While You Slept/Critical Minerals archive← Thu 23 Jul 2026Mon 27 Jul 2026 →Free by email
PHC
While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition  ·  AI Buildout  ·  The Materials That Power Both
PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗  ·  FRIDAY 24 JULY 2026  ·  WYS EDITION 051
Data as of  Thursday 23 July 2026 close  ·  Generated  24 July 2026  7:00 AM AEST  ·  S-260714_2027 / T-260601_1017
Commodity Prices
Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals
↳ Background Context
Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite
Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets
Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium
Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum
Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron
Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.
Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy
Supply & Demand Signals
Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals
PRICE Lithium ▲ Bullish
Lithium prices more than double on demand surge
IEA's Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 reports lithium prices more than doubled in 2025-early 2026 amid strong energy storage demand and constrained supply. Gaps between demand and supply have narrowed but risks persist. Zimbabwe export restrictions add further pressure.
POLICY Cobalt ▲ Bullish
DRC cobalt export quota drives 130% price rise
Cobalt prices surged ~130% largely due to Democratic Republic of the Congo export restrictions and quotas. IEA highlights new risks for cobalt supply amid concentrated production. This tightens battery material markets significantly.
POLICY Gallium ▲ Bullish
Gallium prices 5x higher outside China on export controls
Export controls have caused sharp price divergence, with European gallium prices around five times Chinese domestic levels. Part of broader strategic minor minerals rally through early 2026. Highlights supply chain vulnerabilities.
PRICE Germanium ▲ Bullish
Germanium leads rare earth rally with 27.8% July surge
All tracked rare earth elements rose in July 2026, led by germanium +27.8%. Follows ongoing export controls and robust demand. Average basket gain 16.7% signals broad-based price strength.
POLICY Graphite ▲ Bullish
China export controls on graphite anode materials
October 2025 China controls on cathode precursors, graphite anodes, and battery equipment remain a key risk. Full disruption could impact over $300B in downstream production outside China. Mozambique also tightening graphite rules.
POLICY Rare Earths ▲ Bullish
China rare earth export controls create $6.5T downstream risk
April/October 2025 China controls on heavy rare earths expanded to products using Chinese tech, suspended until Nov 2026. IEA warns of major impacts on auto, defense, and energy sectors if fully implemented. Heavy rare earth prices elevated outside China.
Analysis
Overnight Briefing
Global Overview · What Moved & Why

Overnight the USD Index climbed 0.30% to 101.44 and the S&P 500 dropped 1.21%, driving copper 1.82% lower to 6.3335 USD/lb while most other critical minerals prices held flat including lithium carbonate at 146500 CNY/t and cobalt at 56290 USD/t. Uranium edged up 0.06% to 85.75 USD/lb and tungsten jumped 9.60% to 665.57 USD/mtu with no corresponding physical market catalysts. Lithium hydroxide rose 3.40% to 143750 CNY/t on thin trading. The sole supply-side item was Mutapa Energy Resources completing a $300 million funding round with Chinese investors to advance its Zimbabwe lithium assets, yet no production tonnage or commissioning dates were disclosed leaving near-term concentrate availability unchanged. No force majeure declarations, export quota adjustments or smelter curtailments emerged from China, DRC or Indonesia. ASX names with direct Zimbabwe lithium exposure including those linked to Mutapa assets face potential future output growth while major producers such as Albemarle and SQM see no overnight volume revisions from the capital inflow.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite
LITHIUMLithium hydroxide prices increased 3.40% to 143750 CNY/t with no gigafactory or EV sales data released by CATL or BYD.
LITHIUMSpodumene SC6 held at 2105 USD/t after Mutapa Energy Resources secured $300 million for Zimbabwe lithium development.
COBALTCobalt remained at 56290 USD/t with zero reported production cuts from DRC operations.
NICKELNickel closed unchanged at 16940 USD/t absent any Indonesian export policy updates.
EVNo new EV sales releases or inventory figures emerged from LG, Panasonic or Samsung SDI in the last 12 hours.
Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind
NDFEБNeodymium oxide stayed at 176 USD/kg with no Chinese magnet demand or pricing updates.
CHINANo MIIT or Ministry of Commerce announcements on rare earth export quotas were issued overnight.
SUPPLYSearches returned zero rare earth mine outages or policy shifts from China in the past 18 hours.
MAGNETNo NdFeB magnet supply chain news from major processors was recorded.
Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk
TUNGSTENTungsten APT rose 9.60% to 665.57 USD/mtu with no export control announcements from China.
GALLIUMGallium held at 248.52 USD/kg absent any new policy moves.
GERMANIUMGermanium closed at 3417.36 USD/kg with zero reported supply disruptions.
ANTIMONYAntimony remained at 25450 USD/t with no export ban developments.
Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation
USDUSD Index rose 0.30% to 101.44 pressuring copper 1.82% lower to 6.3335 USD/lb.
CHINANo China PMI or industrial output data was released in the overnight window.
RATESAUD/USD fell 0.29% to 0.697 with no direct impact on Australian critical minerals shipments.
TRADECNY/USD eased 0.04% to 6.7696 leaving Chinese domestic prices largely unchanged.
Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers
Medium Impact 2–4 years
Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk
CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.
Affects: battery
Low Impact 3–5 years
Solid-State Battery Commercialisation
Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.
Affects: battery
High Impact Active
China Critical Mineral Export Controls
China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.
Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery
Low Impact Ongoing
US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives
Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.
Affects: battery, rare_earth
Market Watch
ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers
Ticker Company Exposure Price Change 7d Mkt Cap
PLS.AXPilbara MineralsLithium4.230▲ 1.93%▼ 6.62%—
MIN.AXMineral ResourcesLithium/Iron54.820▲ 2.22%▼ 6.93%—
LTR.AXLiontown ResourcesLithium1.280▲ 3.64%▼ 9.86%—
IGO.AXIGO LtdLithium/Nickel6.910▲ 3.13%▲ 2.52%—
WR1.AXWinsome ResourcesLithium————
LYC.AXLynas Rare EarthsRare Earths15.110▼ 1.76%▼ 6.96%—
ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths0.345▲ 1.47%▼ 2.82%—
PDN.AXPaladin EnergyUranium10.190▲ 11.61%▲ 11.86%—
BOE.AXBoss EnergyUranium1.370▲ 4.98%▲ 9.60%—
SFR.AXSandfire ResourcesCopper19.360▲ 3.58%▲ 2.71%—
29M.AX29MetalsCopper/Zinc0.260▲ 10.64%▲ 10.64%—
ILU.AXIluka ResourcesRare Earths/Zircon6.160▲ 0.49%▼ 4.05%—
AGY.AXArgosy MineralsLithium0.042▼ 4.55%▼ 6.67%—
ASN.AXAnson ResourcesLithium0.045▲ 0.00%▲ 4.65%—
GLN.AXGalan LithiumLithium0.295▲ 1.72%▼ 6.35%—
VUL.AXVulcan Energy ResourcesLithium2.690▲ 1.89%▼ 2.54%—
LKE.AXLake ResourcesLithium0.042▲ 0.00%▲ 2.44%—
WC8.AXWildcat ResourcesLithium0.370▲ 2.78%▼ 14.94%—
EUR.AXEuropean LithiumLithium0.295▲ 3.51%▼ 9.23%—
GL1.AXGlobal Lithium ResourcesLithium0.495▼ 1.00%▲ 10.00%—
PMT.AXPMET ResourcesLithium0.475▲ 6.74%▼ 8.65%—
ASX Materials · Broader Movers
▲ Top Gainers
PDN.AXPaladin EnergyUranium▲ 11.61%
29M.AX29MetalsCopper/Zinc▲ 10.64%
PMT.AXPMET ResourcesLithium▲ 6.74%
BOE.AXBoss EnergyUranium▲ 4.98%
LTR.AXLiontown ResourcesLithium▲ 3.64%
▼ Top Losers
AGY.AXArgosy MineralsLithium▼ 4.55%
LYC.AXLynas Rare EarthsRare Earths▼ 1.76%
GL1.AXGlobal Lithium ResourcesLithium▼ 1.00%
LKE.AXLake ResourcesLithium▼ 0.00%
ASN.AXAnson ResourcesLithium▼ 0.00%
20/21 watchlist stocks · prior close
US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain
Ticker Company Exposure Price Change 7d Mkt Cap
MPMP MaterialsRare Earths44.650▼ 2.25%▼ 12.09%—
UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE12.010▼ 2.44%▼ 9.22%—
CCJCamecoUranium89.330▼ 1.15%▼ 2.45%—
RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron91.510▼ 0.83%▼ 1.91%—
LACLithium AmericasLithium2.910▼ 2.68%▼ 7.62%—
SQMSQMLithium69.320▲ 0.16%▼ 4.98%—
NEMNewmontGold/Copper94.720▼ 1.08%▼ 0.03%—
FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper63.500▼ 2.31%▲ 2.50%—
VALEValeNickel/Iron14.830▼ 0.13%▲ 1.64%—
NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers
▲ Top Gainers
SQMSQMLithium▲ 0.16%
VALEValeNickel/Iron▲ 0.13%
RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▲ 0.83%
NEMNewmontGold/Copper▲ 1.08%
CCJCamecoUranium▲ 1.15%
▼ Top Losers
LACLithium AmericasLithium▼ 2.68%
UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▼ 2.44%
FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▼ 2.31%
MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▼ 2.25%
CCJCamecoUranium▼ 1.15%
9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close
TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals
Ticker Company Exposure Price Change 7d Mkt Cap
LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc36.240▼ 3.23%▲ 2.46%—
FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper39.050▼ 0.38%▲ 0.28%—
CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper12.970▼ 3.64%▼ 2.85%—
NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium13.170▼ 1.05%▲ 0.08%—
DML.TODenison MinesUranium4.340▲ 0.93%▼ 2.69%—
TSX · Broader Movers
▲ Top Gainers
DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 0.93%
FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 0.38%
NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 1.05%
LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 3.23%
CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 3.64%
▼ Top Losers
CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 3.64%
LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 3.23%
NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 1.05%
FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 0.38%
DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 0.93%
5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close
HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners
Ticker Company Exposure Price Change 7d Mkt Cap
3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt17.360▲ 4.77%▲ 16.82%—
1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc8.470▲ 9.57%▲ 19.80%—
2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE8.120▲ 2.40%▲ 8.12%—
1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold1.130▲ 0.00%▲ 2.73%—
HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers
▲ Top Gainers
1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 9.57%
3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 4.77%
2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 2.40%
1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 0.00%
▼ Top Losers
1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 0.00%
2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 2.40%
3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 4.77%
1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 9.57%
4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close
Calendar & Risks
Metal Category Scorecard
Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers
Battery Metals
6 metals tracked
▲ Bullish
+3.40%
Best
Lithium Hydroxide
+3.40%
Worst
Lithium Hydroxide
+3.40%
Battery metals were quiet with lithium hydroxide up 3.40% on thin volume and spodumene unchanged at 2105 USD/t.
Rare Earths
5 metals tracked
— No Change Data
No change data this session
5 metal price(s) available — no change data
Rare earths showed no movement with neodymium oxide flat at 176 USD/kg and zero Chinese policy updates.
Strategic Metals
5 metals tracked
▲ Bullish
+4.77%
Best
Tungsten (APT)
+9.60%
Worst
Indium
-0.06%
Strategic metals were led by tungsten APT rising 9.60% to 665.57 USD/mtu while gallium and germanium held steady.
Energy Metals
2 metals tracked
⚑ Caution
-0.19%
Best
Uranium (U3O8)
+0.06%
Worst
Nat. Gas
-0.44%
Uranium edged 0.06% higher to 85.75 USD/lb with no new contracting or supply news.
Base Metals
6 metals tracked
▼ Bearish
-0.34%
Best
Aluminium
+0.12%
Worst
Copper
-1.82%
Copper fell 1.82% to 6.3335 USD/lb on USD Index strength with no China demand data released.
Competing Energy
5 metals tracked
▲ Bullish
+1.39%
Best
Brent Crude
+6.84%
Worst
Silver
-3.50%
No oil, gas or coal price moves were recorded that would alter the energy transition narrative overnight.
Economic & Industry Calendar
China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA
Time (AEST) Ctry Event Impact Prior Forecast
16:00GBRetail Sales m/mMedium1.2%-0.3%
17:15EUFrench Flash Manufacturing PMIMedium50.751.0
17:15EUFrench Flash Services PMIMedium47.447.5
17:30EUGerman Flash Manufacturing PMIMedium50.050.4
17:30EUGerman Flash Services PMIMedium46.849.0
18:30GBFlash Manufacturing PMIMedium53.152.0
18:30GBFlash Services PMIMedium48.749.4
Risks & Watch Items
Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch
SUPPLYZimbabwe lithium funding lacks disclosed production tonnage or commissioning timeline.
MACROUSD strength at 101.44 continues to weigh on copper and other USD-denominated prices.
GEOLonger-term copper grade decline commentary from Robert Friedland remains unlinked to any overnight event.
Get WYS Critical Minerals free in your inbox
Every weekday, before the ASX opens. No card, unsubscribe any time.
Sign up free →
or pick from all five reports