WYS Critical Minerals · Tue 8 Sep 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · TUESDAY 8 SEPTEMBER 2026 · WYS EDITION 083

Data as of Monday 7 September 2026 close · Generated 8 September 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-260714_2027 / T-260601_1017

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

SUPPLY Lithium ▲ Bullish

CATL Jianxiawo mine returns to care and maintenance

China's largest lithium mine has been idled again, reviving supply squeeze concerns amid already tight spodumene markets. This follows earlier restarts and adds to bullish price pressure from strong energy storage and EV demand.

POLICY Cobalt ▲ Bullish

DRC export quota sustains cobalt price rally

Ongoing DRC restrictions capping exports have shifted the market to deficit, driving prices up ~130% from lows. Combined with steady battery demand, this tightens physical supply despite Indonesian offsets.

SUPPLY Copper ▲ Bullish

Multiple smelter and mine disruptions tighten copper market

Recent outages including Indonesia's Gresik smelter and Chilean weather events, plus DRC concentrate bans, have narrowed stockpiles and extended price rallies. Supply deficits projected to persist through 2035.

POLICY Rare Earths ▲ Bullish

China rare earth export controls delayed to November 2026

Expanded restrictions on heavy rare earths and battery materials remain suspended but pose $6.5T downstream risk if enacted. Automakers previously cut output; price gaps between China and West persist at 3-5x for gallium/germanium.

SUPPLY Uranium ● Neutral

ZNPP off-site power restored after ceasefire repairs

IAEA-brokered repairs to the final power line at Zaporizhia NPP reduce blackout risk after weeks on diesel generators. Temporary resolution supports continued safe operations at Europe's largest nuclear plant.

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

Overnight the USD Index rose 0.02% to 99.18 and the S&P 500 declined 0.38%, leaving most critical minerals contracts with minimal price movement except for a 69.72% surge in Germanium to 3485.48 USD/kg and a 2.96% drop in Lithium Carbonate to 147500 CNY/t. Copper gained 1.30% to 6.6825 USD/lb while Lithium Hydroxide and Nickel held flat. The macro backdrop provided no fresh directional impulse for battery or rare earth markets.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

EVSNE Research data showed global EV battery installations at 725.2 GWh for January-July 2026, up 20.4% YoY with CATL at 39.9% share (289.6 GWh).

LITHIUMLithium Carbonate closed at 147500 CNY/t down 2.96% and Spodumene SC6 at 2225 USD/t down 0.89% with no new mine or refinery updates overnight.

COBALTCobalt remained at 56290 USD/t with the DRC 96600 t annual export quota for 2026-2027 still in force and no fresh allocation changes.

NICKELNickel held at 17200 USD/t as July EV battery installations hit 116 GWh (+22.1% YoY) without new Indonesian supply signals.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

CHINAChinese rare earth export licensing frictions remain ahead of November 2026 deadlines with no new MOFCOM actions overnight.

NDFEBNeodymium Oxide stayed at 101.6 USD/kg as CATL and BYD together accounted for 54.6% of global EV battery installations through July.

EXPORTNo incremental updates emerged on ongoing Chinese rare earth export controls or graphite export suspensions set to expire November 2026.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

GERMANIUMGermanium surged 69.72% to 3485.48 USD/kg while Gallium rose 0.27% to 233.46 USD/kg with no new export control announcements.

GALLIUMGallium posted a modest 0.27% gain to 233.46 USD/kg amid unchanged Chinese policy settings on strategic metals.

ANTIMONYAntimony held at 25450 USD/t with no fresh supply or export policy moves reported from China or elsewhere.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDUSD Index rose 0.02% to 99.18 providing a neutral backdrop for USD-denominated contracts including copper and nickel.

CHINANo China PMI release occurred overnight leaving domestic demand signals dependent on the SNE EV battery installation figures.

TRADEDRC copper-cobalt concentrate export ban effective late June 2026 remains in place with possible waivers but produced no overnight adjustments.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Medium Impact 2–4 years

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Low Impact 3–5 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

High Impact Active

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery

Low Impact Ongoing

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery, rare_earth

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	4.930	▼ 3.14%	▼ 4.27%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	63.060	▲ 0.99%	▼ 3.53%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	1.185	▼ 3.27%	▲ 3.49%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	8.230	▼ 0.84%	▼ 0.72%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	—	—	—	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	15.620	▲ 1.96%	▼ 4.76%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.350	▼ 4.11%	▼ 5.41%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	11.710	▲ 0.09%	▼ 3.06%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.535	▲ 2.68%	▲ 1.32%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	22.470	▼ 0.53%	▼ 3.44%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.370	▲ 0.00%	▲ 8.82%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	6.920	▲ 1.76%	▼ 1.14%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.034	▼ 5.56%	▼ 22.73%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.048	▼ 4.00%	▲ 2.13%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.395	▼ 3.66%	▲ 6.76%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	2.610	▼ 0.38%	▲ 1.16%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.044	▼ 2.22%	▼ 4.35%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.380	▲ 0.00%	▼ 2.56%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.355	▼ 1.39%	▼ 6.58%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.630	▼ 5.26%	▼ 8.03%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.460	▲ 0.00%	▼ 11.54%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

BOE.AXBoss EnergyUranium▲ 2.68%

LYC.AXLynas Rare EarthsRare Earths▲ 1.96%

ILU.AXIluka ResourcesRare Earths/Zircon▲ 1.76%

MIN.AXMineral ResourcesLithium/Iron▲ 0.99%

PDN.AXPaladin EnergyUranium▲ 0.09%

▼ Top Losers

AGY.AXArgosy MineralsLithium▼ 5.56%

GL1.AXGlobal Lithium ResourcesLithium▼ 5.26%

ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths▼ 4.11%

ASN.AXAnson ResourcesLithium▼ 4.00%

GLN.AXGalan LithiumLithium▼ 3.66%

20/21 watchlist stocks · prior close

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	54.530	▲ 1.39%	▼ 8.06%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	14.470	▲ 0.84%	▼ 7.83%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	100.740	▲ 0.12%	▼ 6.17%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	103.270	▲ 0.42%	▼ 1.37%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	3.000	▲ 1.01%	▼ 6.54%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	76.430	▼ 4.20%	▼ 2.36%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	128.090	▼ 1.79%	▼ 2.67%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	72.730	▲ 0.23%	▼ 7.94%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	15.270	▼ 0.26%	▲ 0.73%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▲ 1.39%

LACLithium AmericasLithium▲ 1.01%

UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▲ 0.84%

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▲ 0.42%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▲ 0.23%

▼ Top Losers

SQMSQMLithium▼ 4.20%

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▼ 1.79%

VALEValeNickel/Iron▼ 0.26%

CCJCamecoUranium▼ 0.12%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▼ 0.23%

9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	35.480	▼ 1.28%	▼ 6.85%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	44.580	▼ 1.02%	▼ 7.07%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	15.050	▼ 1.18%	▼ 7.73%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	14.890	▲ 1.09%	▼ 3.19%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	4.720	▲ 0.64%	▼ 6.35%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 1.09%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 0.64%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 1.02%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 1.18%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 1.28%

▼ Top Losers

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 1.28%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 1.18%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 1.02%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 0.64%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 1.09%

5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	16.370	▼ 0.49%	▼ 6.62%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	9.125	▼ 1.03%	▼ 2.51%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	8.825	▲ 0.74%	▲ 4.31%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	1.050	▼ 1.87%	▼ 3.67%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 0.74%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 0.49%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 1.03%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 1.87%

▼ Top Losers

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 1.87%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 1.03%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 0.49%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 0.74%

4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

7 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-1.93%

Best

Spodumene SC6

-0.89%

Worst

Lithium Carb.

-2.96%

EV battery installations rose 20.4% YoY to 725.2 GWh through July with CATL at 39.9% share while lithium prices declined 2.96%.

Rare Earths

5 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

5 metal price(s) available — no change data

No new Chinese export policy moves overnight with neodymium oxide flat at 101.6 USD/kg and licensing frictions unchanged ahead of November deadlines.

Strategic Metals

5 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+23.60%

Best

Germanium

+69.72%

Worst

Gallium

+0.27%

Germanium surged 69.72% to 3485.48 USD/kg with gallium and indium posting smaller gains amid static export control settings.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

◆ Neutral

+0.07%

Best

Uranium (U3O8)

+0.13%

Worst

Nat. Gas

0.00%

Uranium held at 89.5 USD/lb with vanadium and tungsten unchanged and no fresh contracting or supply data released.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.41%

Best

Copper

+1.30%

Worst

Lead

-0.37%

Copper rose 1.30% to 6.6825 USD/lb while nickel stayed flat at 17200 USD/t with DRC export restrictions still in force.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.45%

Best

Gold

+1.06%

Worst

Crude Oil (WTI)

0.00%

No oil gas or coal price moves reported overnight leaving the energy transition demand narrative driven solely by the 20.4% YoY EV battery growth figure.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
23:15	GB	Monetary Policy Report Hearings	Medium	—	—

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

POLICYChinese rare earth and graphite export licensing suspensions remain scheduled to expire November 2026.

SUPPLYOngoing DRC copper-cobalt concentrate export restrictions effective since late June 2026 with possible waivers still under review.

DEMANDJuly EV battery installations at 116 GWh (+22.1% YoY) provide the latest demand benchmark ahead of further monthly releases.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.