Central bank week is dominating sentiment, with the Fed widely expected to hold its target range at 3.75–4.00% at its 27–28 October meeting while delivering a hawkish tone that keeps a December hike firmly in play; the ECB is similarly expected to hold at 2.50% on 29 October, and the BoJ on 30 October, with both also signalling ongoing tightening bias. Meanwhile, de-escalation talks involving Saudi Arabia and Iran have provided some relief on the oil front, with Brent falling sharply and WTI slipping below $100, helping equities absorb the weight of sticky inflation and elevated yields — the US 10-year Treasury holding at 5.00% remains a key anchor for risk pricing globally. The VIX declined 4.73% to 17.52, reflecting a meaningful improvement in near-term risk sentiment driven by AI earnings momentum and softer crude, though geopolitical uncertainty has not been fully resolved. Gold's resilience above $4,075/oz signals that investors are not abandoning hedges entirely even as equities rally.
For Asia-Pacific markets opening Wednesday, the overnight backdrop is constructively positive on balance — Nasdaq's 1.18% gain on AI-driven momentum, firmer copper prices, and easing oil all point to a supportive open, though divergence within the region is likely to persist. Australian investors will be sharply focused on the 11:30 AEST CPI release, where headline inflation is forecast to accelerate to 4.2% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month, which would carry direct implications for the RBA's 3 November policy meeting; Governor Bullock is also scheduled to speak at 11:15 AEST, adding a further policy overlay to an already data-heavy morning. The ASX 200, which closed at a seven-week high of 8,850.1 on Tuesday, faces a constructive but cautious open, with Materials the clear sector leadership story and Financials likely to remain under pressure until the CPI print clarifies the rate outlook.