WYS Critical Minerals · Fri 31 Jul 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · FRIDAY 31 JULY 2026 · WYS EDITION 056

Data as of Thursday 30 July 2026 close · Generated 31 July 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-260714_2027 / T-260601_1017

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

SUPPLY Lithium ▲ Bullish

Zimbabwe H1 lithium exports surge 230%

Zimbabwe, Africa's top lithium producer, reported half-year exports up sharply to support strong Chinese demand. Exports generated significant revenue amid ongoing policy push for local processing by 2027. Signal indicates robust near-term supply flow despite export curbs.

DEMAND Lithium ▲ Bullish

E3 Lithium secures 10-year European hydroxide deal

Canadian developer E3 Lithium partnered with Tees Valley Lithium for conversion of 50kt lithium carbonate to battery-grade hydroxide. Deal highlights growing transatlantic demand and supply chain diversification efforts. Positive for non-Chinese lithium offtake.

SUPPLY Copper ▲ Bullish

NewRange Copper Nickel advances project milestones

Minnesota project notified regulators of design adjustments on July 29, keeping development on track for copper-nickel-cobalt output. Potential new North American supply source amid persistent global deficits. Supports long-term bullish copper outlook.

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

Overnight the USD Index slipped 0.80% to 99.99 while the S&P 500 gained 1.66%, with AUD/USD rising to 0.7032 and CNY/USD easing to 6.7545; the softer dollar lifted copper 3.44% to 6.489 USD/lb and indium 26.50% to 775.34 USD/kg, while lithium hydroxide climbed 3.40% to 143750 CNY/t. No Tier 1 mine outages, export bans or force majeure events were recorded between evening July 30 and morning July 31 2026 across China, Indonesia or the DRC. Lithium carbonate held unchanged at 146000 CNY/t and spodumene SC6 remained at 2095 USD/t. Canada Nickel received Ontario construction approval for the Crawford project with first production targeted for 2029, while Power Metallic Mines pushed its Nisk/Lion resource estimate to end-August 2026; Indonesia’s July 31 nickel RKAB quota decision stayed pending with no outcome released.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

LITHIUMLithium carbonate traded flat at 146000 CNY/t on July 30 while lithium hydroxide rose 3.40% to 143750 CNY/t.

NICKELNickel closed at 17160 USD/t up 0.12% with Indonesia’s July 31 RKAB quota decision still pending.

EVNo gigafactory or EV sales data releases from CATL, BYD, LG or Panasonic reported overnight.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

NDFEБNeodymium oxide held at 176 USD/kg with no Chinese pricing or export policy moves overnight.

SUPPLYNo new rare earth supply or magnet demand data emerged from Chinese sources in the 12-hour window.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

INDIUMIndium surged 26.50% to 775.34 USD/kg on the prior close.

TUNGSTENTungsten APT rose 9.60% to 665.57 USD/mtu.

GALLIUMGallium remained at 238 USD/kg with no export control updates.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDUSD Index fell 0.80% to 99.99 supporting non-ferrous price gains.

CHINAChina PMI data release was absent overnight.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Medium Impact 2–4 years

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Low Impact 3–5 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

High Impact Active

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery

Low Impact Ongoing

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery, rare_earth

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	4.210	▲ 2.68%	▲ 2.18%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	57.790	▲ 3.90%	▲ 9.68%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	0.985	▼ 10.86%	▼ 18.60%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	6.760	▼ 2.31%	▲ 3.84%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	—	—	—	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	13.810	▼ 2.06%	▼ 13.47%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.335	▼ 1.47%	▲ 0.00%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	8.800	▼ 0.68%	▲ 2.80%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.185	▼ 2.47%	▼ 7.06%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	18.510	▼ 0.59%	▲ 1.20%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.245	▲ 0.00%	▲ 6.52%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	5.770	▼ 4.15%	▼ 4.63%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.040	▼ 2.44%	▼ 2.44%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.042	▲ 0.00%	▲ 0.00%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.270	▼ 1.82%	▼ 5.26%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	2.480	▼ 3.50%	▼ 5.34%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.038	▼ 5.00%	▼ 7.32%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.325	▼ 1.52%	▼ 12.16%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.245	▼ 7.55%	▼ 9.26%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.515	▲ 1.98%	▲ 1.98%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.410	▼ 1.20%	▼ 5.75%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

MIN.AXMineral ResourcesLithium/Iron▲ 3.90%

PLS.AXPilbara MineralsLithium▲ 2.68%

GL1.AXGlobal Lithium ResourcesLithium▲ 1.98%

29M.AX29MetalsCopper/Zinc▲ 0.00%

ASN.AXAnson ResourcesLithium▲ 0.00%

▼ Top Losers

LTR.AXLiontown ResourcesLithium▼ 10.86%

EUR.AXEuropean LithiumLithium▼ 7.55%

LKE.AXLake ResourcesLithium▼ 5.00%

ILU.AXIluka ResourcesRare Earths/Zircon▼ 4.15%

VUL.AXVulcan Energy ResourcesLithium▼ 3.50%

20/21 watchlist stocks · prior close

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	41.660	▲ 9.34%	▼ 10.02%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	11.710	▲ 9.03%	▼ 5.18%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	88.230	▲ 4.33%	▼ 0.51%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	97.180	▲ 3.76%	▲ 7.32%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	2.890	▲ 6.64%	▼ 5.56%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	68.430	▲ 1.30%	▼ 0.60%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	95.760	▲ 4.84%	▲ 3.54%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	63.440	▲ 5.75%	▲ 1.41%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	14.990	▲ 2.32%	▲ 5.19%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▲ 9.34%

UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▲ 9.03%

LACLithium AmericasLithium▲ 6.64%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▲ 5.75%

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▲ 4.84%

▼ Top Losers

SQMSQMLithium▼ 1.30%

VALEValeNickel/Iron▼ 2.32%

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▼ 3.76%

CCJCamecoUranium▼ 4.33%

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▼ 4.84%

9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	35.610	▲ 3.10%	▼ 1.60%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	38.960	▲ 2.61%	▼ 1.57%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	13.250	▲ 3.52%	▼ 1.05%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	13.030	▲ 3.99%	▲ 1.01%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	4.080	▲ 7.65%	▼ 3.55%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 7.65%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 3.99%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 3.52%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 3.10%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 2.61%

▼ Top Losers

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 2.61%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 3.10%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 3.52%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 3.99%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 7.65%

5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	16.460	▼ 0.24%	▲ 2.05%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	8.050	▼ 1.11%	▲ 8.64%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	8.330	▲ 2.46%	▲ 4.52%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	1.160	▲ 0.87%	▲ 1.75%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 2.46%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 0.87%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 0.24%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 1.11%

▼ Top Losers

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 1.11%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 0.24%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 0.87%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 2.46%

4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

6 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.88%

Best

Lithium Hydroxide

+3.40%

Worst

Lithium Carb.

0.00%

Lithium hydroxide rose 3.40% while carbonate stayed flat and nickel edged 0.12% higher with no gigafactory news.

Rare Earths

5 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

5 metal price(s) available — no change data

Neodymium oxide unchanged at 176 USD/kg with no Chinese policy or magnet demand moves.

Strategic Metals

5 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+18.05%

Best

Indium

+26.50%

Worst

Tungsten (APT)

+9.60%

Indium jumped 26.50% and tungsten APT gained 9.60% while gallium and germanium held steady.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.77%

Best

Nat. Gas

+0.77%

Worst

Nat. Gas

+0.77%

Uranium U3O8 remained at 86.6 USD/lb with no contracting or vanadium price shifts.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+1.16%

Best

Copper

+3.44%

Worst

Lead

+0.08%

Copper advanced 3.44% to 6.489 USD/lb on USD weakness with no China demand data released.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.69%

Best

Gold

+3.13%

Worst

Brent Crude

-1.27%

No oil or coal price moves reported that alter the energy transition narrative overnight.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
09:30	JP	Tokyo Core CPI y/y	Medium	1.6%	1.8%
12:30	JP	BOJ Policy Rate	High	<1.00%	<1.00%
12:30	JP	Monetary Policy Statement	High	—	—
12:31	JP	BOJ Outlook Report	High	—	—
15:30	JP	BOJ Press Conference	High	—	—
19:00	EU	Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y	Medium	2.4%	2.4%
19:00	EU	CPI Flash Estimate y/y	Medium	2.8%	2.9%
22:30	US	Employment Cost Index q/q	Medium	0.9%	0.8%

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

POLICYIndonesia nickel RKAB quota outcome due July 31 remains the next potential supply signal.

SUPPLYCanada Nickel Crawford project received Ontario construction approval with first production targeted 2029.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.