FEDMinutes from the June 16-17 FOMC meeting — Kevin Warsh's first as chair — revealed a genuinely split committee: some members argued for a rate hike at that meeting itself, and by Thursday market-implied probability of a September hike had risen to approximately 70% from 58% the prior day. The Fed held at 3.50%-3.75%; PCE inflation for May was internally calculated at 4.1%, well above the 2% target, and the Iran conflict's potential to extend the commodity price impulse has reinforced the hawkish wing. Warsh gives semi-annual congressional testimony on Tuesday 14 July, the next major Fed signalling event.
TECHMicron Technology was the session standout, rising more than 7% intraday after announcing an expansion of its US investment plan through 2035 from $200 billion to over $250 billion, targeting roughly 40% of DRAM production domestically. The news lifted the VanEck Semiconductor ETF 2.5% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index over 4%. SK Hynix begins trading on Nasdaq today following a $26.5 billion offering that was more than seven times oversubscribed, directly relevant to European chipmakers given the sector's interconnected supply chain with ASML and BE Semiconductor.
EARNINGSPepsiCo opened Q2 2026 earnings season with a mixed result: revenue of $24.18 billion beat the $23.97 billion consensus and rose 6.4% year-on-year, while adjusted EPS of $2.20 missed the $2.21 estimate by one cent. Organic revenue growth of 2.4% was supported by pricing and volume gains in snacks and beverages, though North American consumer spending softness was flagged as a margin pressure. The stock gained approximately 1% on the day. The next heavy reporting week begins July 14 with JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup, alongside the June CPI print.
ENERGYUS equity energy names diverged sharply from the crude complex on Thursday: Valero and Marathon Petroleum hit record highs on Wednesday when oil surged on Iran tensions, while Thursday saw WTI slide approximately 3.7% to $71.70 even as Brent held near $78.94 — a widening WTI-Brent spread that reflects US domestic supply dynamics versus seaborne disruption risk. An EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook is due at 08:00 CET today and API crude inventory data at 12:30 CET, with the prior API draw of 6.75 million barrels creating a high base for comparison against a forecast draw of 3.4 million.
MACROUS Treasury yields edged higher at the short end — the 2-year at 4.21% up 2bp — while a 30-year auction drew the highest yield in nearly two decades, keeping supply pressure visible on the long end. The 10-year settled around 4.56%, up 1bp. US trade data for the prior period showed a deficit of $56.6 billion; today's release is forecast to narrow marginally to $56.1 billion. Existing home sales data at 06:00 CET is forecast at 4.07 million annualised units against a prior 4.04 million.