MACROJune non-farm payrolls rose just +57,000 against a 115,000 consensus, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2%; April was revised down 31,000 and May down 43,000, removing 74,000 previously reported positions. Leisure and hospitality shed 61,000 jobs, partly attributed to weaker seasonal hiring and World Cup effects. Annual wage growth ticked up to 3.5% from 3.4%, keeping the inflation dimension of the Fed's dilemma alive.
FEDThe FOMC has held its benchmark rate at 3.50%–3.75% since cutting 75bp in late 2025. The June dot plot showed nine policymakers projecting at least one hike, with six seeing multiple hikes; new Chair Kevin Warsh declined to submit projections, citing long-held views on the practice. At the ECB's Sintra forum on 1 July, Warsh stated the Fed would 'chart a new course' but gave no specifics on timing or direction. The payrolls miss has now fully unwound the 30% probability of a July hike priced before the release.
TARIFFTwo hard tariff deadlines loom in July: reciprocal tariffs revert to higher levels on 9 July unless extended, and Section 122 balance-of-payments tariffs — the 10% levies — expire on 24 July. Neither has been resolved as of Thursday's close, keeping trade policy uncertainty elevated for European exporters with US exposure.
ENERGYUS-Iran ceasefire talks resumed in Qatar via mediators, with President Trump stating that 'the denuclearisation of Iran is moving along well.' The 60-day truce has kept the Strait of Hormuz open, contributing to WTI's approximately 31% Q2 decline to the $68–$69 range. The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook is due at 08:00 CET Friday, alongside API crude stock data at 12:30 CET.
TECHUS markets are closed Friday 3 July for Independence Day and reopen Monday 6 July. On Thursday, the Nasdaq fell 0.80% and the Russell 2000 lost 0.55% at the index level shown in closing data, with broader AI-sector valuation concerns continuing to weigh on chip and platform names. SpaceX shares recovered 0.80% to $158.80 in premarket Thursday after a 7.9% drop Wednesday following reports the FAA added SpaceX to an internal prohibited investment list.