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While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition  ·  AI Buildout  ·  The Materials That Power Both
PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗  ·  WEDNESDAY 14 OCTOBER 2026  ·  WYS EDITION 107
Data as of  Tuesday 13 October 2026 close  ·  Generated  14 October 2026  7:00 AM AEST  ·  S-261001_2039 / T-260927_1849
Commodity Prices
Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals
↳ Background Context
Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite
Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets
Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium
Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum
Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron
Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.
Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy
Supply & Demand Signals
Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals
Lithium carbonate prices tumble sharply on Oct 12
PRICE
Lithium
Spot battery-grade lithium carbonate averaged 115,400 yuan/mt on Oct 12, down ~5.7% or 6,950 yuan in a single day amid oversupply expectations and demand concerns from EU hybrid import caps. Futures hit near 10-month lows as markets price in 2027 supply growth from Australia, Africa, and China projects.
▼ Bearish
Indonesia weighs moratorium on new nickel smelters
POLICY
Nickel
Jakarta is considering a freeze on new smelters producing semi-finished nickel products (pig iron, matte) to address global oversupply and protect domestic industry. The move could disrupt Chinese-backed supply chains feeding EV batteries and stainless steel.
▲ Bullish
Chile mine disruptions lift copper prices
SUPPLY
Copper
Persistent supply concerns from Chilean operations, including Codelco's El Teniente (avalanche halt) and Antofagasta's Centinela strike talks, pushed LME copper to two-week highs near $14,657/t. Physical shortages dominate amid broader mine outage risks.
▲ Bullish
Gotion to commission Morocco's first battery gigafactory
DEMAND
Lithium
Gotion Power Morocco will start equipment commissioning at its Kenitra LFP gigafactory the week of Oct 20, targeting 20 GWh cells plus cathode materials in phase one. The $1.3B project supports EV and storage demand across Africa, Europe, and beyond.
▲ Bullish
EU adds 46 strategic critical minerals projects
POLICY
Lithium
The European Commission selected 46 projects (Oct 9) spanning lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper, graphite, and rare earths for faster permitting and funding to cut China dependence. Battery metals dominate; targets include extraction, processing, and recycling across 16 member states.
● Neutral
Analysis
Overnight Briefing
Global Overview · What Moved & Why

USD Index slipped 0.37% to 102.2 while LME copper inventories fell 1,625 tonnes to 232,275 tonnes, lifting copper 0.46% to 6.7295 USD/lb as physical supply tightens. Chinese lithium carbonate averaged 115,400 yuan/mt after a 5.7% drop, with lithium carbonate at 111,650 CNY/t down 3.25% and spodumene SC6 at 1,565 USD/t down 3.10%. Antimony fell 4.45% to 21,450 USD/t and neodymium oxide 1.50% to 100.89 USD/kg. Codelco suspended operations in the south pit sector of El Teniente after the October 11 landslide killed two Aura Ingeniería contractors, with SERNAGEOMIN ordering the halt at one of the world's largest copper mines; this adds to the 350,000–400,000 tonnes of annual supply already at risk from Grasberg and other South American disruptions. Antofagasta's Centinela strike remains active with unions flagging potential November output cuts. Codelco's El Teniente partial stoppage and the ongoing Centinela strike directly pressure Freeport-McMoRan Grasberg-linked volumes and Antofagasta production schedules, while EnergyX's $2 billion Trafigura lithium offtake from Chile and US assets highlights offtake security amid the lithium carbonate price slide.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite
LITHIUMChinese lithium carbonate spot averaged 115,400 yuan/mt on October 12, down 5.7% or 6,950 yuan day-over-day.
LITHIUMEnergyX signed a $2 billion binding lithium offtake with Trafigura covering Chile and US supply.
EVCATL and Seres signed a long-term strategic cooperation agreement with no new gigafactory announcements from CATL, BYD or LG.
NICKELNickel closed at 15,630 USD/t, down 0.45% with no new force majeure or strike reports at nickel mines.
Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind
NDFEБNeodymium oxide fell 1.50% to 100.89 USD/kg with no new Chinese export quota or licensing changes announced.
CHINAEU-China consultations continue on facilitating existing rare earth export licenses rather than imposing new restrictions.
SUPPLYNo fresh force majeure or geotechnical failures reported at rare earth mines overnight.
Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk
ANTIMONYAntimony dropped 4.45% to 21,450 USD/t with no new Chinese export controls announced in the last 12 hours.
GALLIUMGallium fell 2.38% to 229 USD/kg while germanium held at 3,594 USD/kg.
POLICYEU added 46 new strategic critical raw materials projects heavy on copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium to its faster-permitting list.
Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation
USDUSD Index fell 0.37% to 102.2 while AUD/USD rose 0.39% to 0.6983.
CHINANo new Chinese PMI or industrial output data released overnight.
TRADEOngoing EU-China talks focus on managed rare earth export license access rather than new quotas.
Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers
Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk
Medium Impact
CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.
Affects: battery
Horizon: 2–4 years
Solid-State Battery Commercialisation
Low Impact
Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.
Affects: battery
Horizon: 3–5 years
China Critical Mineral Export Controls
High Impact
China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.
Affects: strategic · rare earth · battery
Horizon: Active
US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives
Low Impact
Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.
Affects: battery · rare earth
Horizon: Ongoing
Market Watch
ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers
Ticker Company Exposure Price Change 7d Mkt Cap
PLS.AXPilbara MineralsLithium3.080▲ 0.00%▼ 17.20%—
MIN.AXMineral ResourcesLithium/Iron45.810▲ 0.00%▼ 8.80%—
LTR.AXLiontown ResourcesLithium0.715▲ 0.00%▼ 11.18%—
IGO.AXIGO LtdLithium/Nickel5.510▲ 0.00%▼ 14.17%—
WR1.AXWinsome ResourcesLithium————
LYC.AXLynas Rare EarthsRare Earths11.670▲ 0.00%▼ 7.60%—
ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths0.345▲ 0.00%▲ 1.47%—
PDN.AXPaladin EnergyUranium8.030▲ 0.00%▼ 10.88%—
BOE.AXBoss EnergyUranium1.250▲ 0.00%▼ 16.39%—
SFR.AXSandfire ResourcesCopper21.690▲ 0.00%▼ 2.52%—
29M.AX29MetalsCopper/Zinc0.325▲ 0.00%▼ 10.96%—
ILU.AXIluka ResourcesRare Earths/Zircon5.320▲ 0.00%▼ 7.16%—
AGY.AXArgosy MineralsLithium0.022▲ 0.00%▼ 26.67%—
ASN.AXAnson ResourcesLithium0.038▲ 0.00%▼ 11.63%—
GLN.AXGalan LithiumLithium0.225▲ 0.00%▼ 22.41%—
VUL.AXVulcan Energy ResourcesLithium1.200▲ 0.00%▼ 29.20%—
LKE.AXLake ResourcesLithium0.032▲ 0.00%▼ 21.95%—
WC8.AXWildcat ResourcesLithium0.235▲ 0.00%▼ 14.55%—
EUR.AXEuropean LithiumLithium0.360▲ 0.00%▼ 10.00%—
GL1.AXGlobal Lithium ResourcesLithium0.995▲ 0.00%▲ 0.00%—
PMT.AXPMET ResourcesLithium0.375▲ 0.00%▼ 13.79%—
ASX Materials · Broader Movers
▲ Top Gainers
PLS.AX
Pilbara Minerals
battery
● 0.00%
MIN.AX
Mineral Resources
battery
● 0.00%
LTR.AX
Liontown Resources
battery
● 0.00%
IGO.AX
IGO Ltd
battery
● 0.00%
LYC.AX
Lynas Rare Earths
rare_earth
● 0.00%
▼ Top Losers
PMT.AX
PMET Resources
battery
● 0.00%
GL1.AX
Global Lithium Resources
battery
● 0.00%
EUR.AX
European Lithium
battery
● 0.00%
WC8.AX
Wildcat Resources
battery
● 0.00%
LKE.AX
Lake Resources
battery
● 0.00%
20/21 stocks fetched
US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain
Ticker Company Exposure Price Change 7d Mkt Cap
MPMP MaterialsRare Earths42.430▼ 2.14%▼ 9.67%—
UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE9.270▼ 4.04%▼ 13.61%—
CCJCamecoUranium86.150▲ 0.03%▲ 1.14%—
RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron93.060▼ 1.31%▼ 1.22%—
LACLithium AmericasLithium2.200▼ 2.22%▼ 13.73%—
SQMSQMLithium62.830▲ 0.58%▼ 2.62%—
NEMNewmontGold/Copper115.590▼ 1.33%▲ 0.03%—
FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper72.420▼ 1.19%▲ 0.53%—
VALEValeNickel/Iron13.370▼ 1.11%▼ 2.83%—
NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers
▲ Top Gainers
SQM
SQM
battery
▲ 0.58%
CCJ
Cameco
energy
▲ 0.03%
VALE
Vale
battery
▼ 1.11%
FCX
Freeport-McMoRan
base
▼ 1.19%
RIO
Rio Tinto
battery
▼ 1.31%
▼ Top Losers
UUUU
Energy Fuels
energy
▼ 4.04%
LAC
Lithium Americas
battery
▼ 2.22%
MP
MP Materials
rare_earth
▼ 2.14%
NEM
Newmont
base
▼ 1.33%
RIO
Rio Tinto
battery
▼ 1.31%
9/9 stocks fetched
TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals
Ticker Company Exposure Price Change 7d Mkt Cap
LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc34.670▼ 1.42%▲ 4.15%—
FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper39.000▼ 0.23%▲ 1.46%—
CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper13.380▼ 2.05%▼ 2.90%—
NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium12.070▼ 3.52%▼ 4.43%—
DML.TODenison MinesUranium3.320▼ 4.05%▼ 8.29%—
TSX · Broader Movers
▲ Top Gainers
FM.TO
First Quantum
base
▼ 0.23%
LUN.TO
Lundin Mining
base
▼ 1.42%
CS.TO
Capstone Copper
base
▼ 2.05%
NXE.TO
NexGen Energy
energy
▼ 3.52%
DML.TO
Denison Mines
energy
▼ 4.05%
▼ Top Losers
DML.TO
Denison Mines
energy
▼ 4.05%
NXE.TO
NexGen Energy
energy
▼ 3.52%
CS.TO
Capstone Copper
base
▼ 2.05%
LUN.TO
Lundin Mining
base
▼ 1.42%
FM.TO
First Quantum
base
▼ 0.23%
5/5 stocks fetched
HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners
Ticker Company Exposure Price Change 7d Mkt Cap
3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt15.580▲ 2.03%▲ 4.35%—
1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc8.670▲ 1.82%▲ 2.00%—
2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE7.770▲ 0.58%▲ 1.97%—
1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold1.010▼ 2.88%▲ 3.06%—
HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers
▲ Top Gainers
3993.HK
CMOC Group
battery
▲ 2.03%
1208.HK
MMG Ltd
base
▲ 1.82%
2600.HK
Aluminum Corp China
base
▲ 0.58%
1899.HK
Zhaojin Mining
base
▼ 2.88%
▼ Top Losers
1899.HK
Zhaojin Mining
base
▼ 2.88%
2600.HK
Aluminum Corp China
base
▲ 0.58%
1208.HK
MMG Ltd
base
▲ 1.82%
3993.HK
CMOC Group
battery
▲ 2.03%
4/4 stocks fetched
Calendar & Risks
Metal Category Scorecard
Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers
Battery Metals
7 metals tracked
▼ Bearish
-1.36%
Best
Cobalt
0.00%
Worst
Lithium Carb.
-3.25%
Lithium carbonate fell sharply to 115,400 yuan/mt on divergent near-term tightness versus longer-term supply expectations while CATL-Seres offtake agreement provided limited demand support.
Rare Earths
5 metals tracked
▼ Bearish
-0.40%
Best
Praseodymium Ox.
+0.32%
Worst
Neodymium Oxide
-1.50%
Neodymium oxide declined 1.50% to 100.89 USD/kg with no new Chinese export quota changes and EU consultations focused on existing license facilitation.
Strategic Metals
5 metals tracked
▼ Bearish
-3.42%
Best
Gallium
-2.38%
Worst
Antimony
-4.45%
Antimony dropped 4.45% to 21,450 USD/t and gallium 2.38% to 229 USD/kg with no fresh Chinese export controls or policy announcements overnight.
Energy Metals
2 metals tracked
▲ Bullish
+2.40%
Best
Nat. Gas
+4.80%
Worst
Uranium (U3O8)
0.00%
Uranium held at 90 USD/lb and vanadium at 11.82 USD/kg with no new contracting or mine disruption reports.
Base Metals
6 metals tracked
▲ Bullish
+0.46%
Best
Copper
+0.46%
Worst
Copper
+0.46%
Copper rose 0.46% to 6.7295 USD/lb as LME stocks fell 1,625 tonnes to 232,275 tonnes on Codelco El Teniente and Centinela supply risks.
Competing Energy
5 metals tracked
◆ Neutral
-0.08%
Best
Crude Oil (WTI)
+1.18%
Worst
Silver
-1.30%
No oil, gas or coal price moves reported overnight that alter the energy transition narrative for critical minerals demand.
Economic & Industry Calendar
China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA
Time (AEST) Ctry Event Impact Prior Forecast
12:10EUECB President Lagarde SpeaksMedium——
15:30GBBOE Gov Bailey SpeaksMedium——
18:30EUECB President Lagarde SpeaksMedium——
20:15EUEU Economic SummitMedium——
22:30USCore CPI m/mHigh0.3%0.2%
22:30USCore CPI y/yHigh2.4%2.5%
22:30USCPI m/mHigh0.4%0.6%
22:30USCPI y/yHigh3.4%3.6%
Risks & Watch Items
Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch
SUPPLYSERNAGEOMIN investigation and police probe into El Teniente landslide may extend the partial suspension duration.
SUPPLYCentinela union negotiations resume October 13 with potential for escalated November cuts if unresolved.
POLICYNo new MIIT or Ministry of Commerce export controls on lithium or rare earths announced in last 12-18 hours.
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