WYS Critical Minerals · Fri 28 Aug 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · FRIDAY 28 AUGUST 2026 · WYS EDITION 076

Data as of Thursday 27 August 2026 close · Generated 28 August 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-260714_2027 / T-260601_1017

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

SUPPLY Lithium ▲ Bullish

CATL Jianxiawo Mine Restart Stalled, Risking Deficit

The restart of CATL's Jianxiawo lithium mine in Jiangxi remains delayed pending environmental approvals, with no ore loading observed in early August. This outage, representing ~3-5% of global supply, is tightening the market and supporting a rebound in lithium carbonate prices to ~152,500 yuan/t. Analysts warn prolonged disruption could eliminate 2026 surplus entirely.

PRICE Lithium ▲ Bullish

BMI Lifts 2026 Lithium Price Forecasts on Disruptions

BMI raised its 2026 Chinese lithium carbonate forecast to $20,100/t amid persistent supply issues and resilient energy storage demand. Global supply growth projected at 13.2% but demand slowdown to 5.8% still leaves near-term tightness; surplus now expected later in 2027.

POLICY Graphite ▲ Bullish

Western Efforts Advance to Loosen China's Graphite Dominance

New alliances and projects target China's 78% mine and >90% spherical graphite control. Policy support emphasized as Chinese pricing pressures Western margins; graphite export curbs since 2023 continue to highlight supply chain risks for battery anodes.

POLICY Rare Earths ▲ Bullish

China Export Controls Maintain Price Divergence and Risks

Ongoing Chinese restrictions on heavy rare earths and related materials sustain 3-5x price premiums ex-China for gallium, germanium, dysprosium and yttrium. Full implementation of suspended Nov 2026 measures could jeopardize $6.5T downstream production; supply concentration remains acute.

DEMAND Lithium ▲ Bullish

Energy Storage Demand Provides Lithium Floor

Battery energy storage demand growth projected at ~60% in 2026, outpacing EV slowdown. This resilient segment, alongside maintenance shutdowns in China, supports price recovery despite broader supply restarts in Australia and Africa.

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

Overnight the USD Index slipped 0.03% to 99.14 and CNY/USD eased 0.05% to 6.7193, leaving most critical minerals prices little changed except copper which rose 1.41% to 6.6875 USD/lb and uranium which gained 1.17% to 90.6 USD/lb. China’s export controls on batteries with energy density ≥300 Wh/kg plus cathode precursors and artificial graphite anodes, effective from prior announcements, continued to lift ex-China prices for those materials without fresh quota numbers released. Mineral Resources posted FY26 revenue of A$6.5bn on 559kt SC6e lithium sales while CATL lifted its 2026 production target to 1,300 GWh after reporting 34.8% global power-battery share.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

LITHIUMCATL’s Jianxiawo lepidolite mine in Jiangxi remains shut since 2025 with 60kt LCE supply at risk if licensing delays extend.

EVCATL reported 34.8% global power battery share in H1 2026 on 70.9 GWh installed and raised full-year output guidance to 1,300 GWh.

LITHIUMMineral Resources sold 559kt SC6e in FY26, up 28% YoY, with lithium production guidance for FY27 set at 660-750kt SC6e attributable.

GRAPHITEChina’s expanded export controls now cover artificial graphite anodes with ex-China prices spiking up to 6,000 USD/t in recent sessions.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

CHINANo new MIIT rare earth export quotas were issued overnight, leaving prior curbs on NdFeB precursors in force.

EXPORTChina’s cumulative gallium, germanium and rare earth export restrictions continue to support ex-China neodymium oxide at 101.77 USD/kg.

MAGNETCATL’s 42.33% July China EV battery share underscores sustained domestic NdFeB magnet demand from battery makers.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

GALLIUMGallium held at 267.0 USD/kg with no fresh Chinese export data released overnight.

GERMANIUMGermanium rose 1.96% to 3348.52 USD/kg on ongoing implementation of China’s expanded export controls.

ANTIMONYAntimony remained at 25450.0 USD/t with policy commentary focused on prior curbs rather than new tonnage limits.

TUNGSTENTungsten APT fell 2.44% to 3000.0 USD/mtu amid thin overnight trading volume.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDUSD Index at 99.14 eased 0.03%, providing modest support for USD-denominated critical mineral prices.

CHINANo China PMI release appeared in the overnight window, leaving industrial demand signals unchanged.

TRADEChina’s battery and graphite export controls remain the dominant trade policy factor affecting ex-China supply chains.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Medium Impact 2–4 years

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Low Impact 3–5 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

High Impact Active

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery

Low Impact Ongoing

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery, rare_earth

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	5.150	▼ 2.65%	▲ 4.46%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	65.370	▼ 2.27%	▲ 1.16%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	1.145	▼ 4.58%	▼ 4.98%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	8.290	▲ 1.22%	▲ 4.28%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	—	—	—	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	16.400	▲ 2.89%	▼ 0.61%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.370	▼ 6.33%	▲ 2.78%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	12.080	▼ 3.90%	▲ 12.48%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.515	▼ 16.53%	▼ 0.98%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	23.270	▼ 3.64%	▲ 11.61%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.340	▼ 5.56%	▲ 9.68%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	7.000	▼ 2.10%	▼ 1.27%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.044	▼ 2.22%	▼ 4.35%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.047	▲ 4.44%	▲ 4.44%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.370	▼ 2.63%	▲ 0.00%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	2.580	▼ 5.15%	▼ 6.52%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.046	▼ 4.17%	▲ 0.00%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.390	▼ 1.27%	▼ 3.70%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.380	▲ 1.33%	▲ 31.03%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.685	▼ 4.20%	▼ 2.14%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.520	▼ 4.59%	▲ 7.22%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

ASN.AXAnson ResourcesLithium▲ 4.44%

LYC.AXLynas Rare EarthsRare Earths▲ 2.89%

EUR.AXEuropean LithiumLithium▲ 1.33%

IGO.AXIGO LtdLithium/Nickel▲ 1.22%

WC8.AXWildcat ResourcesLithium▲ 1.27%

▼ Top Losers

BOE.AXBoss EnergyUranium▼ 16.53%

ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths▼ 6.33%

29M.AX29MetalsCopper/Zinc▼ 5.56%

VUL.AXVulcan Energy ResourcesLithium▼ 5.15%

PMT.AXPMET ResourcesLithium▼ 4.59%

20/21 watchlist stocks · prior close

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	59.030	▼ 0.47%	▲ 4.16%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	15.740	▲ 0.25%	▲ 11.71%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	106.330	▼ 0.96%	▲ 10.73%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	104.780	▲ 0.08%	▲ 8.37%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	3.170	▼ 1.25%	▲ 7.09%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	80.430	▲ 2.75%	▲ 8.00%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	132.290	▲ 0.52%	▲ 14.06%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	78.420	▼ 0.73%	▲ 18.24%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	15.310	▲ 0.99%	▲ 11.92%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

SQMSQMLithium▲ 2.75%

VALEValeNickel/Iron▲ 0.99%

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▲ 0.52%

UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▲ 0.25%

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▲ 0.08%

▼ Top Losers

LACLithium AmericasLithium▼ 1.25%

CCJCamecoUranium▼ 0.96%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▼ 0.73%

MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▼ 0.47%

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▼ 0.08%

9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	39.180	▲ 2.86%	▲ 10.27%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	48.370	▲ 0.83%	▲ 11.30%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	16.520	▲ 1.29%	▲ 11.47%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	15.520	▲ 0.91%	▲ 8.84%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	5.070	▲ 0.60%	▲ 15.75%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 2.86%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 1.29%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 0.91%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 0.83%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 0.60%

▼ Top Losers

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 0.60%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 0.83%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 0.91%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 1.29%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 2.86%

5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	18.090	▲ 7.30%	▲ 2.55%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	9.430	▲ 2.39%	▲ 4.49%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	8.580	▲ 1.18%	▲ 0.23%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	1.065	▼ 0.47%	▼ 8.19%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 7.30%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 2.39%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 1.18%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 0.47%

▼ Top Losers

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 0.47%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 1.18%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 2.39%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 7.30%

4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

7 metals tracked

◆ Neutral

-0.08%

Best

Spodumene SC6

0.00%

Worst

Lithium Carb.

-0.16%

Lithium carbonate fell 0.16% to 22628.8 CNY/t while CATL raised 2026 output guidance to 1,300 GWh on 34.8% global share.

Rare Earths

5 metals tracked

⚑ Caution

+0.29%

Best

Dysprosium Ox.

+1.24%

Worst

Neodymium Oxide

-0.04%

Neodymium oxide slipped 0.04% to 101.77 USD/kg with no new Chinese export quota releases overnight.

Strategic Metals

5 metals tracked

⚑ Caution

-0.17%

Best

Germanium

+1.96%

Worst

Tungsten (APT)

-2.44%

Germanium rose 1.96% to 3348.52 USD/kg on continued implementation of China’s expanded export controls.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+1.70%

Best

Nat. Gas

+2.22%

Worst

Uranium (U3O8)

+1.17%

Uranium gained 1.17% to 90.6 USD/lb with Lotus Kayelekera pause still in focus but no fresh tonnage impact.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+26.65%

Best

Zinc

+120.00%

Worst

Lead

-1.00%

Copper rose 1.41% to 6.6875 USD/lb after Lundin cut Caserones 2026 guidance to 120-130kt on storm damage.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+1.39%

Best

Silver

+3.21%

Worst

Iron Ore

+0.19%

S&P 500 rose 0.72% to 7731.0 with no direct oil or coal price moves altering the energy transition narrative overnight.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
09:30	JP	Tokyo Core CPI y/y	Medium	1.9%	1.8%

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

POLICYFurther MIIT or MOFCOM quota announcements on lithium battery materials remain the key overnight watch item.

SUPPLYRestart timeline for CATL Jianxiawo mine after June safety permit continues to determine 60kt LCE risk.

MACRONext China PMI and industrial output data will set the tone for battery metals demand signals.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.