Central banks across the major economies — the Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh, the ECB, the BoE, and the RBA — all held rates steady into mid-August 2026, with softer inflation data easing near-term hike expectations in the United States while persistent energy price pressures from ongoing Middle East conflicts kept the ECB and BoE vigilant. Brent crude pushed to $88.52 and WTI to $82.40 on supply concerns and accelerating Chinese purchases, lending support to energy-linked risk sentiment even as the S&P 500 slipped 0.17% on Friday to cap its third consecutive weekly gain. The VIX eased 2.60% to 14.25, signalling broadly contained fear in equity markets, though a notable divergence emerged as the ASX VIX spiked 5.58% to 10.98, warranting close attention from Australian investors. Gold extended its rally to $4,380 per ounce and the DXY softened to 99.67, reflecting a mild risk-on tilt at the margin even as tech leadership rotated and US Treasury yields declined across the curve.
For Asia-Pacific markets opening this Monday, the cross-asset picture presents a mixed but navigable backdrop: the ASX 200 closed Friday down 0.80% and the elevated ASX VIX suggests some residual domestic anxiety heading into the session, while the KOSPI surged 2.42% and the Nikkei gained 0.59%, pointing to selective regional optimism. The softer US dollar and firmer oil prices are net positives for Australian energy exporters such as Woodside and Santos, while iron ore's modest gain to $95.17 per tonne provides limited but present support for the major miners. US Treasury yields fell 5 basis points across the 2- and 10-year tenors, which may offer mild relief to rate-sensitive ASX sectors including REITs and growth equities. Investors will be watching today's US retail sales data at 08:30 ET and preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment at 10:00 ET, as well as a scheduled address from President Trump at 15:00 ET, all of which could re-price risk appetite into the Tuesday Asian open.