WYS Critical Minerals · Thu 18 Jun 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · THURSDAY 18 JUNE 2026 · WYS EDITION 016

Data as of Wednesday 17 June 2026 close · Generated 18 June 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-260603_1310 / T-260601_1017

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

SUPPLY Rare Earths ▲ Bullish

USA Rare Earth Commissions Colorado Plant

USA Rare Earth advances domestic heavy rare earth oxide production with new hydrometallurgical facility targeting Q3 2026 output. This supports Western efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese processing dominance (85-90% of separation/refining). Bullish for non-Chinese supply chain diversification amid ongoing geopolitical risks.

POLICY Rare Earths ▲ Bullish

Ucore Signs Strategic Deal with Sumitomo

Ucore Rare Metals enters June 15 agreement with Sumitomo Corporation of Americas to advance RapidSX technology for rare earth separation. Focus on dysprosium, terbium and middle rare earths for EV motors and defense. Strengthens allied supply chains outside China.

SUPPLY Lithium ▲ Bullish

Lithium Prices Surge on CATL Mine Setback

Lithium carbonate prices rose after CATL scrapped key mine land approval, tightening near-term supply. Combined with Zimbabwe export restrictions impacting Chinese spodumene imports, spot prices spiked sharply in recent sessions. Bullish price signal amid 88% battery demand share.

SUPPLY Copper ▲ Bullish

Copper Supply Disruptions Fuel 2026 Deficit Forecasts

Mine outages, sulfuric acid shortages and permitting delays tighten copper supply as banks forecast 330k-600k tonne deficits for 2026. Demand from EVs, AI data centers and electrification adds pressure. Strongly bullish for prices despite softer Chinese industrial data.

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

Overnight USD Index rose 0.85% to 100.39 while AUD/USD fell 0.71%, placing downward pressure on AUD-denominated producers; critical minerals prices remained largely static with copper declining 1.83% to 6.37 USD/lb and vanadium 2.16% lower at 10.01 USD/kg, indicating limited immediate translation of macro moves into physical markets. Alligator Energy issued a force majeure notice halting follow-up drilling at the Big Lake Uranium Project in South Australia due to flood waters, though this affects only exploration and carries no near-term production impact. ASX-listed Alligator Energy faces direct operational delays while Energy Fuels (NYSE:UUUU) remains positioned for 1.6 million pounds U3O8 output at White Mesa Mill by mid-2026 from Pinyon Plain and La Sal ores.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

LITHIUMLithium carbonate held at 25009.96 USD/t with no overnight supply or offtake announcements from CATL or BYD.

GRAPHITEFlake graphite rose 3.70% to 560 USD/t amid steady Chinese domestic buying.

EVBYD confirmed plans to acquire an existing European factory for a second EV plant without new battery metal offtake details.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

CHINANo new Chinese MOFCOM export licensing changes reported with prior rare earth controls remaining suspended through November 2026.

SUPPLYNo fresh NdFeB magnet demand data or production updates from major processors overnight.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

GALLIUMGallium price unchanged at 264.22 USD/kg with no new export quota announcements from MIIT.

ANTIMONYAntimony held at 19562 USD/t absent fresh policy signals on Chinese supply.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDUSD Index advance to 100.39 exerted mild downward pressure on non-USD critical minerals producers.

CHINAChina PMI data release absent overnight leaving demand signals for copper and nickel muted.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Medium Impact 2–4 years

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Low Impact 3–5 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

High Impact Active

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery

Low Impact Ongoing

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery, rare_earth

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	6.360	▲ 2.75%	▲ 7.61%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	71.970	▲ 1.67%	▲ 6.51%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	2.130	▲ 3.90%	▼ 0.47%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	8.940	▲ 1.94%	▼ 0.45%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	0.535	▲ 0.00%	▲ 0.00%	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	18.100	▲ 0.67%	▼ 0.33%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.375	▲ 4.17%	▲ 2.74%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	10.650	▲ 3.60%	▼ 3.62%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.265	▲ 4.55%	▼ 0.78%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	21.500	▲ 2.97%	▲ 11.51%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.290	▲ 5.45%	▲ 11.54%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	7.900	▼ 0.13%	▲ 1.94%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.059	▲ 3.51%	▼ 1.67%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.049	▼ 2.00%	▼ 3.92%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.445	▲ 4.71%	▲ 9.88%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	3.500	▲ 0.57%	▲ 3.24%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.057	▼ 1.72%	▼ 8.06%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.555	▲ 16.84%	▲ 11.00%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.405	▼ 4.71%	▼ 8.99%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.485	▼ 1.02%	▼ 3.00%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.665	▲ 1.53%	▼ 4.32%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

WC8.AXWildcat ResourcesLithium▲ 16.84%

29M.AX29MetalsCopper/Zinc▲ 5.45%

GLN.AXGalan LithiumLithium▲ 4.71%

BOE.AXBoss EnergyUranium▲ 4.55%

ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths▲ 4.17%

▼ Top Losers

EUR.AXEuropean LithiumLithium▼ 4.71%

ASN.AXAnson ResourcesLithium▼ 2.00%

LKE.AXLake ResourcesLithium▼ 1.72%

GL1.AXGlobal Lithium ResourcesLithium▼ 1.02%

ILU.AXIluka ResourcesRare Earths/Zircon▼ 0.13%

21/21 watchlist stocks · prior close

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	60.840	▲ 6.64%	▲ 5.66%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	15.300	▼ 0.26%	▲ 0.59%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	105.670	▼ 2.05%	▲ 0.22%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	102.670	▼ 2.90%	▲ 1.72%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	4.420	▼ 0.67%	▼ 3.07%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	82.990	▼ 0.14%	▲ 14.06%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	105.670	▼ 2.55%	▲ 6.75%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	69.060	▼ 1.55%	▲ 8.06%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	15.530	▼ 2.82%	▲ 3.60%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▲ 6.64%

SQMSQMLithium▲ 0.14%

UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▲ 0.26%

LACLithium AmericasLithium▲ 0.67%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▲ 1.55%

▼ Top Losers

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▼ 2.90%

VALEValeNickel/Iron▼ 2.82%

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▼ 2.55%

CCJCamecoUranium▼ 2.05%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▼ 1.55%

9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	38.730	▼ 6.11%	▲ 1.76%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	44.380	▼ 1.64%	▲ 9.61%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	15.010	▼ 2.34%	▲ 11.68%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	14.830	▼ 0.40%	▲ 2.28%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	4.690	▲ 0.21%	▲ 9.32%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 0.21%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 0.40%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 1.64%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 2.34%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 6.11%

▼ Top Losers

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 6.11%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 2.34%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 1.64%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 0.40%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 0.21%

5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	19.430	▲ 1.62%	▲ 14.70%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	8.570	▼ 0.12%	▲ 2.76%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	8.800	▼ 2.55%	▼ 13.04%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	1.170	▲ 0.00%	▼ 0.85%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 1.62%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 0.00%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 0.12%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 2.55%

▼ Top Losers

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 2.55%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 0.12%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 0.00%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 1.62%

4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

6 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.77%

Best

Graphite (flake)

+3.70%

Worst

Vanadium

-2.16%

Battery metals showed minimal movement with lithium flat and graphite up 3.70% on steady demand absent new gigafactory news.

Rare Earths

5 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-13.10%

Best

Praseodymium Ox.

-13.10%

Worst

Praseodymium Ox.

-13.10%

Rare earths remained quiet with no Chinese policy shifts or magnet pricing updates overnight.

Strategic Metals

4 metals tracked

◆ Neutral

-0.04%

Best

Indium

-0.04%

Worst

Indium

-0.04%

Strategic metals prices held steady with gallium and germanium unchanged and no new export controls announced.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-0.91%

Best

Uranium (U3O8)

+0.18%

Worst

Nat. Gas

-2.01%

Uranium supply outlook improved as Energy Fuels confirmed progress toward 1.6 million pounds U3O8 output by mid-2026.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

◆ Neutral

+0.02%

Best

Zinc

+1.35%

Worst

Copper

-1.83%

Copper declined 1.83% amid stronger USD with no fresh China demand indicators released.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-1.19%

Best

Iron Ore

-0.27%

Worst

Silver

-2.80%

No oil or gas price moves reported that would alter the energy transition cost narrative overnight.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
00:30	AU	Westpac Consumer Confidence Change	High	3.5	None
00:30	AU	Westpac Consumer Confidence Index	Medium	83	None
01:30	AU	NAB Business Confidence	High	-23	None
01:30	AU	RBA Bulletin	Medium	None	None
03:00	CN	Balance of Trade	High	84.8	92.1
03:00	CN	Exports YoY	High	14.1	15
03:00	CN	Imports YoY	High	25.3	25
12:15	US	ADP Employment Change Weekly	Medium	30.5	None
12:30	US	Balance of Trade	Medium	-56.6	-56.1
12:30	US	Exports	Medium	318.8	None
12:30	US	Imports	Medium	375.4	None
14:00	US	Existing Home Sales	High	4.04	4.07
14:00	US	Existing Home Sales MoM	Medium	0.7	None
16:00	US	EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook	Medium	None	None
16:30	EU	ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	None	None
20:30	US	API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	-6.75	-3.4

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

SUPPLYMonitor Alligator Energy for any extension of force majeure beyond exploration activities at Big Lake.

GEOHeavy rain in western Queensland may affect additional Lake Eyre Basin uranium explorers in coming days.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.