasury yields fell meaningfully (2-year down 7bp to 4.17%; 10-year down 6bp to 4.64%), and oil weakness removes an inflationary headwind for regional central banks. The ASX 200 closed Wednesday up 0.68% at 9,164.6 with broad sector participation, led by Industrials (+2.25%) and Information Technology (+2.11%), while gold miners were a standout on the back of gold's strength. The Nikkei VIX spiking 8.11% to 30.41 is a notable caution signal for Japanese equities specifically, and the RBA's September meeting remains a live policy event for domestic investors given Australia's own hot CPI reading keeping rate-cut hopes at bay.