Overnight the USD Index slipped 0.09% to 99.96 and AUD/USD fell 0.14% to 0.703, leaving most critical minerals prices little changed at the prior close with nickel the sole mover down 0.52% to $18,305/t. Copper posted a modest 0.24% gain to $6.345/lb while lithium carbonate held at $24,071/t and cobalt remained at $56,290/t, reflecting thin post-close liquidity rather than any shift in fundamentals. China’s 6.7717 CNY/USD rate offered no offsetting support to domestic benchmarks that closed flat.

Grasberg’s force majeure continues to remove an estimated 200kt of copper mine supply in 2026 per Goldman Sachs, while the DRC’s 96,600t annual cobalt export quota regime stays locked in place with no pro-rata adjustments overnight; these two structural shortfalls remain the dominant pricing anchors despite the absence of fresh Tier-1 disruptions. Lithium carbonate in China traded unchanged at 163,750 CNY/t, extending its 16% month-to-date decline without new SMM or Fastmarkets moves.

Freeport-McMoRan and its Indonesian partners face the largest direct exposure to any Grasberg update, while BHP and Rio Tinto’s Australian copper assets price in the cumulative 525kt supply loss through 2026; on the lithium side, Pilbara Minerals and Liontown watch the China carbonate slide for potential offtake renegotiation pressure.