The dominant overnight macro driver is the escalation of US-Iran tensions, including reports of a US blockade of Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz, which has pushed Brent crude up 1.27% to $89.22/bbl and WTI up 0.90% to $83.23/bbl — levels that reinforce inflation concerns and are feeding expectations of a further Fed rate hike from the current 3.50–3.75% target range, against a backdrop of US PCE inflation running at 4.1% in May. The DXY firmed 0.24% to 100.99 as risk sentiment stayed cautious, while the US yield curve bull-flattened — the 2-year yield rose 2bp to 4.18% as rate-hike expectations were repriced, while the 10-year eased 2bp to 4.55%, compressing the spread. European markets opened the week in fragmented fashion: the DAX managed a marginal +0.06% while the FTSE 100 underperformed at -0.71%, weighed by its insurance and oil-exposed heavyweights; the Euro Stoxx 50 slipped 0.06%. EUR/USD fell 0.15% to 1.1428 and GBP/USD dropped 0.24% to 1.3446, both reflecting USD strength tied to geopolitical risk and Fed repricing, with EUR/GBP ticking up 0.08% to 0.8499, signalling relative GBP softness. Cross-asset pressure is concentrated in European tech — notably ASML.AS -3.84% and NOKIA.HE -3.28% — and in consumer cyclicals exposed to AI-capex uncertainty, while integrated energy names ENI.MI +2.53% and TTE.PA +1.32% partially offset broader index weakness.