WYS Critical Minerals · Thu 29 Oct 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · THURSDAY 29 OCTOBER 2026 · WYS EDITION 118

Data as of Wednesday 28 October 2026 close · Generated 29 October 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-261001_2039 / T-260927_1849

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

Rio Tinto starts two new DLE lithium plants in Argentina

SUPPLY

Lithium

Rio Tinto inaugurated the Sal de Vida and Fenix 1B expansion projects on Oct 28, adding 25kt LCE annual capacity using direct lithium extraction technology. The company targets 200ktpa total Argentine output by 2028 amid global supply growth. This adds near-term supply in a market already facing cautious Chinese demand sentiment.

▼ Bearish

Cobalt prices fall on weak Chinese demand at LME Week

DEMAND

Cobalt

Fastmarkets noted bearish sentiment for cobalt due to downstream demand concerns in China, with hydroxide prices dropping to $13-14/lb cif China on Oct 27. DRC export quotas remain in place until end-2027 while Indonesia HPAL cut talks add uncertainty. Larger alternative supply and weak battery demand weigh on the market.

▼ Bearish

Germanium prices hit new highs amid tight supply

PRICE

Germanium

SMM reported germanium ingot prices rising to 28,500 yuan/kg and dioxide to 19,900 yuan/kg on Oct 21, extending the rally with no pullback. Supply remains constrained by limited mining output, low smelter inventories, and ongoing Chinese export controls requiring case-by-case approvals. Korea Zinc's KEMCO expansion targets Q4 crude production start.

▲ Bullish

Strike halts output at Canada's largest open-pit copper mine

SUPPLY

Copper

Over 1,200 workers struck Teck's Highland Valley Copper mine in British Columbia starting Oct 24 after failed contract talks. The action risks near-term supply disruption at one of Canada's major copper operations. Unions warn November output could be halved.

▲ Bullish

Metlen advances 50t gallium production to counter China dominance

SUPPLY

Gallium

Metlen Energy & Metals confirmed plans for 50 tonnes annual gallium output from alumina expansion, with commercial start in Q3 2027. Prices have surged from under $500/kg to $3,500/kg, driven by Chinese supply concentration and export controls. The company has secured offtake deals covering nearly all output and is eyeing germanium/scandium next.

▲ Bullish

Battery metals cautious on China demand at LME Week 2026

DEMAND

Lithium

LME Week discussions highlighted bearish lithium sentiment tied to weaker Chinese downstream demand despite potential supply curbs. Spot lithium carbonate prices cif China/Japan/Korea fell to $12.80-15/kg on Oct 27, well below May highs. Additional African spodumene supply expectations and Zimbabwe port delays add to buyer caution.

▼ Bearish

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

ASX-listed names with Chilean or Canadian copper exposure such as BHP and Rio Tinto face the most immediate output-at-risk from the Codelco and Teck labour actions, while Lynas Rare Earths and Iluka remain sensitive to the 10 November expiry of China’s rare-earth export pause and any extension of the 0.1% Chinese-content licensing rule.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

LITHIUMLithium carbonate rose 0.70% to 100050 CNY/t and spodumene SC6 gained 0.75% to 1350 USD/t on thin overnight trade.

NICKELNon-integrated IMIP operators are coordinating cuts to halve MHP output and reduce NPI by ~20% amid margin pressure.

COBALTCobalt held flat at 34620 USD/t with no fresh supply or EV demand data reported overnight.

EVNo new gigafactory offtake announcements or battery inventory releases surfaced in the last 12 hours.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

EXPORTChina’s one-year pause on the October 2025 rare-earth export package expires 10 November with no extension confirmed.

CHINAMOFCOM added 40 AI/biomed/photovoltaic technologies to the prohibited/restricted export catalogue between 16-19 October.

NDFEБNeodymium oxide edged 0.06% higher to 99.65 USD/kg ahead of the November policy deadline.

SUPPLYThe April 2025 licensing regime on seven heavy rare earths remains in force and was never suspended.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

GERMANIUMGermanium rose 2.12% to 3840.21 USD/kg on limited spot availability.

GALLIUMGallium gained 0.13% to 228.43 USD/kg with no new Chinese export licence data released.

ANTIMONYAntimony held unchanged at 21250 USD/t despite ongoing policy scrutiny.

POLICYLME downstream system disruptions on 27 October deferred physically settled settlements from 28 to 29 October.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDUSD Index fell 0.18% to 102.13, supporting modest gains in copper and germanium.

CHINAChina PMI print was absent overnight, leaving smelter curtailment signals as the dominant driver.

TRADECNY/USD at 6.6655 showed minimal movement and did not alter rare-earth export timing expectations.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

Medium Impact

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Horizon: 2–4 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Low Impact

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

Horizon: 3–5 years

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

High Impact

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic · rare earth · battery

Horizon: Active

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Low Impact

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery · rare earth

Horizon: Ongoing

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	2.990	▲ 0.00%	▲ 2.05%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	45.300	▲ 0.00%	▼ 0.35%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	0.705	▲ 0.00%	▲ 1.44%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	5.200	▲ 0.00%	▼ 2.26%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	—	—	—	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	12.510	▲ 0.00%	▲ 10.22%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.325	▲ 0.00%	▼ 7.14%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	7.870	▲ 0.00%	▲ 9.00%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.490	▲ 0.00%	▲ 15.95%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	20.570	▲ 0.00%	▲ 1.23%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.275	▲ 0.00%	▼ 11.29%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	5.690	▲ 0.00%	▲ 9.63%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.030	▲ 0.00%	▲ 15.38%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.037	▲ 0.00%	▲ 0.00%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.230	▲ 0.00%	▲ 2.22%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	1.280	▲ 0.00%	▲ 12.78%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.031	▲ 0.00%	▼ 3.13%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.225	▲ 0.00%	▲ 0.00%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.390	▲ 0.00%	▲ 1.30%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.900	▲ 0.00%	▼ 6.25%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.345	▲ 0.00%	▲ 6.15%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

PLS.AX

Pilbara Minerals

battery

● 0.00%

MIN.AX

Mineral Resources

battery

● 0.00%

LTR.AX

Liontown Resources

battery

● 0.00%

IGO.AX

IGO Ltd

battery

● 0.00%

LYC.AX

Lynas Rare Earths

rare_earth

● 0.00%

▼ Top Losers

PMT.AX

PMET Resources

battery

● 0.00%

GL1.AX

Global Lithium Resources

battery

● 0.00%

EUR.AX

European Lithium

battery

● 0.00%

WC8.AX

Wildcat Resources

battery

● 0.00%

LKE.AX

Lake Resources

battery

● 0.00%

20/21 stocks fetched

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	41.060	▲ 0.46%	▲ 5.42%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	8.390	▲ 1.94%	▲ 2.82%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	83.840	▲ 1.74%	▲ 3.89%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	85.930	▲ 0.22%	▼ 3.99%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	2.170	▲ 0.46%	▲ 1.40%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	58.940	▼ 2.26%	▼ 1.98%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	113.920	▲ 1.14%	▼ 3.47%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	66.600	▲ 0.99%	▼ 4.52%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	11.470	▼ 3.12%	▼ 12.51%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

UUUU

Energy Fuels

energy

▲ 1.94%

CCJ

Cameco

energy

▲ 1.74%

NEM

Newmont

base

▲ 1.14%

FCX

Freeport-McMoRan

base

▲ 0.99%

MP Materials

rare_earth

▲ 0.46%

▼ Top Losers

VALE

Vale

battery

▼ 3.12%

SQM

battery

▼ 2.26%

RIO

Rio Tinto

battery

▲ 0.22%

LAC

Lithium Americas

battery

▲ 0.46%

MP Materials

rare_earth

▲ 0.46%

9/9 stocks fetched

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	32.120	▲ 0.41%	▼ 3.51%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	35.890	▼ 0.47%	▼ 2.21%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	12.020	▼ 1.23%	▼ 2.20%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	12.510	▲ 1.38%	▲ 4.34%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	3.360	▲ 0.00%	▲ 4.67%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

NXE.TO

NexGen Energy

energy

▲ 1.38%

LUN.TO

Lundin Mining

base

▲ 0.41%

DML.TO

Denison Mines

energy

● 0.00%

FM.TO

First Quantum

base

▼ 0.47%

CS.TO

Capstone Copper

base

▼ 1.23%

▼ Top Losers

CS.TO

Capstone Copper

base

▼ 1.23%

FM.TO

First Quantum

base

▼ 0.47%

DML.TO

Denison Mines

energy

● 0.00%

LUN.TO

Lundin Mining

base

▲ 0.41%

NXE.TO

NexGen Energy

energy

▲ 1.38%

5/5 stocks fetched

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	12.840	▲ 1.02%	▼ 12.11%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	7.300	▲ 2.82%	▼ 4.39%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	7.115	▲ 0.35%	▼ 2.13%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	0.970	▲ 1.04%	▼ 1.52%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

1208.HK

MMG Ltd

base

▲ 2.82%

1899.HK

Zhaojin Mining

base

▲ 1.04%

3993.HK

CMOC Group

battery

▲ 1.02%

2600.HK

Aluminum Corp China

base

▲ 0.35%

▼ Top Losers

2600.HK

Aluminum Corp China

base

▲ 0.35%

3993.HK

CMOC Group

battery

▲ 1.02%

1899.HK

Zhaojin Mining

base

▲ 1.04%

1208.HK

MMG Ltd

base

▲ 2.82%

4/4 stocks fetched

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

7 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.48%

Best

Spodumene SC6

+0.75%

Worst

Vanadium

0.00%

Lithium carbonate and spodumene posted small gains on thin volume while nickel faces coordinated Indonesian cuts.

Rare Earths

5 metals tracked

◆ Neutral

+0.03%

Best

Neodymium Oxide

+0.06%

Worst

Dysprosium Ox.

0.00%

Policy uncertainty ahead of the 10 November export pause expiry keeps neodymium oxide bid slightly higher.

Strategic Metals

5 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.65%

Best

Germanium

+2.12%

Worst

Antimony

0.00%

Germanium led strategic metals with a 2.12% gain amid ongoing LME downstream settlement delays.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+6.46%

Best

Nat. Gas

+12.53%

Worst

Uranium (U3O8)

+0.39%

Uranium rose 0.39% to 90.25 USD/lb with no fresh contracting data reported overnight.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.80%

Best

Copper

+0.80%

Worst

Copper

+0.80%

Copper leads the complex higher on Chilean and Canadian labour disruptions plus Chinese smelter cuts.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

⚑ Caution

-0.21%

Best

Crude Oil (WTI)

+2.12%

Worst

Brent Crude

-2.88%

No material oil or coal price moves altered the energy transition narrative overnight.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
04:00	US	Federal Funds Rate	High	4.00%	4.00%
04:00	US	FOMC Statement	High	—	—
04:30	US	FOMC Press Conference	High	—	—
22:30	US	Advance GDP q/q	High	1.5%	3.2%
22:30	US	Core PCE Price Index m/m	High	0.2%	0.3%
22:30	US	Advance GDP Price Index q/q	Medium	6.2%	3.2%
22:30	US	Unemployment Claims	Medium	194K	198K
23:15	EU	Main Refinancing Rate	High	2.65%	2.65%
23:15	EU	Monetary Policy Statement	High	—	—
23:45	EU	ECB Press Conference	High	—	—

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

SUPPLYDuration of Highland Valley strike will determine final 2026 molybdenum output impact.

POLICYAny extension or tightening of China’s 0.1% rare-earth content rule post-10 November remains unconfirmed.

GEOPotential spread of Codelco union action to Chuquicamata and Radomiro Tomic is flagged by union leaders.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.