WYS Critical Minerals · Tue 7 Jul 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · TUESDAY 7 JULY 2026 · WYS EDITION 037

Data as of Monday 6 July 2026 close · Generated 7 July 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-260619_1909 / T-260601_1017

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

SUPPLY Nickel ▼ Bearish

Indonesia Signals Higher 2026 Nickel Mining Quotas

Indonesia's Energy Ministry is considering raising nickel mining quotas to 360 million tonnes for 2026, up from ~260 million tonnes, reversing prior curbs. This has driven nickel prices to a 6-month low near $16,300-16,500/t amid oversupply concerns. Market sentiment weighs heavily on potential global surplus.

POLICY Rare Earths ▲ Bullish

China Rare Earth Export Controls Tighten, Japan Seeks Alternatives

China's export curbs have slashed dysprosium/terbium shipments to Japan to zero and yttrium by >90% YoY. Japan has begun extracting rare earths from discarded air conditioners in response. Ongoing controls continue to fragment supply chains for magnets and defense applications.

DEMAND Germanium ▲ Bullish

AI Demand Diverges Germanium and Indium Prices

Critical minerals AI demand is splitting germanium and indium pricing dynamics, with ex-China germanium prices surging 83% while domestic trends invert. This highlights emerging tech-driven demand signals amid broader critical minerals volatility.

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

Overnight macro showed the USD Index at 100.88 and AUD/USD at 0.6959 with minimal moves, yet copper rose 2.29% to 6.2545 USD/lb and lithium hydroxide climbed 3.40% to 143750 CNY/t, reflecting supply tightness overriding broad currency stability. The September 2025 Grasberg mudslide force majeure at Freeport-McMoRan’s Indonesian operation continues to drive refined copper balances into deficit, with 2026 output now 35% below the original 1.7 billion pounds guidance and cumulative losses estimated at 525-591 kt through end-2026. ASX-listed copper-exposed names such as BHP and Rio Tinto face direct margin pressure from the phased Grasberg restart shortfall while lithium developers monitor the 3.40% hydroxide price lift against stable spodumene SC6 at 2333 USD/t.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

LITHIUMLithium hydroxide rose 3.40% to 143750 CNY/t while carbonate held flat at 165250 CNY/t on SMM benchmarks.

EVPanasonic confirmed further timeline adjustments at its Kansas gigafactory tied to slower Tesla demand.

NICKELNickel traded up 0.40% to 16426 USD/t with no fresh LME inventory or cathode news from Chinese producers.

GIGAFACTORYNo new offtake signings or capacity updates emerged from CATL, BYD or LG Energy Solution overnight.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

EXPORTChina’s June 22 addition of MP Materials and USA Rare Earth to the dual-use export control list remains in force with no new enforcement actions.

NDFEБNeodymium oxide stayed at 176 USD/kg on cached pricing with no fresh Chinese domestic quotes from SMM or Antaike.

SUPPLYYichun lepidolite output commentary continued without new volume data or policy shifts affecting rare earth feedstocks.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

GALLIUMGallium held at 256 USD/kg with no overnight movement in Chinese export licence data.

GERMANIUMGermanium traded flat at 3417 USD/kg amid ongoing dual-use list restrictions.

ANTIMONYAntimony remained at 25450 USD/t with no new export control announcements from Beijing.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDUSD Index edged 0.02% higher to 100.88, providing limited support to dollar-denominated metal prices.

CHINAChina PMI data release was absent, leaving domestic demand signals reliant on prior SMM price stability.

TRADENo fresh tariff or export policy moves surfaced overnight beyond the established US entity restrictions.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Medium Impact 2–4 years

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Low Impact 3–5 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

High Impact Active

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery

Low Impact Ongoing

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery, rare_earth

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	5.140	▼ 1.72%	▼ 4.46%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	64.540	▼ 0.81%	▲ 0.62%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	1.655	▼ 2.93%	▼ 5.97%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	7.440	▼ 0.93%	▼ 2.62%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	—	—	—	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	18.060	▼ 0.88%	▼ 3.42%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.350	▼ 1.41%	▲ 6.06%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	9.920	▼ 0.60%	▲ 1.85%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.355	▲ 6.27%	▲ 27.83%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	19.280	▼ 0.31%	▲ 1.63%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.260	▼ 1.89%	▲ 6.12%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	6.880	▼ 1.71%	▼ 4.18%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.050	▼ 3.85%	▲ 4.17%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.043	▼ 2.27%	▼ 2.27%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.370	▲ 1.37%	▲ 2.78%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	3.050	▼ 1.29%	▼ 2.24%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.046	▲ 0.00%	▲ 4.55%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.520	▲ 0.00%	▲ 2.97%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.380	▼ 5.00%	▼ 3.80%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.470	▲ 6.82%	▲ 9.30%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.610	▼ 1.61%	▲ 1.67%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

GL1.AXGlobal Lithium ResourcesLithium▲ 6.82%

BOE.AXBoss EnergyUranium▲ 6.27%

GLN.AXGalan LithiumLithium▲ 1.37%

LKE.AXLake ResourcesLithium▲ 0.00%

WC8.AXWildcat ResourcesLithium▲ 0.00%

▼ Top Losers

EUR.AXEuropean LithiumLithium▼ 5.00%

AGY.AXArgosy MineralsLithium▼ 3.85%

LTR.AXLiontown ResourcesLithium▼ 2.93%

ASN.AXAnson ResourcesLithium▼ 2.27%

29M.AX29MetalsCopper/Zinc▼ 1.89%

20/21 watchlist stocks · prior close

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	53.010	▼ 0.56%	▼ 6.19%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	13.770	▼ 0.29%	▼ 8.38%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	97.500	▲ 0.99%	▼ 8.57%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	93.580	▼ 0.89%	▼ 0.48%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	3.820	▲ 1.60%	▼ 3.05%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	73.520	▲ 1.13%	▼ 2.73%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	98.200	▲ 1.20%	▲ 4.42%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	61.000	▲ 0.05%	▼ 1.36%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	15.090	▲ 0.67%	▲ 1.68%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

LACLithium AmericasLithium▲ 1.60%

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▲ 1.20%

SQMSQMLithium▲ 1.13%

CCJCamecoUranium▲ 0.99%

VALEValeNickel/Iron▲ 0.67%

▼ Top Losers

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▼ 0.89%

MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▼ 0.56%

UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▼ 0.29%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▼ 0.05%

VALEValeNickel/Iron▼ 0.67%

9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	34.800	▼ 1.00%	▲ 5.97%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	38.790	▼ 2.54%	▲ 5.55%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	13.110	▼ 1.06%	▲ 1.55%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	13.720	▼ 1.44%	▼ 4.32%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	4.610	▲ 1.54%	▲ 2.22%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 1.54%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 1.00%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 1.06%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 1.44%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 2.54%

▼ Top Losers

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 2.54%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 1.44%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 1.06%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 1.00%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 1.54%

5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	16.200	▲ 7.07%	▼ 6.30%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	7.290	▲ 5.65%	▼ 4.71%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	7.700	▲ 4.48%	▼ 4.11%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	1.150	▲ 0.00%	▲ 3.60%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 7.07%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 5.65%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 4.48%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 0.00%

▼ Top Losers

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 0.00%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 4.48%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 5.65%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 7.07%

4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

6 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.74%

Best

Lithium Hydroxide

+3.40%

Worst

Spodumene SC6

-0.09%

Lithium hydroxide rose 3.40% while nickel gained 0.40% on limited spot availability and no new gigafactory news.

Rare Earths

5 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

5 metal price(s) available — no change data

Neodymium oxide remained flat at 176 USD/kg under the ongoing Chinese export control framework with no fresh domestic pricing moves.

Strategic Metals

4 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

4 metal price(s) available — no change data

Gallium, germanium and antimony showed zero price movement amid sustained dual-use export restrictions.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.66%

Best

Nat. Gas

+1.72%

Worst

Uranium (U3O8)

-0.41%

Uranium (U3O8) declined 0.41% to 85.7 USD/lb with no new long-term contracting reported.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+1.54%

Best

Copper

+2.29%

Worst

Aluminium

+0.60%

Copper surged 2.29% to 6.2545 USD/lb on the locked-in 525-591 kt Grasberg supply loss through 2026.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+1.07%

Best

Silver

+3.58%

Worst

Iron Ore

-0.11%

Stable oil and gas prices provided no fresh narrative shift for the energy transition metals complex overnight.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
00:30	AU	Westpac Consumer Confidence Change	High	3.5	None
00:30	AU	Westpac Consumer Confidence Index	Medium	83	None
01:30	AU	NAB Business Confidence	High	-23	None
01:30	AU	RBA Bulletin	Medium	None	None
03:00	CN	Balance of Trade	High	84.8	92.1
03:00	CN	Exports YoY	High	14.1	15
03:00	CN	Imports YoY	High	25.3	25
12:15	US	ADP Employment Change Weekly	Medium	30.5	None
12:30	US	Balance of Trade	Medium	-56.6	-56.1
12:30	US	Exports	Medium	318.8	None
12:30	US	Imports	Medium	375.4	None
14:00	US	Existing Home Sales	High	4.04	4.07
14:00	US	Existing Home Sales MoM	Medium	0.7	None
16:00	US	EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook	Medium	None	None
16:30	EU	ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	None	None
20:30	US	API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	-6.75	-3.4

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

SUPPLYMonitor Freeport-McMoRan for any incremental Grasberg restart tonnage figures in the next 24 hours.

POLICYWatch for possible expansion of China’s dual-use list beyond the nine US entities named June 22.

DEMANDTrack Tesla demand data for further impact on Panasonic Kansas gigafactory timelines.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.