WYS Critical Minerals · Wed 19 Aug 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · WEDNESDAY 19 AUGUST 2026 · WYS EDITION 069

Data as of Tuesday 18 August 2026 close · Generated 19 August 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-260714_2027 / T-260601_1017

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

SUPPLY Copper ▲ Bullish

Persistent Supply Disruptions Tighten Copper Market

Production challenges in Chile and Peru continue due to declining ore grades and water constraints, with LME inventories at notably low levels. Investors are treating copper as a geopolitical asset amid macro support and potential US tariffs on refined copper in 2026. Prices have broken above long-term channels on structural supply deficits.

POLICY Cobalt ▲ Bullish

DRC Export Quotas Cap Cobalt Supply Through 2027

The DRC maintains formal export quotas via ARECOMS, capping output well below prior levels after 2025 restrictions. This has supported prices doubling from lows, though Chinese refiners dominate processing. Western efforts to diversify supply chains gain traction amid ongoing tightness.

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

USD Index edged up 0.03% to 99.67 while copper dropped 2.23% to 6.4565 USD/lb and lithium hydroxide fell 2.10% to 128000 CNY/t, reflecting equity market weakness with S&P 500 down 0.69% and limited overnight mineral-specific price catalysts. China July 2026 power battery installations reached 74.6 GWh, up 33.5% YoY and led by LFP at 63.1 GWh, with CATL holding 42.33% share, providing the clearest demand signal amid flat cobalt, nickel and rare earth oxide prices. ASX-exposed producers face indirect pressure from the 80% drop in Japan’s Chinese critical minerals imports and the absence of fresh supply shocks, keeping attention on downstream battery installation growth rather than upstream output changes.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

EVChina July 2026 power battery installations reached 74.6 GWh, up 33.5% YoY with LFP at 63.1 GWh.

LITHIUMLithium carbonate rose 0.33% to 153500 CNY/t while lithium hydroxide fell 2.10% to 128000 CNY/t at prior close.

GIGAFACTORYCATL held 42.33% share and BYD 19.23% of China July power battery installations.

NICKELNickel closed at 16775 USD/t, up 0.15%, with no fresh Indonesia or Russia supply updates.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

EXPORTJapan’s imports of Chinese critical minerals fell 80% amid ongoing export controls.

SUPPLYNo new Chinese rare earth export quotas or MIIT actions were announced overnight.

NDFEБNeodymium oxide held at 101 USD/kg with zero price change at prior close.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

POLICYUS DOE selected nine projects for up to 162 million USD to recover scandium, copper, antimony and rare earths from mine waste.

ANTIMONYAntimony closed at 25450 USD/t with no fresh Chinese or DRC policy moves.

GALLIUMGallium held at 237 USD/kg and germanium at 3104 USD/kg with zero overnight movement.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDUSD Index rose 0.03% to 99.67, pressuring copper which fell 2.23% to 6.4565 USD/lb.

CHINAChina July power battery data showed 33.5% YoY growth but no new PMI release overnight.

TRADEJapan’s 80% drop in Chinese critical minerals imports highlights ongoing export control effects.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Medium Impact 2–4 years

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Low Impact 3–5 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

High Impact Active

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery

Low Impact Ongoing

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery, rare_earth

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	4.930	▼ 3.14%	▲ 7.64%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	64.620	▼ 3.84%	▲ 0.70%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	1.205	▼ 7.31%	▲ 2.12%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	7.950	▼ 2.45%	▲ 6.71%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	—	—	—	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	16.500	▼ 0.72%	▲ 1.54%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.360	▲ 1.41%	▲ 0.00%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	10.740	▲ 1.80%	▲ 5.81%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.530	▲ 0.66%	▲ 14.61%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	20.850	▼ 2.02%	▼ 1.18%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.310	▼ 3.13%	▼ 1.59%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	7.090	▼ 1.25%	▲ 0.14%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.046	▼ 6.12%	▲ 2.22%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.045	▲ 0.00%	▲ 0.00%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.370	▼ 3.90%	▲ 17.46%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	2.760	▼ 6.44%	▼ 3.50%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.046	▼ 4.17%	▲ 4.55%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.405	▼ 4.71%	▲ 5.19%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.290	▼ 3.33%	▼ 1.69%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.700	▼ 3.45%	▲ 20.69%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.485	▼ 4.90%	▲ 4.30%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

PDN.AXPaladin EnergyUranium▲ 1.80%

ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths▲ 1.41%

BOE.AXBoss EnergyUranium▲ 0.66%

ASN.AXAnson ResourcesLithium▲ 0.00%

LYC.AXLynas Rare EarthsRare Earths▲ 0.72%

▼ Top Losers

LTR.AXLiontown ResourcesLithium▼ 7.31%

VUL.AXVulcan Energy ResourcesLithium▼ 6.44%

AGY.AXArgosy MineralsLithium▼ 6.12%

PMT.AXPMET ResourcesLithium▼ 4.90%

WC8.AXWildcat ResourcesLithium▼ 4.71%

20/21 watchlist stocks · prior close

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	56.670	▼ 3.14%	▲ 10.88%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	14.090	▼ 4.73%	▼ 0.35%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	96.030	▼ 2.59%	▼ 1.40%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	96.690	▼ 0.53%	▼ 4.36%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	2.960	▼ 6.03%	▼ 8.36%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	74.470	▼ 0.84%	▲ 3.50%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	115.980	▼ 3.62%	▲ 2.66%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	66.320	▼ 3.01%	▼ 4.74%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	13.680	▼ 0.51%	▼ 7.00%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

VALEValeNickel/Iron▲ 0.51%

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▲ 0.53%

SQMSQMLithium▲ 0.84%

CCJCamecoUranium▲ 2.59%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▲ 3.01%

▼ Top Losers

LACLithium AmericasLithium▼ 6.03%

UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▼ 4.73%

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▼ 3.62%

MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▼ 3.14%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▼ 3.01%

9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	35.530	▼ 1.77%	▼ 5.66%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	43.460	▼ 2.75%	▼ 0.48%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	14.820	▼ 2.11%	▼ 3.95%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	14.260	▼ 4.36%	▼ 1.79%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	4.380	▼ 0.68%	▼ 2.45%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 0.68%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 1.77%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 2.11%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 2.75%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 4.36%

▼ Top Losers

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 4.36%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 2.75%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 2.11%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 1.77%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 0.68%

5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	17.640	▲ 3.70%	▼ 6.22%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	9.025	▲ 7.25%	▼ 1.96%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	8.560	▲ 4.58%	▲ 1.84%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	1.160	▲ 1.75%	▲ 3.57%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 7.25%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 4.58%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 3.70%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 1.75%

▼ Top Losers

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 1.75%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 3.70%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 4.58%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 7.25%

4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

7 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-0.32%

Best

Lithium Carb.

+0.33%

Worst

Lithium Hydroxide

-2.10%

China July battery installations rose 33.5% YoY to 74.6 GWh, lifting lithium carbonate while hydroxide eased on month-on-month softness.

Rare Earths

5 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

5 metal price(s) available — no change data

Neodymium oxide unchanged at 101 USD/kg as Japan’s 80% import decline from China signals persistent export control pressure.

Strategic Metals

5 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

5 metal price(s) available — no change data

US DOE 162 million USD funding targets secondary recovery of antimony, gallium and rare earths with no immediate price impact.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+2.06%

Best

Nat. Gas

+3.79%

Worst

Uranium (U3O8)

+0.34%

Uranium held at 87.75 USD/lb with zero fresh contracting or mine output data overnight.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-2.23%

Best

Copper

-2.23%

Worst

Copper

-2.23%

Copper fell 2.23% to 6.4565 USD/lb on USD strength and equity weakness with no LME inventory or China demand surprises.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-0.92%

Best

Brent Crude

+0.48%

Worst

Silver

-4.12%

No oil, gas or coal price moves reported that alter the energy transition narrative for critical minerals.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
11:30	AU	Wage Price Index q/q	Medium	0.8%	0.8%
16:00	GB	CPI y/y	High	2.6%	2.9%
17:10	EU	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	Medium	—	—
20:15	EU	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	Medium	—	—

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

GEOJapan’s 80% import drop from China remains the key trade flow to monitor for further critical minerals tightening.

SUPPLYUS DOE waste recovery projects could add secondary supply of scandium, antimony and rare earths within 24-36 months.

DEMANDChina August battery installation data due next month will test whether July’s 33.5% YoY growth sustains.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.