Geopolitical risk remained elevated on Friday as intensified Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude briefly toward and above $105 per barrel, before President Trump's comments that the US would not launch new attacks on Iran ahead of the November midterms provided modest relief and allowed markets to stabilise. Central banks maintained a cautious-to-hawkish posture globally, with Fed officials including Governor Christopher Waller and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem signalling further rate hikes may be warranted though not necessarily in consecutive meetings, while the ECB struck a similar tone citing eurozone inflation running near 3.8%, and India's central bank moved to raise its repo rate 25 basis points to 5.5%. US Treasury yields eased modestly on the day — the 10-year fell 6 basis points to 5.22% and the 30-year shed 7 basis points to 5.60% — but remain structurally elevated, reflecting persistent fiscal and inflation pressures. The VIX declined 3.70% to 14.84, signalling a broadly risk-on close to the week despite the geopolitical noise.
For Asia-Pacific markets opening this Monday, the constructive Wall Street finish — with the S&P 500 up 0.59% to 7,811.54 and the DJIA adding 0.83% to 51,654.95 — provides a positive overnight lead, and ASX futures pointed higher heading into the open. The AUD strengthened 0.39% to 0.6986 against the USD, a modest tailwind for import-exposed sectors but worth watching given the still-elevated yield differential. Commodity signals are mixed for Australia: gold surged 1.43% to USD 4,216.30 per ounce and copper jumped 1.89% to USD 6.6425 per pound, supporting local miners, while iron ore slipped 0.33% to USD 90.68 per tonne and lithium carbonate fell 2.08% to USD 18,201 per tonne, adding pressure to battery materials names. HKEX outperformed the region Friday with a 1.79% gain, while KOSPI fell sharply by 2.62%, reflecting divergent risk appetite across the region.