WYS Europe · Thu 13 Aug 2026 — Overnight Markets Brief

While You Slept — EuropeOvernight Global Markets · Europe Morning Brief

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · THURSDAY 13 AUGUST 2026 · WYS EDITION 058

Data as of close Wednesday 12 August 2026 close · Generated 13 August 2026 8:30 AM CET · S-b8414f9b / T-6b1c9dc5

🏠 ECB Watch

Deposit Facility Rate

2.25%

Rate cycle -- last 12 decisions

Next ECB Meeting

10 September 2026

Decision ~14:15 CET

29 days away

EUR / USD

1.1544

▼ 0.02%

Euro / US Dollar

ECB Policy Resources

ECB Monetary Policy ↗

Official ECB rate decisions

Market Data

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Markets

Key Stories for Europe

DAX · FTSE · ECB · Energy · Autos · Banks · Impact Analysis

TECHASML Holding (ASML.AS) was the standout performer among large-cap European technology names, rising +2.66% to rank as the second-largest gainer in the Euro Stoxx 50. The move was driven by positive read-across from US AI earnings momentum — CoreWeave and SMCI results — which reinforced demand expectations for advanced semiconductor equipment. Nokia (NOKIA.HE) also gained +2.26%, reflecting the broader tech and telecoms tailwind.

ENERGYENI S.p.A. (ENI.MI) rose +2.01% and was among the top five Euro Stoxx 50 gainers, supported by Brent crude holding near $89/bbl amid Strait of Hormuz concerns and Iran-related geopolitical developments. RWE (RWE.DE) advanced +1.81% and ERG S.p.A. (ERG.MI) led all Euro Stoxx 50 gainers with a +2.68% rise, with utilities supported by elevated European power prices — German baseload at €120.55/MWh.

AUTOSStellantis N.V. (STLAM.MI) was the worst performer in the Euro Stoxx 50, declining -2.60%. The move occurred against a backdrop of ongoing US-EU trade friction concerns and weak European consumer sentiment. Stellantis's decline extended recent underperformance in the European autos complex, which sits within the broader Consumer Cyclical sector.

HEALTHCAREThe European Healthcare sector was the worst-performing on Wednesday, falling -0.68%. Merck KGaA (MRK.DE) dropped -2.44% and Lonza Group (LONN.SW) fell -1.60%, both ranking among the five worst Euro Stoxx 50 performers. The SMI index was the weakest major European benchmark at -0.86%, partly reflecting the weight of Swiss healthcare and pharma names.

MACROProsus N.V. (PRX.AS) declined -2.50%, ranking as the third-largest Euro Stoxx 50 loser. Prosus carries significant exposure to emerging market tech assets including Tencent, and the move reflected weakness in Hong Kong equities (HKEX -0.83%) and broader caution around Chinese tech valuations, even as mainland Chinese equities (SSE +0.32%) were mildly positive.

FTSE|BOEThe FTSE 100 fell 0.10% to 10,833.2 with attention now turning to this morning's UK GDP release at 08:00 CET. Preliminary Q2 GDP is forecast at +0.4% q/q, down from +0.6% prior, while monthly GDP is expected flat at 0.0% vs +0.1% prior. The data will inform BoE rate expectations — currently at 3.75% with UK CPI at 2.6% — and near-term GBP direction, with GBP/USD holding at 1.3510 ahead of the print.

Sector Performance

STOXX Europe 600 Sectors · Prior Session

Chemicals▲ 1.14%

Basic Resources▲ 1.08%

Financial Svcs▲ 0.34%

Insurance▲ 0.26%

Telecoms▲ 0.25%

Real Estate▲ 0.23%

Technology▲ 0.19%

Media▲ 0.08%

Food & Bev▲ 0.04%

Utilities▲ 0.04%

Personal & HH Gds▼ 0.09%

Industrials▼ 0.10%

Travel & Leisure▼ 0.17%

Banks▼ 0.19%

Retail▼ 0.31%

Oil & Gas▼ 0.51%

Construction▼ 0.64%

Healthcare▼ 0.68%

Europe Sectors to Watch

Sector Outlook · Signal & Rationale

Energy

Brent near $89/bbl on Iran/Hormuz geopolitical risk supported ENI (+2.01%) and RWE (+1.81%), though Oil & Gas was the fourth-worst European sector (-0.51%) overall, reflecting divergent stock-level vs. sector-index dynamics.

● Neutral

Financials

European Financial Services gained +0.34% and Insurance +0.26% on Wednesday, with the ECB holding rates at 2.25% and German 10-year Bund yields dipping 7.6bp to 2.97%, compressing the rate backdrop for bank net interest margins.

● Neutral

Technology

ASML (+2.66%) and Nokia (+2.26%) led European tech higher on AI earnings read-across from US names CoreWeave and SMCI, with the broader European Technology sector rising +0.19%.

▲ Positive bias

Industrials

European Industrials edged down -0.08% and Construction fell -0.64%, with no specific positive catalysts and ongoing headwinds from elevated energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty.

▼ Negative bias

Healthcare

The worst-performing European sector at -0.68%, with Merck KGaA (-2.44%) and Lonza (-1.60%) among the session's largest losers and no offsetting positive drivers from the data provided.

▼ Negative bias

REITs

European Real Estate edged up +0.23% as the modest dip in German 10-year Bund yields (-7.6bp to 2.97%) provided marginal relief to rate-sensitive property valuations.

● Neutral

Euro Stoxx 50 Top Movers

Prior Close · Top 5 Gainers & Losers · Euro Stoxx 50

▲ Top Gainers

ERG.MIERG S.p.A.Utilities▲ 2.68%

ASML.ASASML Holding N.V.Technology▲ 2.66%

NOKIA.HENokia OyjTechnology▲ 2.26%

ENI.MIEni S.p.A.Energy▲ 2.01%

RWE.DERWE AktiengesellschaftUtilities▲ 1.81%

▼ Top Losers

STLAM.MIStellantis N.V.Consumer Cyclical▼ 2.60%

PRX.ASProsus N.V.Consumer Cyclical▼ 2.50%

MRK.DEMerck KGaAHealthcare▼ 2.44%

HEIA.ASHeineken N.V.Consumer Defensive▼ 2.27%

LONN.SWLonza Group AGHealthcare▼ 1.60%

50/53 Euro Stoxx 50 constituents · prior close

Analysis

Macro Themes

Top 5 Structural Themes · European Focus

Structural Driver

Persistent energy price volatility from geopolitics pushing headline inflation above the 2% target with ECB projections at 2.6% for 2026.

Current Catalyst

Deposit rate held at 2.25% with no immediate hike signaled but vigilance on second-round effects remains.

Watch

Next ECB projections and energy-driven CPI prints for signs of pass-through.

Names to Watch

DBK.DE Deutsche Bank rate sensitivity

BNP.PA BNP Paribas rate sensitivity

HSBA.L HSBC Holdings UK rate path

Structural Driver

Geopolitical supply risks intersecting with EU ETS and transition policies creating volatility in gas and power prices.

Current Catalyst

TTF front-month near €40/MWh while EU carbon allowances at €82/tonne near two-year highs.

Watch

TTF gas and EUA carbon allowance price thresholds amid Middle East developments.

Names to Watch

RWE.DE RWE energy exposure

ENI.MI Eni energy exposure

EQNR.OL Equinor energy exposure

Structural Driver

Iran/Hormuz tensions and Ukraine/Russia frictions elevating energy security and defense spending needs.

Current Catalyst

Oil supported near $80 amid diplomatic deadlock with defense indices outperforming.

Watch

Strait of Hormuz developments and EU defense spending announcements.

Names to Watch

AIR.PA Airbus defense exposure

BA.L BAE Systems defense exposure

ENI.MI Eni energy exposure

Structural Driver

Tame July CPI print lowering near-term Fed hike odds and supporting global risk appetite with AI momentum.

Current Catalyst

S&P 500 +0.26% led by AI names CoreWeave and SMCI with September hike odds under 50%.

Watch

Next US inflation data and Fed speakers for confirmation of rate path.

Names to Watch

ASML.AS ASML Holding semi exposure

NOKIA.HE Nokia tech exposure

IFX.DE Infineon semi exposure

Structural Driver

BoE balancing disinflation progress against energy price pass-through risks in post-Brexit fiscal environment.

Current Catalyst

Bank Rate held at 3.75% with CPI at 2.6% but expected to rise later from energy costs.

Watch

UK CPI prints and BoE votes for signs of second-round effects.

Names to Watch

HSBA.L HSBC Holdings rate sensitivity

BARC.L Barclays rate sensitivity

BP.L BP energy exposure

Market News

Global Macro Overview

Wednesday's tame US July CPI print — headline at +3.4% y/y, in line with expectations — was the dominant macro driver of the session, pushing markets to price less than a 50% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. US 2-year yields fell 3bp to 4.22% and 10-year yields eased 2bp to 4.70%, while the VIX dropped 4.78% to 14.55, signalling a meaningful step-down in near-term risk aversion. Gold extended its advance to $4,408.9/oz (+0.59%), a level that reflects both residual inflation hedging and ongoing geopolitical tension around the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran-related developments continue to support crude — Brent held near $89/bbl. European bourses closed modestly lower despite the constructive US backdrop, with the Euro Stoxx 50 off 0.26% and the SMI the notable underperformer at -0.86%, dragged by Lonza (-1.60%) and broader healthcare sector weakness (-0.68%). The EUR/USD barely moved (-0.02% to 1.1544), reflecting a dollar that firmed only marginally on the DXY (+0.19% to 100.01) as the CPI relief offset residual USD safe-haven demand. GBP/USD similarly held near 1.3510 ahead of this morning's UK GDP release, with EUR/GBP steady at 0.8544, suggesting FX markets are reserving judgement until the data confirms or challenges the BoE's cautious disinflation narrative.

Market-Moving Events · Europe

ECBThe ECB held its deposit rate at 2.25% at its most recent meeting, with the June 2026 decision representing a 25bp hike. Eurozone inflation is projected to average around 2.6% for 2026, revised higher on energy pass-through. The ECB has signalled no immediate further hike but retains vigilance on second-round effects, particularly as energy price volatility tied to Middle East geopolitics persists.

ENERGYTTF front-month gas closed at €60.31/MWh (-1.16%) while UK NBP gas rose sharply by +3.28% to 148.95p/therm, highlighting a divergence between continental and UK gas market dynamics. EU carbon allowances (EUA) held near €82.35/tCO2 (-0.10%), close to two-year highs, reflecting both energy market conditions and ongoing EU ETS overhaul discussions around competitiveness. German power was steady at €120.55/MWh.

MACROEuropean equity indices closed mixed to modestly lower on Wednesday despite the positive US CPI backdrop. The DAX fell 0.23% to 26,331.07, the CAC 40 declined 0.46% to 8,674.94, and the Euro Stoxx 50 lost 0.26% to 6,533.99. The SMI was the weakest major European index at -0.86%, weighed by healthcare names including Lonza Group (-1.60%). The FTSE 100 declined 0.10% to 10,833.2.

SECTORSEuropean sector performance was bifurcated on Wednesday. Chemicals (+1.14%) and Basic Resources (+1.08%) led gains, followed by Financial Services (+0.34%) and Insurance (+0.26%). On the downside, Healthcare (-0.68%), Construction (-0.64%), Oil & Gas (-0.51%), and Retail (-0.31%) were the main laggards, with Banks also slightly negative at -0.19%.

BOEThe Bank of England holds its Bank Rate at 3.75% following its July 2026 decision (6-3 vote). UK CPI stands at 2.6% but is expected to move higher later in 2026 driven by energy costs. This morning's UK GDP data (08:00 CET) — with monthly GDP forecast at 0.0% vs prior 0.1%, and preliminary Q2 GDP at +0.4% q/q vs prior +0.6% — is the key near-term data point for BoE watchers and GBP positioning.

GEOGeopolitical risk from Middle East tensions and Ukraine/Russia dynamics continued to shape European energy security concerns and support defence and energy sector narratives. Oil prices near $89/bbl (Brent) and elevated EU carbon prices reflect the market's ongoing assessment of supply disruption risk, with direct implications for power-intensive European industrials and chemicals companies.

Market-Moving Events · Americas

MACROUS July CPI came in at +3.4% y/y, meeting consensus, and was the session's pivotal data point. The in-line print reduced conviction around a September Fed hike, with market-implied odds falling below 50%. Both the 2-year (-3bp to 4.22%) and 10-year (-2bp to 4.70%) Treasury yields retreated in response.

TECHAI-linked names led US equity gains on Wednesday. CoreWeave (CRWV) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) were cited as session leaders following strong results and forward outlooks, contributing to a Nasdaq advance of +0.54% to 26,588.49. The Russell 2000 also outperformed, rising +0.61% to 3,045.48, reflecting the broader risk-on tilt post-CPI.

MACROThe S&P 500 closed +0.26% at 7,748.50 and the Dow was essentially flat at -0.04% (53,770.27), illustrating a divergence between large-cap tech momentum and more cyclical or defensive index components. The VIX fell 4.78% to 14.55, consistent with the reduction in near-term rate uncertainty.

ENERGYCrude oil held near recent levels with Brent at $88.98/bbl (+0.08%) and WTI at $83.27/bbl (+0.08%), underpinned by ongoing geopolitical deadlock between Washington and Tehran and persistent Strait of Hormuz risk. Natural gas (Henry Hub) rose 1.34% to $2.80/MMBtu. The macro tone was constructive but energy price levels remain sensitive to any escalation in the Middle East.

FEDWith the July CPI in line and September hike odds below 50%, focus now shifts to today's US PPI data (core PPI m/m forecast +0.3%, up from prior +0.2%) and weekly unemployment claims (forecast 202K vs prior 199K), which will be scrutinised for any signs of re-accelerating producer price pressures or labour market tightening that could revive tightening expectations.

Market-Moving Events · Asia-Pacific

JAPANJapan's Nikkei 225 gained 0.83% to 67,524.06 at Wednesday's close, extending post-holiday advances in technology and financials. The session's gains were driven by AI-related US earnings momentum from CoreWeave and SMCI, and by the relief in near-term Fed tightening odds following the in-line US CPI print.

CHINAThe Shanghai Composite (SSE) rose 0.32% to 3,946.68 while Hong Kong's Hang Seng (HKEX) fell 0.83% to 25,440.17, illustrating continued divergence between mainland and offshore China sentiment. The broader MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index rose approximately 0.97%, with South Korean equities noted as a standout gainer (+4.4%) on the session.

APACAustralia's ASX 200 underperformed the regional trend, declining 0.45% to 9,209.4. Weakness in copper (-0.23% to $6.597/lb) and aluminium (-1.35% to $3,423/t) provided a headwind to the resources-heavy index, even as iron ore was essentially flat at $95.09/t. These base metal moves are relevant context for European mining and basic resources names.

Economic Calendar

Time (CET)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
08:00	GB	GDP m/m	High	0.1%	0.0%
08:00	GB	Prelim GDP q/q	Medium	0.6%	0.4%
14:30	US	Core PPI m/m	High	0.2%	0.3%
14:30	US	PPI m/m	High	-0.3%	0.2%
14:30	US	Unemployment Claims	Medium	199K	202K

Risks & Watch Items

Key Risks · Geopolitical · Energy · ECB Policy · Trade

MACROUK GDP data due at 08:00 CET — monthly GDP forecast 0.0% and Q2 preliminary at +0.4% q/q vs +0.6% prior — is the first major data risk event of the European session, with direct implications for BoE rate expectations and GBP.

FEDUS Core PPI m/m (forecast +0.3%, prior +0.2%) and headline PPI m/m (forecast +0.2%, prior -0.3%) are due at 14:30 CET and will be scrutinised as the next read on US producer-level inflation following yesterday's in-line CPI.

GEOIran-related developments and Strait of Hormuz tensions remain an active risk, with Brent near $89/bbl; any escalation could rapidly reprice European energy and power markets, where TTF and German baseload are already elevated.

ECBGerman 10-year Bund yields fell a notable 7.6bp to 2.97% on Wednesday — the sharpest move in the yield data shown — and the driver and durability of this move warrants monitoring given the ECB's stated vigilance on second-round inflation effects.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security.

Errors & omissions. Analytical and narrative content is prepared using automated research and data aggregation processes and may not reflect the most current market conditions or events. Always verify information independently before acting on it.

Market data. Price data is sourced from publicly available third-party providers including Yahoo Finance and the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED). Data may be delayed, incomplete, or subject to error.

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