Middle East geopolitical tension centred on the US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions remains the dominant macro risk driver heading into Monday's open, with Brent crude holding near $94.39/bbl and WTI at $87.06/bbl — levels that are sustaining euro area inflation in the 2.8–3% range and feeding second-round effects that central banks are watching closely. The VIX declined 5.50% to 15.13 on Friday, suggesting near-term volatility is being partially priced out, but US 10-year yields rose 4bp to 4.69%, keeping the broader rates backdrop restrictive; gold's 2.39% surge to $4,624.10/oz and Bitcoin's 7.26% jump to $78,335 signal concurrent safe-haven and risk-on demand — an unusual split that reflects the market's uncertain read on the macro regime. European equity markets closed higher across the board on Friday — DAX +0.59%, FTSE 100 +0.64%, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.63% — but the gains mask underlying energy and policy stress: TTF gas at €65.91/MWh and EU carbon allowances at €82.61/tCO₂ are compressing margins for heavy industrial users including ArcelorMittal (MT.AS) and BASF (BAS.DE), while EUR/USD at 1.1688 (+0.12%) and GBP/USD at 1.3643 (+0.32%) reflect modest USD softness on DXY's 0.10% decline to 98.8 rather than any broad European outperformance. The EUR/GBP cross fell 0.20% to 0.8566, indicating sterling outpacing the euro — consistent with differing inflation and rate-path expectations between the ECB and the Bank of England. Cross-asset pressure is most concentrated in rate-sensitive sectors — real estate and utilities — alongside energy-intensive industrials facing both high input costs and potential ECB tightening as markets price a deposit rate move to 2.50% at the September meeting.