WYS Americas · Mon 29 Jun 2026 — Overnight Markets Brief

While You Slept — AmericasOvernight Global Markets · US Morning Brief

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · MONDAY 29 JUNE 2026 · WYS EDITION 025

Data as of close Friday 26 June 2026 close · Generated 29 June 2026 8:00 AM ET · S-260606_1148 / T-260616_2032

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        Monday morning — all prices reflect Friday 26 June 2026 close
      

        US NYSE market holidays accounted for. Live data resumes next trading session.
      

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Fed Funds Rate

3.63%

Rate cycle -- last 12 decisions

Next FOMC Meeting

29 July 2026

Decision at 2:00 pm ET

33 days away

EUR / USD

1.1362

▲ 0.07%

Euro / US Dollar

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US Focus

Key Stories for US Markets

NYSE & NASDAQ News & Impact

ENERGYASX-listed energy majors Woodside and Santos face a mixed morning: Brent crude's 0.7% bounce to $73.27 this morning is a near-term positive after Friday's sharp 4.34% crude sell-off, but the structural story remains one of supply uncertainty rather than a clean recovery. With Hormuz talks in Qatar on Tuesday, any breakdown in ceasefire negotiations poses a sharp upside risk to oil prices and energy stock re-ratings, while a durable agreement would likely cap gains. Both stocks should be watched closely around Tuesday's geopolitical outcome.

MINERSASX diversified miners BHP, Rio Tinto and South32 have supportive commodity price tailwinds this morning — copper is up 1.17% to $6.14 per pound, aluminium gained 1.31% to $3,697.50 per tonne, and gold continues to surge, up 1.20% to $4,078.70 per ounce — but the China demand picture remains a significant offset. May Chinese retail sales and fixed asset investment came in weaker than expected, and while industrial profits rose 21% year-on-year in May, the rate of growth is decelerating, which tempers the bullish commodity read-through for iron ore-exposed names. Iron ore itself was essentially flat at $100.33 per tonne.

GOLDGold's continued strength — up 1.20% to $4,078.70 per ounce on Friday, with silver up 1.49%, platinum up 1.82% and palladium up 2.44% — is a clear positive for ASX-listed gold producers including Newmont's Australian operations, Northern Star Resources and Evolution Mining. The precious metals complex is benefiting from safe-haven demand amid Hormuz geopolitical uncertainty, elevated inflation globally and the prospect of further central bank policy tightening compressing real returns on risk assets.

TECHASX technology names and ETFs with Nasdaq exposure face headwinds this morning after the Nasdaq fell 4.6% for the week and 0.24% on Friday, with the OpenAI IPO delay report and broad semiconductor weakness — AMD -2.6%, Arm Holdings -4%, Marvell -3.4% — likely to weigh on locally listed tech names and funds tracking the Nasdaq 100. The Nikkei's further 1% decline this morning on AI-related selling adds to the negative regional read-through for growth and technology stocks.

BANKSASX major banks — CBA, ANZ, NAB and Westpac — face a nuanced session. The RBA's retained tightening bias and Westpac's own forecast for two further rate hikes in August and September support bank net interest margin outlooks, but elevated mortgage stress risks at a 4.35% cash rate and slowing consumer spending are headwinds for credit quality. Interestingly, Friday's US session saw the XLF financials sector ETF gain 0.22% while XLRE real estate rose 1.46%, suggesting the market is not uniformly punishing rate-sensitive sectors in the near term.

REITSAustralian REITs may find some support from Friday's US session, where the XLRE real estate ETF gained 1.46% — the second-best performing US sector — even as the broader market dipped. Domestically, however, the RBA's tightening bias and Westpac's hawkish forecast for two more hikes represent the key risk: higher-for-longer Australian rates compress REIT valuations and increase refinancing costs for heavily leveraged property trusts including Scentre Group, GPT and Dexus.

Sector Performance

US Sectors · Overnight Performance

Health Care▲ 3.03%

Real Estate▲ 1.46%

Cons. Staples▲ 0.92%

Cons. Discretionary▲ 0.90%

Utilities▲ 0.76%

Comm. Services▲ 0.57%

Financials▲ 0.22%

Energy▼ 0.46%

Materials▼ 0.46%

Industrials▼ 1.59%

Technology▼ 1.87%

ASX sector indices not yet verified — check NAS log and update _ASX_SECTOR_TICKERS.

US Sectors to Watch

Sector Outlook · Signal & Rationale

Energy

Brent crude bounced 0.7% to $73.27 this morning but a fragile Hormuz ceasefire and persistent Gulf infrastructure damage keep the supply outlook binary ahead of Tuesday's Qatar talks.

● Neutral

Financials

RBA's explicit tightening bias and Westpac's forecast for two more hikes support NIM expansion for major banks, but rising mortgage stress at 4.35% cash rate caps upside.

● Neutral

Technology

The Nasdaq's 4.6% weekly fall, OpenAI IPO delay, and continued semiconductor selloff in Tokyo and Seoul create a negative read-through for ASX tech and Nasdaq-exposed ETFs.

▼ Negative bias

Materials

Copper +1.17%, aluminium +1.31% and gold at $4,078.70 are supportive, but iron ore flat at $100.33 and weak Chinese domestic demand data limit the upside for diversified miners.

● Neutral

Healthcare

Moderna surged 12.59% on Friday — the S&P 500's top gainer — and the XLV healthcare ETF rose 3.03%, providing a positive global read-through for ASX healthcare and biotech names.

▲ Positive bias

REITs

US XLRE gained 1.46% on Friday but the RBA's tightening bias and Westpac's call for two further domestic rate hikes remain the dominant valuation headwind for Australian property trusts.

● Neutral

S&P 500 Top Movers

Prior Close · Top 5 Gainers & Losers · S&P 500

▲ Top Gainers

MRNAModernaInc.▲ 12.59%

FDSFactSet Research Systems Inc.Financial Services▲ 10.97%

NOWServiceNowInc.▲ 9.85%

WDAYWorkdayInc.▲ 9.18%

DDOGDatadogInc.▲ 8.52%

▼ Top Losers

ONON Semiconductor CorporationTechnology▼ 23.66%

WDCWestern Digital CorporationTechnology▼ 13.17%

STXSeagate Technology Holdings plcTechnology▼ 12.24%

SNDKSandisk CorporationTechnology▼ 10.46%

KEYSKeysight TechnologiesInc.▼ 8.72%

503/503 S&P 500 constituents · prior close

Context & Analysis

Macro Themes

Top 5 Structural Themes · Global & US Market Implications

Structural Driver

The AI supercycle is forcing a multi-year buildout of physical infrastructure including data centers, power generation and transmission grids, with global spending projected above US$2 trillion over five years and US data center electricity demand rising sharply from 183 TWh in 2024. This creates sustained demand for copper cabling, transformers and generation capacity that extends beyond semiconductors into real assets and commodities. Hyperscaler capex running at US$500-600 billion annually in 2026 locks in the structural bid.

Current Catalyst

Friday 26 June S&P 500 rotation showed NOW +9.8%, WDAY +9.2% and DDOG +8.5% outperforming while broader Technology fell 1.9%, confirming infrastructure monetization over pure chip exposure amid ongoing hyperscaler spend.

Watch

US June CPI release on 10 July 2026 for confirmation of cooling inflation supporting further liquidity and capex

ASX Names to Watch

BHP BHP Group +1.8% Fri · copper exposure to data center electrification

RIO Rio Tinto +2.1% Fri · power cabling and grid materials demand

FMG Fortescue +0.9% Fri · renewables and energy transition metals

ILU Iluka Resources +3.4% Fri · rare earths for high-voltage equipment

Structural Driver

Electrification, EV adoption and AI power infrastructure are driving multi-year structural demand for copper, lithium, nickel and rare earths while China retains processing dominance, prompting Western governments to prioritize supply security. Australia’s doubling of its Critical Minerals Facility to A$4 billion directly supports domestic production and offtake agreements. Overlap between green transition and digitalization demand creates a durable price floor.

Current Catalyst

Policy announcement expanding Australia’s Critical Minerals Facility to A$4 billion combined with Friday sector rotation lifting materials names while ON fell 23.7% on semis weakness, highlighting physical supply constraints over finished components.

Watch

China Q2 industrial production data due 15 July 2026 for demand signal on battery metals

ASX Names to Watch

BHP BHP Group +1.8% Fri · nickel and copper output guidance

RIO Rio Tinto +2.1% Fri · copper expansion projects

PLS Pilbara Minerals +4.2% Fri · lithium offtake contracts

ILU Iluka Resources +3.4% Fri · rare earths refining ramp

Structural Driver

Divergent central bank paths between the Fed and other major banks are reshaping real yields, USD flows and borrowing costs, with improving US liquidity conditions creating a QE-like environment that favors rate-sensitive cyclicals and commodities. June 2026 nowcasts show US inflation risks rolling over, prompting market repricing of terminal rates. This dynamic directly affects net interest margins for banks and discount rates for REITs and resources.

Current Catalyst

Friday 26 June sector moves lifted Real Estate +1.5% and Cons. Staples +0.9% while Technology fell 1.9%, reflecting rotation into rate-sensitive assets as liquidity signals improved.

Watch

RBA July policy meeting minutes on 7 July 2026 for Australian rate path signals

ASX Names to Watch

CBA Commonwealth Bank +0.7% Fri · net interest margin sensitivity

NAB National Australia Bank +0.5% Fri · lending growth outlook

WBC Westpac +0.4% Fri · deposit and rate repricing

GMG Goodman Group +1.2% Fri · data center REIT exposure

Structural Driver

Strategic rivalry and tariff policies are elevating supply chain resilience over efficiency, particularly in critical minerals, energy and technology, with reshoring incentives and domestic production mandates reshaping trade flows. Australia’s position as a non-Chinese supplier of resources gains premium status under these conditions. Ongoing US policy uncertainty sustains volatility in exporter margins and FX.

Current Catalyst

Continued US tariff uncertainty through late June alongside Middle East energy risk developments pressured WDC -13.2% and STX -12.2% while lifting ASX resources names on supply security bids.

Watch

US July tariff review announcements expected 8-12 July 2026

ASX Names to Watch

BHP BHP Group +1.8% Fri · China trade exposure hedge

RIO Rio Tinto +2.1% Fri · diversified offtake contracts

FMG Fortescue +0.9% Fri · non-Chinese iron ore premium

S32 South32 +1.5% Fri · base metals diversification

Structural Driver

Valuation concerns in AI leaders are driving capital into defensives, healthcare, REITs and commodities amid uneven earnings breadth, with Friday’s S&P 500 action confirming the shift as Health Care rose 3.0% while Technology fell 1.9%. Broadening participation reduces concentration risk and supports cyclicals tied to infrastructure and resources. This rotation aligns with liquidity improvements favoring non-growth sectors.

Current Catalyst

Friday 26 June moves delivered MRNA +12.6% and Health Care +3.0% outperformance versus ON -23.7% and Technology -1.9%, marking the clearest rotation signal of the week.

Watch

US Q2 earnings season kickoff with major banks 14 July 2026 for breadth confirmation

ASX Names to Watch

CSL CSL +2.3% Fri · defensive healthcare bid

BHP BHP Group +1.8% Fri · commodities broadening

RIO Rio Tinto +2.1% Fri · value rotation into resources

GMG Goodman Group +1.2% Fri · REIT infrastructure exposure

Overnight Briefing

Global Macro Overview

The dominant macro driver heading into the final week of June 2026 is the fragile Iran-US ceasefire, with Hormuz corridor talks scheduled for Tuesday in Qatar after a weekend that saw Iran launch missiles and drones at US military installations in Kuwait and Bahrain before both sides agreed to halt hostilities on Sunday. Despite a modest Brent crude relief bounce to $73.27 this morning, analysts caution that tanker backlogs, damaged infrastructure and Persian Gulf production shut-ins mean physical supply constraints will persist well into the second half of the year even if diplomacy holds. Against that backdrop, global growth is now projected to slow to 2.5% in 2026 — the weakest since the COVID-19 pandemic — while coordinated monetary tightening across the Fed, ECB and RBA compounds the demand headwind. A severe re-escalation scenario, per World Bank modelling, could drag global GDP to just 1.3% this year.

For Asia-Pacific markets opening today, the cross-asset picture is mixed and skewed toward caution. The Nikkei 225 is down a further 1% this morning after its savage 4.15% Friday fall, driven by AI-related selling that also triggered a KOSPI circuit breaker — the index down roughly 6% — reflecting the severity of the tech unwind following the OpenAI IPO delay report and broader semiconductor weakness. Commodity markets offer a partial offset for resource-heavy bourses: gold is at $4,078.70 per ounce, copper is up 1.17% to $6.14 per pound and aluminium gained 1.31%, all of which should provide a degree of support for ASX materials names. The ASX 200 is outperforming the region this morning, up 0.4% to 8,798, with the local VIX at a subdued 11.72 — a relative calm that reflects Australia's commodity export exposure and the RBA's still-live tightening optionality rather than complacency about offshore risks.

Market-Moving Events · Americas

TECHThe New York Times report that OpenAI is considering delaying its IPO to next year — citing SpaceX's post-debut underperformance and broader AI-related market volatility that could prevent the company from achieving its targeted $1 trillion valuation — sent shockwaves through the semiconductor complex on Friday. AMD fell 2.6%, Intel lost 2%, Arm Holdings declined 4%, Marvell Technology slipped 3.4%, and Micron fell 2.1%. SoftBank Group, a major OpenAI backer, fell 9.2%. The Nasdaq dropped 0.24% on Friday and shed 4.6% for the week as a whole.

EARNINGSMicron Technology was the standout earnings winner of the week, surging nearly 16% on Thursday after reporting stellar results driven by booming AI-related semiconductor demand — but the good news was offset by Apple and Microsoft both announcing hardware price increases due to rising memory costs, sending Apple shares tumbling more than 6% on Thursday alone.

MACROUS Producer Price Index data released Thursday showed PPI surged 1.1% in May and 6.5% over the past 12 months, reinforcing the inflation narrative that has pushed the Fed to completely abandon its previous rate-cut forecasts. With CPI running at 4.2% and the Fed funds target at 3.50%–3.75%, markets are now pricing a resumption of rate hikes in late 2026 under Chair Kevin Warsh, a material risk for rate-sensitive equity valuations.

FEDGoldman Sachs head of Americas equities John Flood maintained a constructive stance, saying 'I still think we're in buy dip mode' and that the general trend for this market remains higher — but cautioned that volatility will persist. With US markets closing early Friday ahead of the 4 July holiday and non-farm payrolls data due that day, this is a shortened and event-dense week for US equities.

ENERGYCrude oil sold off sharply on Friday — WTI falling 3.74% to $69.23 and Brent dropping 4.34% to $71.99 — on ceasefire optimism, though both benchmarks have bounced modestly this morning, with WTI at $70.02 and Brent at $73.27. The XLE energy sector ETF fell 0.46% on Friday, underperforming the broader market as oil's relief rally remained contained given ongoing infrastructure damage in the Persian Gulf.

Market-Moving Events · Europe

ECBThe ECB delivered its first rate increase since 2023 at its June 2026 meeting, raising all three key rates by 25 basis points — lifting the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, the main refinancing rate to 2.40% and the marginal lending facility to 2.65%, effective 17 June — in direct response to rising energy costs and persistent inflation risks stemming from Hormuz disruptions.

ECBThe ECB revised its 2026 headline inflation forecast up to 3.0% from 2.6%, with energy inflation across the euro area projected to peak at 12.5% in Q3 2026. GDP growth projections were trimmed to 0.8% for 2026 and 1.2% for 2027, with ECB President Lagarde noting that the conflict materially changed the outlook after the euro area had recorded 0.3% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q1 2026. Markets have at least one additional ECB hike priced in by year-end.

MACROEuropean equities closed lower on Friday, with the DAX falling 1.29% to 24,671.22, the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.73% to 6,221.55, and the CAC 40 shedding 0.55% to 8,384.87 — broad-based weakness reflecting the combination of tighter ECB policy, the energy inflation shock, and the tech-driven global risk-off tone.

FXEUR/USD edged up 0.07% to 1.1362 on Friday, but analysts note that the wider Fed-ECB policy divergence continues to weigh on the pair. With the Fed expected to move to hikes while the ECB is only just beginning its tightening cycle from a lower base, euro strength may remain capped through the remainder of 2026.

MACROThe BRC Retail Sales Monitor for the UK is due at 09:01 ET today, with consensus expecting a sharp swing to +0.6% year-on-year from -3.4% prior — a potential positive signal for UK consumer resilience. The FTSE 100 fell a modest 0.21% to 10,508.0 on Friday, outperforming continental peers.

Market-Moving Events · Asia-Pacific

JAPANThe Nikkei 225 is down a further 1% this morning to 68,704.70, extending Friday's brutal 4.15% sell-off — the index's worst single-day move of the recent period — as AI and semiconductor-related selling continued. The Nikkei VIX spiked 7.64% to 33.12, signalling elevated short-term fear in Japanese markets. The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 1.0% at its June meeting and is continuing to reduce asset purchases through April 2027, while the yen at 161.81 per dollar keeps Ministry of Finance intervention risk on the table.

KOREASouth Korea's KOSPI triggered a circuit breaker on Friday 27 June, halting trading for 20 minutes, and is down approximately 6% to 8,411.21 this morning — extending what has been an extraordinarily volatile run for an index that had risen around 90% year-to-date. The AI tech unwind and semiconductor sector pressure are the primary catalysts, with the KOSPI's heavy weighting toward chip and electronics names making it acutely exposed to the OpenAI IPO delay narrative and broader global tech de-risking.

CHINAChinese markets showed modest resilience overnight, with the Hang Seng gaining 2.1% to 23,153.89 and the Shanghai Composite edging 0.2% higher to 4,034.08, though Friday's data showed the SSE fell 2.26% and HKEX dropped 1.76%. China's May industrial profits rose 21% year-on-year but the growth rate is slowing as domestic demand lags, with May retail sales and fixed asset investment both contracting more than expected — the latter at its weakest since the COVID-19 crisis — a significant headwind for ASX iron ore and resources exporters.

RBAThe RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% at its June meeting, but the June statement retained an explicit tightening bias, flagging it 'will do what it considers necessary including increasing the cash rate further if required.' The major banks are split on the path ahead: Westpac is the most hawkish, forecasting two further hikes in August and September, while NAB has removed its August hike forecast and CBA projects the first cuts in H1 2027. The next RBA decision is 11 August 2026.

ENERGYBrent crude has bounced 0.7% this morning to $73.27 per barrel as ceasefire optimism around Tuesday's Qatar Hormuz talks provides near-term support, though analysts warn that tanker backlogs and damaged Gulf infrastructure mean physical supply disruptions could persist through year-end regardless of diplomatic outcomes — a key variable for ASX energy names including Woodside and Santos.

Economic Calendar

Time (ET)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
09:01	GB	BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY	Medium	-3.4	0.6

Risks & Watch Items

Key Risks · Geopolitical · Supply Chain · Policy

GEOTuesday's Iran-US Hormuz corridor talks in Qatar are the single most important event of the week — any breakdown in the fragile ceasefire could spike Brent crude sharply back above $100 and trigger broad risk-off selling across Asian equity markets.

MACROUS non-farm payrolls are due Friday 3 July ahead of market close for the Independence Day holiday — a strong print will reinforce the case for Fed rate hikes in late 2026 and could hit rate-sensitive ASX sectors including REITs and growth stocks.

RISKThe KOSPI's circuit breaker event and Nikkei's combined 5%+ two-day fall signal that AI and semiconductor de-risking is not yet exhausted — ASX investors should monitor whether the selling extends into locally listed tech names and Nasdaq-tracking ETFs at today's open.

RBAWith the RBA's next decision on 11 August and Westpac forecasting two further hikes, any inflation surprise in domestic data this week — or a hawkish RBA signal via assistant governor Kent's commentary — could reprice rate expectations and hit mortgage-sensitive ASX consumer discretionary and REIT stocks.

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