Central banks dominated Thursday's session, with the ECB holding its deposit facility rate at 2.25% at its July 23 meeting — maintaining a data-dependent stance and explicitly citing upside inflation risks tied to Middle East energy disruptions — while the Fed (on hold at 3.50–3.75%) and the BoE (holding at 3.75%) kept markets in a wait-and-see posture ahead of the July 29 FOMC. Geopolitical tensions centred on Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping disruptions continued to drive oil volatility, with Brent surging 7.04% to $100.69/bbl overnight, reinforcing the narrative that supply-side inflation pressures remain structurally elevated and central bank easing timelines are at risk of further delay. Risk sentiment deteriorated sharply on Wall Street, with the VIX spiking 12.38% to 18.7 and the NASDAQ shedding 2.15% as earnings disappointments from Tesla and Alphabet compounded macro anxiety, while defensives and industrials provided pockets of resilience. The cross-asset picture heading into the Asia-Pacific open is cautious: gold fell 2.42% to $4,046/oz and copper dropped 2.26%, suggesting a risk-off rotation rather than a straightforward inflation hedge bid, while rising US Treasury yields — the 10-year at 4.67% (+4bp) and the 30-year at 5.15% (+2bp) — add pressure to rate-sensitive equity sectors. For ASX investors, the commodity picture is mixed: the oil surge is a net positive for energy producers, but softness in copper, gold, silver, and palladium will weigh on diversified miners; the RBA hawkish re-pricing following the surprise Australian employment beat introduces an additional domestic headwind for rate-sensitive sectors including REITs and banks. European indices closed sharply lower — Euro Stoxx 50 off 1.69%, DAX down 1.56% — providing a further cautionary signal, though the ASX 200's modest +0.18% overnight close and relatively subdued ASX VIX of 10.94 suggest local markets may open with more resilience than US futures would imply.