WYS Critical Minerals · Wed 26 Aug 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · WEDNESDAY 26 AUGUST 2026 · WYS EDITION 074

Data as of Tuesday 25 August 2026 close · Generated 26 August 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-260714_2027 / T-260601_1017

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

POLICY Cobalt ▲ Bullish

DRC Bans Copper-Cobalt Concentrate Exports

Congo has banned exports of copper and cobalt concentrates, tightening supply amid existing quotas. IEA warns of cobalt market deficit starting 2026 as DRC curbs bite. Prices may face upward pressure from reduced availability.

SUPPLY Cobalt ▲ Bullish

DRC May Cut Cobalt Quota for Market Rebalancing

DRC authorities signal potential reduction in 2026 cobalt export quota if oversupply risks emerge. Combined with recent bans, this reinforces supply constraints from the dominant producer. Market faces structural tightening.

PRICE Copper ▲ Bullish

Copper Prices Signal Deeper Supply Squeeze

Sprott highlights ongoing copper price rally as evidence of tightening supply fundamentals. Mine disruptions and smelter pressures persist globally. US prepares $1B loan for Ivanhoe Santa Cruz project to bolster domestic output.

SUPPLY Rare Earths ▲ Bullish

Greenland Grants Rare Earths Exploration License

Greenland Mines secures exploration license for Sarfartoq rare earths project. Development adds potential non-Chinese supply option amid ongoing export restriction concerns. Long-term bullish for diversified sourcing.

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

USD Index slipped 0.10% to 98.91 with CNY/USD at 6.7198, producing modest downside pressure on battery metals while copper gained 1.69% to 6.7105 USD/lb on LME positioning. Lithium carbonate fell 2.18% to 157000 CNY/t, reversing part of the prior 7.17% monthly advance, as no fresh Chinese demand data emerged overnight. Energy Fuels shareholder approval for the Australian Strategic Materials acquisition and Lithium Argentina's $180 million Ganfeng investment plus $220 million debt close for Cauchari-Olaroz set the equity tone ahead of ASX open.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

LITHIUMLithium carbonate prices fell 2.18% to 157000 CNY/t on August 25, reversing recent monthly gains.

LITHIUMLithium Argentina closed $180 million Ganfeng strategic investment and $220 million debt facilities for Cauchari-Olaroz on August 24.

LITHIUMSpodumene SC6 declined 1.96% to 2250 USD/t while lithium hydroxide rose 3.08% to 134000 CNY/t.

EVNo new gigafactory inventory or EV demand announcements surfaced in the 12-18 hour window.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

NDFEБNeodymium oxide prices dropped 5.99% to 157 USD/kg on August 25 with no Chinese policy update.

SUPPLYEnergy Fuels received shareholder approval August 12 for Australian Strategic Materials acquisition, advancing rare earth capabilities.

CHINANo new MIIT or MOFCOM rare earth export restrictions reported overnight.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

GALLIUMGallium held at 235 USD/kg with zero overnight movement or export control news.

GERMANIUMGermanium remained at 3104 USD/kg, no Chinese policy shift detected.

ANTIMONYAntimony traded flat at 25450 USD/t amid stable supply conditions.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDUSD Index at 98.91 down 0.10% provided mild support for USD-denominated metals pricing.

CHINAChina PMI data absent overnight, leaving industrial demand signals unchanged.

TRADEAUD/USD rose 0.18% to 0.7168, offering limited relief to Australian producers.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Medium Impact 2–4 years

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Low Impact 3–5 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

High Impact Active

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery

Low Impact Ongoing

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery, rare_earth

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	5.140	▼ 6.03%	▲ 5.54%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	66.680	▼ 3.46%	▲ 1.05%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	1.210	▼ 8.68%	▼ 5.10%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	8.340	▼ 4.90%	▲ 5.70%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	—	—	—	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	16.590	▲ 1.10%	▲ 1.41%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.405	▲ 2.53%	▲ 20.90%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	11.960	▲ 2.22%	▲ 18.07%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.770	▲ 4.12%	▲ 22.07%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	22.780	▲ 1.52%	▲ 9.31%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.340	▼ 2.86%	▲ 9.68%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	7.190	▼ 1.78%	▲ 1.41%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.045	▲ 2.27%	▼ 8.16%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.046	▲ 0.00%	▲ 0.00%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.380	▼ 2.56%	▲ 2.70%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	2.760	▼ 1.78%	▼ 5.80%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.049	▼ 3.92%	▲ 2.08%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.405	▼ 5.81%	▼ 8.99%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.335	▼ 5.63%	▲ 13.56%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.715	▼ 4.67%	▲ 0.00%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.525	▲ 0.00%	▲ 5.00%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

BOE.AXBoss EnergyUranium▲ 4.12%

ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths▲ 2.53%

AGY.AXArgosy MineralsLithium▲ 2.27%

PDN.AXPaladin EnergyUranium▲ 2.22%

SFR.AXSandfire ResourcesCopper▲ 1.52%

▼ Top Losers

LTR.AXLiontown ResourcesLithium▼ 8.68%

PLS.AXPilbara MineralsLithium▼ 6.03%

WC8.AXWildcat ResourcesLithium▼ 5.81%

EUR.AXEuropean LithiumLithium▼ 5.63%

IGO.AXIGO LtdLithium/Nickel▼ 4.90%

20/21 watchlist stocks · prior close

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	60.170	▲ 4.79%	▲ 2.43%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	15.970	▲ 7.33%	▲ 5.76%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	106.960	▲ 4.59%	▲ 9.43%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	106.810	▲ 1.92%	▲ 11.63%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	3.250	▲ 4.50%	▼ 3.85%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	79.210	▼ 3.79%	▲ 6.58%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	135.140	▲ 2.50%	▲ 14.76%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	79.910	▲ 2.71%	▲ 20.18%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	15.330	▲ 1.93%	▲ 12.47%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▲ 7.33%

MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▲ 4.79%

CCJCamecoUranium▲ 4.59%

LACLithium AmericasLithium▲ 4.50%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▲ 2.71%

▼ Top Losers

SQMSQMLithium▼ 3.79%

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▼ 1.92%

VALEValeNickel/Iron▼ 1.93%

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▼ 2.50%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▼ 2.71%

9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	38.500	▲ 1.05%	▲ 9.00%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	48.690	▲ 2.20%	▲ 11.55%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	16.540	▼ 0.48%	▲ 9.54%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	15.490	▲ 2.38%	▲ 7.64%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	5.130	▲ 4.91%	▲ 14.77%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 4.91%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 2.38%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 2.20%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 1.05%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 0.48%

▼ Top Losers

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 0.48%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 1.05%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 2.20%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 2.38%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 4.91%

5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	17.300	▲ 1.76%	▼ 0.17%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	9.325	▲ 0.00%	▲ 11.54%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	8.575	▲ 2.08%	▲ 4.13%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	1.060	▲ 0.00%	▼ 7.02%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 2.08%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 1.76%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 0.00%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 0.00%

▼ Top Losers

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 0.00%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 0.00%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 1.76%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 2.08%

4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

7 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-0.35%

Best

Lithium Hydroxide

+3.08%

Worst

Lithium Carb.

-2.18%

Lithium carbonate fell 2.18% to 157000 CNY/t on thin trading with no fresh EV or gigafactory data to alter the direction.

Rare Earths

5 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-5.99%

Best

Neodymium Oxide

-5.99%

Worst

Neodymium Oxide

-5.99%

Neodymium oxide dropped 5.99% while Energy Fuels advanced its rare earth strategy via the ASM acquisition approval.

Strategic Metals

5 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

5 metal price(s) available — no change data

Gallium, germanium and antimony prices held flat with no export control announcements from China overnight.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+1.49%

Best

Nat. Gas

+2.19%

Worst

Uranium (U3O8)

+0.79%

Uranium U3O8 rose 0.79% to 89.55 USD/lb amid steady contracting and no new mine supply signals.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.64%

Best

Copper

+1.69%

Worst

Lead

-0.51%

Copper gained 1.69% to 6.7105 USD/lb as Grasberg disruption remains the dominant 2026 supply constraint.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-1.89%

Best

Gold

+1.67%

Worst

Brent Crude

-6.91%

S&P 500 rose 0.32% with no oil or coal price moves reported to shift the energy transition narrative.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
00:00	US	CB Consumer Confidence	Medium	90.8	90.3
11:30	AU	CPI m/m	High	-0.1%	0.9%
11:30	AU	CPI y/y	High	3.8%	3.3%
11:30	AU	Trimmed Mean CPI m/m	High	0.3%	0.4%
22:30	US	Core PCE Price Index m/m	High	0.1%	0.2%
22:30	US	Prelim GDP q/q	High	1.5%	1.5%
22:30	US	Prelim GDP Price Index q/q	Medium	6.2%	6.2%

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

SUPPLYMonitor Freeport-McMoRan Grasberg updates for any extension of 2026 production curtailment.

POLICYWatch for August China PMI release that could shift battery metals demand outlook.

GEOTrack Ganfeng Lithium funding flows into Lithium Argentina Cauchari-Olaroz for commissioning timeline.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.