US-Iran tensions dominated overnight macro, with US forces conducting their 10th and 11th consecutive nights of strikes on Iranian targets and Houthi blockade threats against Saudi Arabia raising fresh concerns about Strait of Hormuz disruptions — a chokepoint handling roughly 20% of global oil trade. Brent crude briefly exceeded $91/bbl and WTI topped $85, reinforcing oil-driven inflation risks that are complicating central bank easing paths; the Fed under new Chair Kevin Warsh held rates in June with a hawkish tilt, while the ECB's June 25bp hike to a 2.25% deposit rate — its first since 2023 — has markets pricing roughly 70% odds of a September follow-through. Risk sentiment was mixed but ultimately resilient, with a sharp AI-led semiconductor rebound lifting US equities and gold holding near multi-year highs above $4,071/oz as investors balanced geopolitical hedges against renewed tech optimism.
For Asia-Pacific markets opening today, the cross-asset picture is broadly constructive but carries clear geopolitical tail risk. The Nikkei surged 3.26% and KOSPI jumped 3.56%, both driven by the overnight semiconductor rebound — moves that will set a positive tone for ASX technology and chip-exposed names, while the 2% rally in crude directly benefits ASX energy producers. However, rising US 10-year yields (now 4.60%, up 5bp) and a firmer USD (DXY 101.18, +0.19%) create a headwind for rate-sensitive sectors and AUD-denominated assets; the Australian dollar faces pressure from a stronger greenback even as commodity prices lend support, and today's domestic employment data at 21:30 ET — forecast at just 16,400 jobs versus a prior 40,300 — will be the key local catalyst to watch.