The dominant macro theme remains the US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed on 18 June, which has pulled crude oil back toward $70–75 per barrel from peaks above $100, offering meaningful inflation relief — though the deal is not finalised and a 60-day negotiating window leaves room for renewed escalation. Against this backdrop, the global monetary policy stance has turned decisively hawkish: the ECB delivered its first rate hike since 2023 earlier this month, the Fed held but Chair Kevin Warsh signalled rate hikes are more likely than cuts with nine of 18 officials pencilling in at least one increase, and May US PCE came in at 4.1% year-over-year — the hottest print since April 2023. The OECD now expects global GDP growth to slow to 2.8% in 2026, and risk appetite remains cautious despite equity markets hovering near record highs, with the VIX ticking up to 18.89 on Thursday.
For Asia-Pacific markets opening today, the cross-asset picture is mixed but carries meaningful implications for Australian investors. US Treasury yields fell sharply overnight — the 10-year dropped 9 basis points to 4.41% — suggesting some relief in rate expectations, yet the USD/JPY remains elevated at 161.76, keeping pressure on the yen and BOJ policy in focus after the Nikkei surged 4.61% to 72,366. The ASX 200 closed down 0.68% on Thursday at 8,748.7 and faces a cautious open as sticky domestic core inflation at 3.6%, a hawkish RBA at 4.35%, and softening Chinese property data weigh on sentiment; gold's strength at $4,030/oz provides some offset for local gold miners, while a broadly firmer commodity complex — copper up 2.15%, crude up 2.25% — offers selective support for the resources sector heading into Friday's session.