BOJ|JPYToday's BOJ policy rate decision (11:30 JST) is expected to deliver a hold at 1.25%, consistent with last week's outcome, but the Monetary Policy Statement and Outlook Report released simultaneously will be scrutinised for any upgrade to the inflation and growth trajectory given Friday's declaration that underlying CPI has reached the 2% target for the first time. The BOJ press conference at 14:30 JST will be the key event for yen direction; USD/JPY is currently at 157.80.
JPY|MACROTokyo Core CPI y/y for October is due at 08:30 JST, with the forecast at 2.6% against a prior reading of 2.7%. A reading in line with or above forecast would reinforce the BoJ's stated position that underlying inflation is sustainably at target, potentially adding to market expectations for a December or March rate hike. The data point arrives ahead of the BOJ policy announcement at 11:30 JST.
NIKKEI|TOPIX|TECHFriday's Nikkei 225 top losers were concentrated almost exclusively in the technology and semiconductor equipment supply chain: Fujitsu (-16.20%), Ibiden (-15.21%), Lasertec (-8.81%), Furukawa Electric (-8.45%), and Sumco (-7.93%). These moves directly track the US earnings shock from Intel (-28.6–29%), Alphabet (-12.6–13%), and Amazon (-1.41%), which raised questions about the pace of AI-related demand for advanced packaging, substrates, and chip-making equipment — all areas where these Japanese companies have significant exposure.
TOPIX|JAPANAgainst the broad Nikkei decline, TOPIX sector data from Friday's prior session showed meaningful dispersion: Transport & Logistics (+2.76%), Retail Trade (+2.15%), and Pharma (+1.54%) were the top performers, consistent with domestic demand resilience and the relative insulation of those sectors from the AI/chip repricing. Conversely, Steel & Metals fell 5.21% and Electrical Equipment dropped 2.80%, the latter tracking the semiconductor equipment selloff. Banks declined 0.39%, a relatively contained move given the BoJ's hawkish hold — higher policy rates structurally widen net interest margins for Japanese lenders including MUFG and SMFG.
KOSPI|KOREA|TECHSouth Korea's KOSPI declined 3.48% to 5,730.74, the worst performer in Friday's regional session, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix cited as the primary drags. The selloff reflects Korea's concentrated equity index exposure to memory semiconductors at a time when the US AI earnings cycle is showing its first signs of capex-to-revenue disappointment. USD/KRW declined 0.34% to 1,333.44, indicating some won strengthening even amid the equity pressure.
HKEX|CHINAThe Hang Seng's +1.46% gain to 23,294.42 on Friday stood in contrast to most regional indices and may reflect China's ongoing fiscal support backdrop: the government's 800 billion yuan policy-based financial instrument program includes heavy AI and digital infrastructure allocation, and mortgage interest subsidies effective October 1 continue to underpin property-related sentiment. USD/CNY fell 0.24% to 6.6449, reflecting modest yuan appreciation that may also be supportive of Hong Kong-listed Chinese assets.