WYS Critical Minerals · Fri 21 Aug 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · FRIDAY 21 AUGUST 2026 · WYS EDITION 071

Data as of Thursday 20 August 2026 close · Generated 21 August 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-260714_2027 / T-260601_1017

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

PRICE Lithium ▼ Bearish

Lithium carbonate prices fall to 151,000 CNY/T

Lithium prices declined 0.43% to 151,000 CNY/T on August 20 amid higher global supply and downside consumption risks. Prices hit lows near CNY 140,000 earlier in August, their weakest in nearly six months.

DEMAND Lithium ▲ Bullish

Cummins wins major US data center BESS contract

Cummins announced selection on August 18 to supply 5MWh lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery energy storage systems for a large US data center project to manage AI-driven loads. Multiple battery gigafactory and storage projects continue to advance globally.

POLICY Cobalt ▲ Bullish

DRC export quota sustains cobalt supply tightness

Ongoing DRC export restrictions and quotas have driven cobalt prices up ~130% since early 2025. New supply gap risks have emerged in the IEA 2026 outlook due to policy shifts in the dominant producer.

SUPPLY Copper ● Neutral

Copper supply deficit outlook improves modestly

IEA projects narrower 2035 copper supply deficit of 25% vs prior 30% estimate as new projects advance in DRC and Zambia. Structural deficits persist through 2035 amid record prices earlier in 2026.

POLICY Gallium ▲ Bullish

Export controls widen gallium price gap

Chinese export controls have pushed European gallium prices to ~5x Chinese domestic levels. Similar divergences noted for germanium (~3x) and heavy rare earths amid ongoing restrictions.

POLICY Rare Earths ▲ Bullish

Rare earth export curbs create persistent supply risks

April/October 2025 Chinese controls on heavy rare earths and downstream products remain in force with suspension until Nov 2026. Price gaps and downstream production risks estimated at trillions USD persist.

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

Overnight the USD Index edged 0.03% higher to 98.86 while the S&P 500 dropped 0.87%, with AUD/USD at 0.7116 and CNY/USD at 6.722. These moves aligned with lithium carbonate falling 0.43% to 151000 CNY/t and lithium hydroxide declining 2.10% to 128000 CNY/t, while uranium rose 0.46% to 88.25 USD/lb and copper slipped 0.05% to 6.4845 USD/lb. The principal supply signal remains the lingering impact of Freeport-McMoRan’s PT Freeport Indonesia Grasberg mud-rush force majeure, which continues to project a 591 kt copper output loss through end-2026 with no fresh outages reported at any Tier-1 lithium, cobalt or nickel sites. Demand data showed global EV battery installations at 608.5 GWh in H1 2026, CATL holding 39.9% share at 242.7 GWh. Freeport-McMoRan’s Indonesian copper operations stay most directly exposed to the ongoing Grasberg curtailment, while Lilac Solutions, Jervois and Nth Cycle each received $100 million US Department of Energy grants for domestic lithium and cobalt processing announced 20 August.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

LITHIUMLithium carbonate closed at 151000 CNY/t down 0.43% and lithium hydroxide at 128000 CNY/t down 2.10% with no fresh Chinese price updates from SMM or Fastmarkets.

EVGlobal EV battery installations reached 608.5 GWh in H1 2026, CATL at 39.9% share (242.7 GWh) and BYD at 14.4% (87.7 GWh).

COBALTCobalt held steady at 56290 USD/t with no new DRC export policy changes or mine outages overnight.

NICKELNickel traded unchanged at 16680 USD/t amid absence of new Indonesian quota or force majeure announcements.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

CHINA|EXPORTChina’s dual-use export controls on rare earths and magnets targeting specific US entities remain effective from mid-2026 with no overnight modifications.

NDFEБNeodymium oxide held at 106.0 USD/kg with no new Chinese domestic pricing from Antaike.

SUPPLYNo fresh rare earth mine or separation plant disruptions reported in the last 12-18 hours.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

GALLIUMGallium remained at 237.06 USD/kg on cached data with no new MIIT quota or export licensing updates.

GERMANIUMGermanium traded at 3104.31 USD/kg unchanged amid ongoing Chinese dual-use controls.

ANTIMONYAntimony held at 25450 USD/t with no fresh policy announcements from China or Russia.

POLICYUS DOE $500 million grants to Lilac Solutions, Jervois and Nth Cycle target domestic lithium cobalt and battery materials processing.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDUSD Index rose 0.03% to 98.86 coinciding with modest declines in lithium carbonate and hydroxide prices.

CHINAChina PMI data release was absent from overnight coverage leaving industrial demand signals unchanged.

ENERGYUranium (U3O8) advanced 0.46% to 88.25 USD/lb while broader energy transition demand data stayed limited to H1 2026 EV battery figures.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Medium Impact 2–4 years

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Low Impact 3–5 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

High Impact Active

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery

Low Impact Ongoing

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery, rare_earth

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	4.830	▲ 1.47%	▲ 3.21%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	65.520	▲ 0.17%	▲ 0.46%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	1.205	▲ 4.78%	▲ 2.12%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	8.040	▲ 1.77%	▲ 3.08%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	—	—	—	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	16.220	▼ 0.37%	▼ 2.93%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.365	▼ 2.67%	▲ 2.82%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	10.400	▲ 0.58%	▼ 2.35%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.510	▲ 1.34%	▲ 3.07%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	21.470	▲ 2.73%	▲ 0.70%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.320	▲ 3.23%	▲ 1.59%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	7.050	▲ 1.73%	▼ 4.47%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.044	▼ 4.35%	▼ 6.38%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.044	▼ 2.22%	▼ 4.35%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.365	▲ 0.00%	▲ 8.96%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	2.730	▲ 1.11%	▼ 11.07%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.046	▼ 2.13%	▼ 19.30%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.390	▲ 0.00%	▲ 0.00%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.325	▲ 0.00%	▲ 4.84%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.700	▲ 0.00%	▲ 11.11%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.490	▲ 3.16%	▼ 2.97%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

LTR.AXLiontown ResourcesLithium▲ 4.78%

29M.AX29MetalsCopper/Zinc▲ 3.23%

PMT.AXPMET ResourcesLithium▲ 3.16%

SFR.AXSandfire ResourcesCopper▲ 2.73%

IGO.AXIGO LtdLithium/Nickel▲ 1.77%

▼ Top Losers

AGY.AXArgosy MineralsLithium▼ 4.35%

ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths▼ 2.67%

ASN.AXAnson ResourcesLithium▼ 2.22%

LKE.AXLake ResourcesLithium▼ 2.13%

LYC.AXLynas Rare EarthsRare Earths▼ 0.37%

20/21 watchlist stocks · prior close

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	55.040	▼ 2.89%	▼ 0.36%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	13.900	▼ 6.40%	▼ 5.95%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	95.590	▼ 2.44%	▼ 3.18%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	102.170	▲ 1.72%	▲ 1.17%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	2.970	▼ 1.00%	▼ 8.62%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	78.450	▲ 4.07%	▲ 8.63%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	127.640	▲ 2.05%	▲ 8.90%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	71.220	▲ 3.08%	▲ 3.41%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	14.230	▲ 2.37%	▼ 0.63%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

SQMSQMLithium▲ 4.07%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▲ 3.08%

VALEValeNickel/Iron▲ 2.37%

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▲ 2.05%

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▲ 1.72%

▼ Top Losers

UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▼ 6.40%

MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▼ 2.89%

CCJCamecoUranium▼ 2.44%

LACLithium AmericasLithium▼ 1.00%

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▼ 1.72%

9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	36.110	▲ 2.44%	▼ 2.17%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	46.010	▲ 4.02%	▲ 4.24%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	15.400	▲ 1.32%	▼ 1.66%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	14.090	▼ 3.16%	▼ 3.95%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	4.340	▼ 2.47%	▼ 5.45%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 4.02%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 2.44%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 1.32%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 2.47%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 3.16%

▼ Top Losers

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 3.16%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 2.47%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 1.32%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 2.44%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 4.02%

5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	16.500	▼ 3.45%	▼ 12.65%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	9.080	▼ 1.30%	▼ 2.68%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	8.210	▼ 1.62%	▼ 5.90%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	1.055	▼ 1.86%	▼ 8.26%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 1.30%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 1.62%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 1.86%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 3.45%

▼ Top Losers

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 3.45%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 1.86%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 1.62%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 1.30%

4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

7 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-0.63%

Best

Spodumene SC6

0.00%

Worst

Lithium Hydroxide

-2.10%

Lithium carbonate and hydroxide prices declined on quiet overnight session while H1 2026 EV battery data showed 20% YoY growth led by CATL.

Rare Earths

5 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

5 metal price(s) available — no change data

Neodymium oxide unchanged at 106 USD/kg with Chinese export controls on magnets remaining in place without modification.

Strategic Metals

5 metals tracked

◆ Neutral

0.00%

Best

Antimony

0.00%

Worst

Antimony

0.00%

Gallium germanium and antimony prices held steady on cached data amid ongoing Chinese dual-use export controls.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-0.60%

Best

Uranium (U3O8)

+0.46%

Worst

Nat. Gas

-1.67%

Uranium rose 0.46% to 88.25 USD/lb with no new supply or contracting developments reported.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-0.45%

Best

Copper

-0.05%

Worst

Aluminium

-0.85%

Copper slipped 0.05% to 6.4845 USD/lb as Grasberg force majeure supply loss of 591 kt continues to overhang the market.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+1.62%

Best

Silver

+3.65%

Worst

Iron Ore

-0.12%

S&P 500 decline of 0.87% occurred alongside modest uranium price gain without altering energy transition demand narrative.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
16:00	GB	Retail Sales m/m	Medium	1.0%	-0.5%
17:15	EU	French Flash Manufacturing PMI	Medium	50.0	50.1
17:15	EU	French Flash Services PMI	Medium	49.8	49.4
17:30	EU	German Flash Manufacturing PMI	Medium	52.2	52.1
17:30	EU	German Flash Services PMI	Medium	49.6	50.1
18:30	GB	Flash Manufacturing PMI	Medium	52.8	51.6
18:30	GB	Flash Services PMI	Medium	51.8	51.8

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

SUPPLYMonitor ongoing Grasberg 591 kt copper loss trajectory through end-2026 for refined market deficit signals.

POLICYWatch for any modification to China’s mid-2026 dual-use rare earth export controls targeting US entities.

DEMANDTrack follow-through from 608.5 GWh H1 2026 EV battery installations into Q3 gigafactory offtake data.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.