WYS Critical Minerals · Thu 17 Sep 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · THURSDAY 17 SEPTEMBER 2026 · WYS EDITION 090

Data as of Wednesday 16 September 2026 close · Generated 17 September 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-260714_2027 / T-260601_1017

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

POLICY Lithium ▼ Bearish

China freezes new BESS/battery project approvals

MIIT and NDRC froze approvals for new power and BESS projects pending year-end review amid soft H1 2026 energy storage commissioning (down 16-18% YoY). This triggered sharp lithium carbonate price drop (up to 9.4% intraday) on top of inventory survey news. Demand data shows genuine weakness in ESS sector.

PRICE Lithium ▼ Bearish

Lithium carbonate prices drift lower on Sept 16

SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate spot prices continued declining; 2701 contract hit intraday low of 124,000 yuan/mt. Supply recovery underway (domestic output +11% MoM expected) but LFP demand must outpace it to avoid deficits. Chile Aug exports up 42.5% YoY.

DEMAND Uranium ▲ Bullish

Data centers and nuclear demand surge uranium prices

Spot U3O8 near multi-year highs (~$90/lb) driven by AI/data center power needs and nuclear restarts. Kazatomprom cut 2025 guidance ~20%; structural deficit emerging as mine development lags 10-20 years. Long-term contract prices at 18-year highs.

PRICE Cobalt ▼ Bearish

Cobalt prices shift lower on weak demand

Refined cobalt and sulphate prices under pressure from sluggish end-user demand and falling raw material costs. Smelters holding EXW at ~295,000 yuan/mt but trader activity limited; no clear bullish catalysts. DRC H1 exports recovering, easing feedstock tightness.

SUPPLY Nickel ▼ Bearish

Nickel oversupply signal as LME stocks build

LME nickel cash fell to 16,270 USD/t (weakest since July) with stocks rising 2,820 t to 274,320 t on single day. Contango persists amid Indonesian output and lack of quota increases; clear oversupply signal contradicting scarcity narratives.

SUPPLY Copper ● Neutral

DRC copper exports hit record H1 levels

DRC exported record 1.72 Mt copper in H1 2026 (up from 1.65 Mt), with US/Europe share doubling as diversification from China accelerates. CMOC, Glencore and ERG leading; supports alternative supply chains amid global demand growth.

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

USD Index climbed 0.67% to 100.31 and AUD/USD slipped 0.51% overnight, leaving most critical minerals prices unchanged except copper which rose 1.15% to 6.4415 USD/lb while S&P 500 fell 0.45%. Nickel Industries Ltd cut Excelsior Nickel Cobalt output in Sulawesi to 30% of nameplate capacity from water shortages, while Mopani and Chambishi smelters owned 85% by China Nonferrous Metal Mining Group extended outages including a 40-45 day Mopani shutdown that removes ~2 Mt of annual sulphuric acid supply. Nickel Industries Ltd and China Nonferrous Metal Mining Group-linked assets face the tightest operational exposure from these Indonesian and Zambian constraints.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

NICKELNickel Industries Ltd halted ramp-up at Excelsior Nickel Cobalt facility in Sulawesi, running at 30% nameplate capacity due to El Niño water shortages.

EVChina power battery installations hit 79.0 GWh in August, up 26.3% YoY, with CATL at 41.45% share and BYD at 20.98%.

LITHIUMLithium carbonate held at 132200.0 CNY/t and lithium hydroxide at 113000.0 CNY/t with no price movement.

NICKELCombined power and energy-storage battery production in China reached 237 GWh in August, up 69.8% YoY.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

EXPORTChina postponed implementation of certain rare earth export restrictions by one year to November 2026.

CHINAEarlier April 2025 controls on heavy rare earths dysprosium and terbium remain in effect.

SUPPLYNeodymium oxide closed at 101.01 USD/kg with no price change reported.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

GALLIUMGallium fell 0.07% to 230.84 USD/kg.

GERMANIUMGermanium dropped 1.09% to 3492.26 USD/kg.

ANTIMONYAntimony held steady at 11614.0 USD/t.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDUSD Index rose 0.67% to 100.31, pressuring non-USD denominated mineral contracts.

CHINAChina EV battery installations reached record 79.0 GWh in August.

TRADENo new DRC or Indonesian export actions reported in the overnight window.

RATESS&P 500 declined 0.45% with no China PMI data released.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Medium Impact 2–4 years

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Low Impact 3–5 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

High Impact Active

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery

Low Impact Ongoing

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery, rare_earth

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	4.250	▼ 0.23%	▼ 13.79%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	54.320	▲ 0.00%	▼ 13.86%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	1.020	▼ 1.92%	▼ 13.92%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	7.030	▼ 1.68%	▼ 14.58%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	—	—	—	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	13.840	▲ 0.07%	▼ 11.40%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.335	▼ 2.90%	▼ 4.29%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	9.500	▼ 0.21%	▼ 18.87%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.525	▲ 2.35%	▼ 0.65%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	21.260	▲ 2.90%	▼ 5.38%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.345	▲ 2.99%	▼ 6.76%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	6.040	▲ 0.67%	▼ 12.72%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.032	▲ 3.23%	▼ 5.88%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.044	▼ 2.22%	▼ 8.33%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.365	▲ 2.82%	▼ 7.59%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	2.240	▲ 0.00%	▼ 14.18%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.042	▲ 5.00%	▼ 4.55%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.340	▲ 1.49%	▼ 10.53%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.340	▲ 0.00%	▼ 4.23%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.630	▲ 0.00%	▲ 0.00%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.420	▼ 2.33%	▼ 8.70%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

LKE.AXLake ResourcesLithium▲ 5.00%

AGY.AXArgosy MineralsLithium▲ 3.23%

29M.AX29MetalsCopper/Zinc▲ 2.99%

SFR.AXSandfire ResourcesCopper▲ 2.90%

GLN.AXGalan LithiumLithium▲ 2.82%

▼ Top Losers

ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths▼ 2.90%

PMT.AXPMET ResourcesLithium▼ 2.33%

ASN.AXAnson ResourcesLithium▼ 2.22%

LTR.AXLiontown ResourcesLithium▼ 1.92%

IGO.AXIGO LtdLithium/Nickel▼ 1.68%

20/21 watchlist stocks · prior close

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	48.990	▼ 0.37%	▼ 10.16%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	11.730	▼ 1.10%	▼ 18.94%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	90.900	▼ 0.34%	▼ 9.77%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	95.790	▼ 1.51%	▼ 7.24%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	2.780	▼ 1.07%	▼ 7.33%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	68.680	▼ 0.88%	▼ 10.14%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	121.760	▼ 1.96%	▼ 4.94%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	69.240	▼ 0.20%	▼ 4.80%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	14.130	▼ 2.35%	▼ 7.47%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▲ 0.20%

CCJCamecoUranium▲ 0.34%

MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▲ 0.37%

SQMSQMLithium▲ 0.88%

LACLithium AmericasLithium▲ 1.07%

▼ Top Losers

VALEValeNickel/Iron▼ 2.35%

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▼ 1.96%

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▼ 1.51%

UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▼ 1.10%

LACLithium AmericasLithium▼ 1.07%

9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	31.860	▼ 0.90%	▼ 10.20%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	42.270	▲ 0.71%	▼ 5.18%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	13.500	▼ 2.17%	▼ 10.30%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	13.130	▼ 0.15%	▼ 11.82%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	3.930	▼ 1.26%	▼ 16.74%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 0.71%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 0.15%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 0.90%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 1.26%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 2.17%

▼ Top Losers

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 2.17%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 1.26%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 0.90%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 0.15%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 0.71%

5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	15.670	▲ 3.16%	▼ 4.28%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	8.640	▲ 2.43%	▼ 5.32%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	8.125	▲ 1.63%	▼ 7.93%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	1.030	▼ 0.96%	▼ 1.90%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 3.16%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 2.43%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 1.63%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 0.96%

▼ Top Losers

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 0.96%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 1.63%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 2.43%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 3.16%

4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

7 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

7 metal price(s) available — no change data

Nickel supply tightened at Excelsior while China August battery installations rose 26.3% YoY to 79.0 GWh.

Rare Earths

5 metals tracked

◆ Neutral

+0.07%

Best

Cerium Oxide

+0.56%

Worst

Dysprosium Ox.

-0.60%

China postponed select rare earth export restrictions to November 2026 with prior heavy rare earth controls unchanged.

Strategic Metals

5 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-0.46%

Best

Gallium

-0.07%

Worst

Germanium

-1.09%

Gallium fell 0.07% to 230.84 USD/kg and germanium dropped 1.09% to 3492.26 USD/kg.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-0.51%

Best

Uranium (U3O8)

-0.06%

Worst

Nat. Gas

-0.96%

Uranium eased 0.06% to 89.95 USD/lb with vanadium and tungsten unchanged.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

⚑ Caution

-0.22%

Best

Copper

+1.15%

Worst

Aluminium

-1.54%

Copper rose 1.15% to 6.4415 USD/lb as Zambian smelter outages extended.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-1.43%

Best

Silver

+0.31%

Worst

Crude Oil (WTI)

-3.59%

No material overnight moves in oil or coal prices affecting transition narrative.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
04:00	US	Federal Funds Rate	High	3.75%	4.00%
04:00	US	FOMC Economic Projections	High	—	—
04:00	US	FOMC Statement	High	—	—
04:30	US	FOMC Press Conference	High	—	—
21:00	GB	Monetary Policy Summary	High	—	—
21:00	GB	MPC Official Bank Rate Votes	High	3-0-6	3-0-6
21:00	GB	Official Bank Rate	High	3.75%	3.75%
22:30	US	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index	Medium	47.4	31.3
22:30	US	Unemployment Claims	Medium	206K	207K

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

SUPPLYMonitor Excelsior Nickel Cobalt ramp-up resumption once El Niño water constraints ease.

SUPPLYTrack DRC copper processing impacts from reduced Zambian acid availability.

POLICYWatch for any new Indonesian or DRC export measures in coming weeks.

GEOEl Niño drought conditions remain active risk for Indonesian nickel operations.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.