USD Index rose 0.18% to 101.38 while AUD/USD fell 0.38% to 0.6989 and CNY/USD slipped 0.11% to 6.703, producing mixed pressure on critical minerals with lithium carbonate at 123400 CNY/t down 2.33% and spodumene SC6 at 1735 USD/t down 3.07% while copper advanced 1.45% to 6.661 USD/lb. Overnight macro moves offered no offsetting demand signal as China PMI remained unreleased and S&P 500 closed 0.17% lower. Supply shocks dominated pricing direction. Sigma Lithium’s Grota do Cirilo mine in Brazil saw operating licenses suspended again on September 24 by FEAM covering mining, waste storage and the 270 ktpa expansion, the second halt in two months after the August 21 Conduct Adjustment Agreement was overturned by federal court injunction; PT Freeport Indonesia declared force majeure at Grasberg Block Cave after the September 8 landslide with no significant copper or gold output expected in Q4 2025 or 2026 and 2026 company-wide copper production now 35% below prior guidance. BHP’s Escondida mine in Chile continues gradual resumption after the September 23 fatal accident removing 3455 t/day of copper output while Congo copper-cobalt operators cancelled at least one 2000 t SMBS order and another 1800 t amid shipping disruptions. BHP faces direct exposure through Escondida’s H1 2026 production shortfall of 6.6% already recorded in Chile while Sigma Lithium’s repeated Brazilian halts directly constrain the 270 ktpa spodumene stream and Freeport’s force majeure removes the Grasberg Block Cave’s 70% share of PTFI copper output through 2029.