Wall Street staged a broad recovery on Thursday 9 July, with the S&P 500 rising 0.81% to 7,543.64 and the Nasdaq surging 1.30% to 26,206.89, as diplomatic signals from Washington suggested technical talks with Iran remain alive, easing the acute energy-inflation fears that had pushed 10-year Treasury yields to 4.60% mid-week. The Federal Reserve, under new Chair Kevin Warsh, held its funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% at its June meeting but FOMC minutes revealed some members are openly debating a rate hike, an extraordinary hawkish pivot for a market that began 2026 pricing cuts — with markets now assigning a 32% implied probability of a hike at the 29 July meeting. The ECB moved first among major central banks, raising all three key rates by 25 basis points on 9 July citing Middle East-driven inflation pressures, taking the deposit facility to 2.25%, while the IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5%. Gold surged 1.47% to USD 4,130.60/oz and silver jumped 3.81%, underscoring that safe-haven demand remains elevated even as equities rallied on the Iran de-escalation narrative.
For Asia-Pacific markets opening today, the risk-on tone from Wall Street's semiconductor-led rebound is a meaningful tailwind, with the Nikkei 225 already up 1.38% to 67,743.85 and South Korea's KOSPI gaining 0.62% at Thursday's close, though Friday regional data shows the Nikkei extending gains to 68,943 and the KOSPI surging nearly 4% on the back of SK Hynix's record-breaking USD 26.5 billion Nasdaq IPO. Commodity-linked markets face a more nuanced picture: oil's 2.2% slide in Brent to USD 76.30/bbl pressures ASX energy names, but copper's 2.65% surge to USD 6.215/lb and gold's strength support miners, while the VIX falling 6.27% to 15.84 signals broadly improving risk appetite heading into the Australian open. The ASX 200 closed down 0.26% on Thursday but Friday regional momentum and stronger commodity prices for base and precious metals point to a modestly positive open, contingent on no overnight escalation in the Strait of Hormuz.