The dominant macro theme entering this week is a sharp escalation in US–Iran hostilities, with Tehran again declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed following US strikes on over 300 Iranian targets across three nights, while Iran extended attacks to Qatar, the UAE, Jordan, Kuwait and Oman. Brent crude has surged toward $79 per barrel — up roughly 5.4% last week — reigniting energy-driven inflation fears at a moment when the Fed, ECB and RBA are already in restrictive territory, with futures now pricing a 61% probability of a September Fed rate hike. The collision of an oil supply shock with globally hawkish central banks narrows the policy runway considerably: the World Bank has flagged global growth slowing to just 2.5% in 2026, while the IMF has separately cut Australia's growth forecast to 1.9%. Risk sentiment is mixed — US large-caps held up on Friday, but the VIX spiked 8.65% to 16.33, and early ASX trade on Monday is already softer, with the benchmark hovering near 8,797 versus Friday's 8,806 close. For Asia-Pacific markets, the week's pivotal event is Tuesday's US CPI print alongside Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Congressional testimony, which together could materially reset rate expectations and weigh on rate-sensitive sectors across the region. China's Q2 GDP release mid-week adds another pressure point for commodity-linked Australian equities, while the ongoing Hormuz closure keeps energy supply chains on edge and threatens to widen inflation differentials between import-dependent and export-exposed economies across the Asia-Pacific.