WYS Americas · Thu 25 Jun 2026 — Overnight Markets Brief

While You Slept — AmericasOvernight Global Markets · US Morning Brief

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · THURSDAY 25 JUNE 2026 · WYS EDITION 023

Data as of close Wednesday 24 June 2026 close · Generated 25 June 2026 8:00 AM ET · S-260606_1148 / T-260616_2032

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3.63%

Rate cycle -- last 12 decisions

Next FOMC Meeting

29 July 2026

Decision at 2:00 pm ET

35 days away

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1.1380

▼ 0.41%

Euro / US Dollar

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US Focus

Key Stories for US Markets

NYSE & NASDAQ News & Impact

TECHMicron's 14% after-hours surge and SK Hynix's Nasdaq listing announcement are the clearest positive catalysts for ASX technology proxies today — WiseTech Global (WTC), Xero (XRO), and NextDC (NXT) should attract buying interest, while memory and AI infrastructure plays like Macquarie Technology Group (MAQ) may see sympathy moves; S&P 500 futures are up 0.7% and Nasdaq 100 futures up 2.1% ahead of the open, providing a constructive backdrop for ASX tech at open.

MINERSThe overnight commodity rout is a direct and significant negative for ASX large-cap miners: gold fell 3.4% to $3,990/oz and silver collapsed 6.4% to $58.05/oz, pointing to heavy selling pressure on Newcrest-successor Northern Star Resources (NST), Evolution Mining (EVN), and Silver Lake Resources (SLR); copper's 3.2% decline to $5.943/lb and aluminium's 4.1% fall to $3,585/t will weigh on BHP (BHP), Rio Tinto (RIO), and South32 (S32) at the open.

ENERGYBrent crude's 4.3% decline to $73.74 and WTI's fall to $70.34 — both at their lowest since before the Middle East conflict — is a clear negative for ASX energy producers; Woodside Energy (WDS) and Santos (STO) face direct earnings per barrel pressure, though Woodside's LNG export revenues have partial support from stable LNG export prices at $13.55/MMBtu; the energy sector's trajectory will depend on whether tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz continue to normalise.

BANKSThe RBA's hold at 4.35% with a hawkish lean — and Westpac's forecast of two further hikes to 4.85% — creates a mixed picture for the big four: higher rates compress mortgage volumes and asset quality but support net interest margins; ANZ (ANZ), Commonwealth Bank (CBA), Westpac (WBC), and NAB (NAB) will also be watching today's US PCE print, as a hot number could push global long-end yields higher and widen the spread between funding costs and lending rates, a net negative for bank valuations on a price-to-book basis.

AUDThe AUD/USD is holding near 0.6913 against a firmer DXY (101.61, +0.20%) and faces continued downward pressure — a stronger USD driven by Fed rate hike expectations, combined with falling iron ore (flat at $100.52/t but vulnerable given Chinese fixed-asset investment down 4.1%), gold, and copper prices, reduces the commodity income underpinning the currency; AUD weakness is a tailwind for earnings translation at global exporters like Macquarie Group (MQG) and James Hardie (JHX) but a headwind for import-cost-sensitive retailers.

REITSThe US REIT sector (XLRE) fell 0.29% overnight and Australian REITs face a dual headwind from the RBA's tightening bias — cash rate at 4.35% with upside risk to 4.85% — and rising long-end bond yields globally; Goodman Group (GMG) retains structural support from data centre and logistics demand linked to AI infrastructure, but retail and office-exposed REITs including Scentre Group (SCG) and Dexus (DXS) remain under valuation pressure in a higher-for-longer rate environment.

Sector Performance

US Sectors · Overnight Performance

Industrials▲ 1.16%

Cons. Discretionary▲ 1.15%

Utilities▲ 1.04%

Cons. Staples▲ 0.86%

Health Care▲ 0.77%

Materials▲ 0.57%

Real Estate▼ 0.29%

Financials▼ 0.30%

Technology▼ 0.62%

Comm. Services▼ 0.68%

Energy▼ 1.63%

ASX sector indices not yet verified — check NAS log and update _ASX_SECTOR_TICKERS.

US Sectors to Watch

Sector Outlook · Signal & Rationale

Energy

Brent crude fell 4.3% to $73.74 and WTI dropped 3.9% to $70.34 as Strait of Hormuz tankers resumed movement post-MOU, directly pressuring Woodside (WDS) and Santos (STO) earnings.

▼ Negative bias

Financials

RBA holds at 4.35% with a hawkish lean and Westpac forecasting two more hikes, creating a mixed NIM-versus-volume dynamic for the big four banks, while private credit names globally were hit by redemption disclosures.

● Neutral

Technology

Micron's record $41.5 billion revenue beat and 14% after-hours surge, plus SK Hynix's $29.4 billion Nasdaq listing, provide a strong positive impulse for ASX tech proxies including WiseTech (WTC) and NextDC (NXT).

▲ Positive bias

Materials

Gold fell 3.4%, silver 6.4%, copper 3.2%, and aluminium 4.1% overnight, creating broad selling pressure across BHP (BHP), Rio Tinto (RIO), South32 (S32), and gold miners Northern Star (NST) and Evolution (EVN).

▼ Negative bias

Healthcare

US Healthcare sector (XLV) was a top performer overnight (+0.77%), and IQVIA (IQV) and Charles River Laboratories (CRL) surged 8%+ in the S&P 500, providing a modest positive read-through for ASX healthcare names including CSL (CSL).

▲ Positive bias

REITs

RBA rate hike risk to 4.85% by September and elevated long-end bond yields globally maintain valuation pressure on Australian REITs, with the US REIT sector (XLRE) also declining 0.29% overnight.

▼ Negative bias

S&P 500 Top Movers

Prior Close · Top 5 Gainers & Losers · S&P 500

▲ Top Gainers

DDDuPont de NemoursInc.▲ 185.99%

BLDRBuilders FirstSourceInc.▲ 11.31%

IQVIQVIA Holdings Inc.Healthcare▲ 8.37%

CRLCharles River Laboratories Inter…Inc.▲ 8.31%

UALUnited Airlines HoldingsInc.▲ 7.40%

▼ Top Losers

APOApollo Global ManagementInc.▼ 6.13%

BXBlackstone Inc.Financial Services▼ 5.90%

HOODRobinhood MarketsInc.▼ 5.87%

ARESAres Management CorporationFinancial Services▼ 5.72%

COINCoinbase GlobalInc.▼ 5.10%

503/503 S&P 500 constituents · prior close

Context & Analysis

Macro Themes

Top 5 Structural Themes · Global & US Market Implications

Structural Driver

The multi-year AI capex supercycle is forcing hyperscalers and chipmakers to scale full-stack data centers, GPUs and grid infrastructure rather than pure semiconductor exposure. US data center electricity demand is projected to rise 133 percent to 426 TWh by 2030 from 183 TWh in 2024, creating structural shortages in power, cooling and transmission. This dynamic is shifting capital toward energy-intensive infrastructure and away from broad technology valuations.

Current Catalyst

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang flagged 100 gigawatts of AI factories coming online before 2030, triggering rotation into power-adjacent names while broader technology fell 0.6 percent on 24 June.

Watch

NVIDIA earnings and hyperscaler capex updates due in the week of 29 June 2026

ASX Names to Watch

BLDR Builders FirstSource +11.3% Wed · data center construction exposure

DD DuPont de Nemours +186.0% Wed · materials for power infrastructure

IQV IQVIA Holdings +8.4% Wed · tech services adjacency

Structural Driver

Electrification, EV demand and now AI-driven power needs are intersecting to create structural shortages in copper, uranium and lithium as nuclear and gas baseload capacity expands. Additional US gas demand of 3-6 billion cubic feet per day by 2030 and nuclear covering roughly 10 percent of data center growth by 2035 are tightening supply balances. Resources sit at the center of AI, defense and clean energy megatrends simultaneously.

Current Catalyst

Data center power crunch forecasts released mid-June lifted uranium and copper names while energy sector fell 1.6 percent on 24 June amid broader rotation.

Watch

US CPI release and RBA policy decision on 1-2 July 2026

ASX Names to Watch

DD DuPont de Nemours +186.0% Wed · critical materials leverage

BLDR Builders FirstSource +11.3% Wed · infrastructure build exposure

CRL Charles River Laboratories +8.3% Wed · industrial supply chain play

Structural Driver

Elevated structural inflation from supply constraints, debt levels and real-economy demand is keeping policy rates above pre-2022 norms and sustaining yield volatility. Ten-year Treasury yields pushed above 4.52 percent with futures now pricing a possible Fed rate hike by year-end instead of cuts. This environment supports bank net interest margins while pressuring rate-sensitive valuations.

Current Catalyst

10-year yields broke above 4.52 percent on 24 June as markets repriced a year-end Fed hike, coinciding with RBA’s third consecutive rate increase noted in May.

Watch

Fed Chair’s first FOMC meeting and fresh CPI data in the week of 29 June 2026

ASX Names to Watch

BX Blackstone -5.9% Wed · rate-sensitive asset manager

APO Apollo Global Management -6.1% Wed · private credit exposure

ARES Ares Management -5.7% Wed · alternative asset pressure

Structural Driver

De-globalization and conflict risks in the Middle East are driving higher capex on secure supply chains, defense and diversified energy sources. Persistent China low-growth and deflation backdrop is reshaping commodity demand and trade flows. This fragmentation is raising baseline costs and redirecting investment toward friend-shored resources and infrastructure.

Current Catalyst

Escalating Middle East incidents involving US assets on 23-24 June boosted energy and defense narratives while energy sector lagged down 1.6 percent.

Watch

US Treasury and defense budget updates expected by 2 July 2026

ASX Names to Watch

UAL United Airlines Holdings +7.4% Wed · geopolitical transport exposure

HOOD Robinhood Markets -5.9% Wed · retail flow sensitivity

COIN Coinbase Global -5.1% Wed · risk-asset volatility

Structural Driver

Heightened geopolitical risks are accelerating government budgets for defense, dual-use technology and secure critical-mineral supply chains. Overlap with AI infrastructure and energy transition is amplifying cross-sector demand for materials and industrial capacity. Retail and institutional flows are rotating into these themes alongside resources.

Current Catalyst

Broad 2026 outlooks released in mid-June highlighted defense as a core theme, with flows accelerating into defense-adjacent industrials on 24 June.

Watch

Australian defence budget and US DoD contract announcements in early July 2026

ASX Names to Watch

CRL Charles River Laboratories +8.3% Wed · dual-use industrial exposure

BLDR Builders FirstSource +11.3% Wed · secure infrastructure build

DD DuPont de Nemours +186.0% Wed · defense materials play

Overnight Briefing

Global Macro Overview

Risk sentiment is navigating a complex crosscurrent: the US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed on 18 June has allowed stranded tankers to clear the Strait of Hormuz, driving Brent crude down 4.3% to $73.74 and WTI to $70.34, while the VIX fell 4.4% to 18.63, signalling reduced near-term fear on Wall Street. However, central banks globally remain in a tightening posture — the Fed is expected to hike three times in 2026 under Chair Kevin Warsh, the ECB raised rates 25bp on 11 June to a deposit rate of 2.25%, and the RBA has already delivered three hikes this year to 4.35%, with Westpac forecasting two more by September. The dominant overnight earnings story is Micron Technology's fiscal Q3 blowout — record revenue of $41.5 billion, adjusted EPS of $25.11, and Q4 guidance of ~$50 billion in revenue at ~86% gross margin — sending its shares up 14% after hours and catalysing a broad semiconductor rally. Geopolitical risk has not fully dissipated: the Middle East MOU leaves 60 days of negotiations ahead, and the Trump administration's fresh investigation targeting 60 countries for tariffs of 10–12.5% adds a lingering trade policy overhang.

For Asia-Pacific markets opening Thursday, the Micron result is the key positive impulse, having already lifted the KOSPI by 3.3% overnight and fuelling SK Hynix's announcement of a $29.4 billion Nasdaq ADR listing targeting a July 10 debut. The sharp sell-off in gold (–3.4% to $3,990), silver (–6.4%), copper (–3.2%), and aluminium (–4.1%) is a material headwind for ASX resources names, while falling oil prices will weigh on energy producers but provide a modest relief valve on the RBA's inflation calculus. The AUD/USD holding near 0.6913 faces continued pressure from a firmer DXY at 101.61, and the ASX 200 — which closed Wednesday at 8,808 — must weigh the semiconductor tailwind against broad commodity weakness and the prospect of today's US May PCE print reshaping Fed rate expectations.

Market-Moving Events · Americas

EARNINGSMicron Technology delivered a historic fiscal Q3 2026 beat — adjusted EPS of $25.11 (vs consensus, beat of $4.62) on record revenue of $41.46 billion (beat of $5.77 billion), with data centre sales surging more than sevenfold year-on-year to $11.5 billion. Q4 guidance of ~$50 billion revenue and ~$31 EPS at ~86% gross margin was equally explosive, with CEO Sanjay Mehrotra stating the company has 'no line of sight' on when memory supply can catch up with demand. Shares surged ~14% after hours to ~$1,190, extending a year-to-date gain of approximately 325%.

MACROUS May PCE inflation data — the Federal Reserve's preferred price gauge — is due Thursday and will be the critical macro read of the session. US headline CPI hit 4.2% in May and PPI surged to 6.5% annually, while core CPI came in at 2.9%; Bank of America expects Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to deliver three rate hikes in September, October, and December 2026, making the PCE print a live market mover for both bonds and equities.

HOUSINGThe US House passed a sweeping bipartisan housing bill 358-32, following an 85-5 Senate vote, empowering local governments to streamline development reviews and restricting Wall Street firms from buying homes — Builders FirstSource (BLDR) surged 11.3% on the session as the most direct S&P 500 beneficiary of the legislation.

FINANCIALSPrivate credit and alternative asset managers were the session's worst performers after Morgan Stanley and Apollo Global disclosed large fund redemption requests — Apollo (APO) fell 6.1%, Blackstone (BX) 5.9%, Ares Management (ARES) 5.7%, and Robinhood (HOOD) 5.9% amid broader crypto weakness, with Bitcoin down 2.7% to $60,995 and Ethereum off 2.7% to $1,620.

ENERGYOil was the session's defining commodity move, with Brent crude falling $3.34 or 4.3% to $73.74 and WTI dropping 3.9% to $70.34 — both settling at their lowest levels since before the Middle East conflict began — as tankers previously stranded in the Strait of Hormuz resumed passage following the US-Iran MOU; the Energy sector ETF (XLE) was the worst-performing US sector, off 1.63%, and precious metal miners Newmont (NEM), Coeur Mining (CDE), and Hecla Mining (HL) tumbled alongside gold's 3.4% decline.

Market-Moving Events · Europe

ECBThe ECB raised its three key rates by 25 basis points on 11 June — taking the deposit facility rate to 2.25% — citing Middle East-driven inflation pressures, and its 24 June Economic Bulletin warned that geopolitical oil supply shocks historically weaken consumption and investment with lasting negative effects on growth; the ECB's baseline now projects Eurozone GDP at just 0.8% in 2026 and headline inflation averaging 3.0%, with markets pricing at least one further hike this year.

ECBECB President Lagarde, in her most recent parliamentary testimony, welcomed the Middle East peace memorandum but cautioned that the situation remains fragile with risks of re-escalation, noting the full inflation and growth implications depend on the duration and intensity of the energy price shock — a comment that keeps the ECB's September meeting live for another hike despite the eurozone economy having contracted in Q1 2026.

BOEThe Bank of England held rates unchanged at 3.75% on 18 June in a 7-2 vote, with two MPC members pushing for a 25bp hike; UK CPI at 2.8% in May remains above the 2% target, and the BoE noted that Middle East-driven fuel and commodity prices have disrupted its earlier expectation that inflation would return to target through the remainder of 2026.

MACROThursday's UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY, 09:01 ET) is the sole scheduled European data release, with a forecast of +0.6% — a significant turnaround from the prior reading of –3.4% — and will offer an early read on whether British consumers are showing any resilience against elevated inflation and tighter monetary conditions.

MACROEuropean equity markets closed mixed on Wednesday — the DAX fell 0.62% to 24,740 and Euro Stoxx 50 lost 0.25% to 6,214, weighed by energy and materials weakness, while the FTSE 100 gained 0.31% to 10,461 and CAC 40 rose 0.54% to 8,385, with the divergence reflecting the FTSE's oil-heavy composition being offset by relief from the weaker sterling (GBP/USD –0.35% to 1.3200).

Market-Moving Events · Asia-Pacific

KOREASouth Korea's KOSPI surged 3.26% to 8,471 at Wednesday's close and extended gains to 4.74% in Thursday's session to 8,872, directly driven by SK Hynix's announcement of a $29.4 billion Nasdaq ADR listing — 17.79 million new shares targeting a July 10 debut — which combined with Micron's earnings blowout to trigger a broad semiconductor and memory-chip rally across the Korean market.

JAPANJapan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.88% to 69,175 at Wednesday's close but surged 3.44% to 71,557 in Thursday's session, buoyed by Micron's earnings and the broader AI/semiconductor tailwind; the Nikkei VIX spiked 26.6% to 39.69 on Wednesday — an outlier move that warrants attention as it may reflect hedging activity around the yen (USD/JPY at 161.6) rather than pure fear, though Australian investors with Japanese equity exposure should monitor currency dynamics carefully.

CHINAChinese macro data continues to deteriorate — fixed-asset investment fell 4.1% in the first five months of 2026 (worst since May 2020), property investment plunged 16.2%, and retail sales contracted slightly in May, with Q2 GDP now tracking materially below Q1's 5% pace; the SSE Composite held fractionally positive at 4,111 (+0.11%) but the Hang Seng fell 1.58% to 23,041 in Thursday's session, reflecting weak domestic demand and property sector stress.

RBARBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser reiterated on 24 June that inflation at 4.0% annually is 'too high' and that the Bank has 'more work to do,' though he acknowledged falling global oil prices from Middle East de-escalation would be a positive development; with the big four banks split on the outlook and Westpac forecasting two further 25bp hikes in August and September to 4.85%, the 11 August RBA decision is now squarely live — and today's US PCE print will inform that calculus.

ASXThe ASX 200 closed Wednesday at 8,808 (+0.24%) but Thursday morning data shows it trading down 0.35% to 8,777 as broad commodity weakness — gold –3.4%, copper –3.2%, aluminium –4.1%, and crude oil –4.3% — overwhelms the semiconductor positive and creates a net headwind for the resources-heavy index ahead of the local open.

Economic Calendar

Time (ET)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
09:01	GB	BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY	Medium	-3.4	0.6

Risks & Watch Items

Key Risks · Geopolitical · Supply Chain · Policy

MACROUS May PCE inflation data releases today — the Fed's preferred gauge — and a hot print could lock in September, October, and December hikes under Chair Warsh, driving US yields and DXY higher and pressuring both the AUD and ASX rate-sensitive sectors.

GEOThe US-Iran MOU has 60 days of negotiations remaining before any final agreement, and President Lagarde has explicitly flagged re-escalation risk — a breakdown could reverse the oil price decline and reignite the stagflationary impulse that has been weighing on global growth forecasts.

TARIFFThe Trump administration's active investigation targeting 60 countries for tariffs of 10–12.5% on US-bound exports is a latent supply chain and earnings risk for ASX-listed companies with US revenue exposure, particularly in the industrials and materials space.

RISKThe Nikkei VIX spiking 26.6% to 39.69 overnight — a sharp outlier versus the ASX VIX at 12.11 and the CBOE VIX at 18.63 — warrants monitoring as a potential signal of stress in Japanese institutional hedging or yen carry-trade positioning, given USD/JPY is elevated at 161.6.

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