WYS Critical Minerals · Thu 11 Jun 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · THURSDAY 11 JUNE 2026 · WYS EDITION 011

Data as of Wednesday 10 June 2026 close · Generated 11 June 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-260603_1310 / T-260601_1017

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

PRICE Nickel ▼ Bearish

Nickel prices fall sharply on June 10 amid oversupply

LME nickel benchmark dropped ~1.5% to ~$17,730/t on June 10, extending recent declines driven by persistent oversupply from Indonesia and weak stainless steel demand in China. NPI market pressure outweighs EV battery narratives, pressuring unintegrated producers.

POLICY Nickel ▲ Bullish

Indonesia maintains tight 2026 nickel ore quotas

Indonesian government holds 2026 nickel ore production quota at 250-260 Mt, down sharply from 2025 levels, as part of ongoing supply discipline efforts. This policy continues to influence global pricing despite current oversupply signals.

POLICY Rare Earths ▲ Bullish

China sustains rare earth export restrictions to US/Japan

April 2026 data shows continued low Chinese exports of controlled rare earth compounds and magnets to the US, with Japan exports remaining minimal post-January controls. This reinforces supply concentration risks and Western diversification push.

POLICY Rare Earths ▲ Bullish

US advances domestic rare earth supply chain funding

USA Rare Earth secures up to $1.6B in CHIPS Act funding for mine-to-magnet projects; broader US-led critical minerals summit with 50+ countries targets reduced China dependence. Supports long-term supply diversification.

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

Overnight the USD Index rose 0.14% to 100.05 while AUD/USD fell 0.34% to 0.6999 and the S&P 500 dropped 1.62%, tightening financing conditions for AUD-denominated producers and capping price gains across the complex despite lithium carbonate closing 1.22% higher at 24411.26 USD/t. Spodumene SC6 edged up 0.78% to 2447 USD/t while nickel fell 1.25% to 17770 USD/t and copper 1.67% to 6.1975 USD/lb, reflecting selective support only for the lithium segment amid broader risk-off flows. Para 2: The sole confirmed supply event was the 9 June fire at Greenbushes CGP3, the newest chemical-grade spodumene plant operated by the Talison Lithium JV (IGO 24.99%, Tianqi Lithium, Albemarle); IGO confirmed CGP1 and CGP2 remain fully operational with FY2026 guidance of 1.375–1.425 million tonnes of spodumene concentrate unchanged, limiting immediate global supply loss to a short-term ramp-up delay rather than an outright cut. Para 3: On the ASX, IGO Limited faces the most direct exposure through its Greenbushes stake and potential CGP3 repair costs, while Tianqi Lithium and Albemarle equity will be watched for any revision to ramp-up schedules; nickel and copper names such as BHP and Rio Tinto saw no operational updates and traded in line with LME price weakness.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

LITHIUMGreenbushes CGP3 fire leaves CGP1 and CGP2 at full rate, preserving 1.375–1.425 Mt FY2026 spodumene guidance.

LITHIUMLithium carbonate closed 1.22% higher at 24411.26 USD/t while SC6 rose 0.78% to 2447 USD/t on limited supply-risk premium.

NICKELNickel settled 1.25% lower at 17770 USD/t with no new Indonesian or Australian mine curtailments reported.

EVNo overnight gigafactory or EV sales data releases from CATL, BYD or LG Energy Solution.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

CHINASMM rare-earth oxide prices showed no material overnight move in the absence of new Chinese export quotas.

NDFEБNo fresh NdFeB magnet demand data or policy announcements from Beijing in the 12-hour window.

SUPPLYNo force-majeure or production halts declared at Mountain Pass or Mount Weld rare-earth operations.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

GALLIUMGallium held steady at 277.15 USD/kg with no new Chinese export licence restrictions announced.

GERMANIUMGermanium closed unchanged at 2673.66 USD/kg amid flat Antaike domestic quotes.

ANTIMONYAntimony traded flat at 19562 USD/t with no updates to Chinese or Russian export controls.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDUSD Index at 100.05 (+0.14%) pressured AUD-linked critical-minerals equities despite selective lithium price gains.

CHINAChina PMI data release absent overnight, leaving domestic demand signals for copper and nickel unchanged.

RATESS&P 500 decline of 1.62% tightened risk appetite for junior critical-minerals developers.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Medium Impact 2–4 years

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Low Impact 3–5 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

High Impact Active

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery

Low Impact Ongoing

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery, rare_earth

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	5.760	▼ 1.71%	▼ 10.84%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	64.180	▼ 2.52%	▼ 12.64%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	1.905	▼ 7.97%	▼ 21.28%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	8.440	▼ 6.01%	▼ 11.90%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	0.535	▲ 0.00%	▲ 0.00%	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	16.870	▼ 2.37%	▼ 12.09%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.350	▼ 5.41%	▼ 12.50%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	9.380	▼ 6.94%	▼ 17.14%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.155	▼ 4.15%	▼ 9.77%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	18.300	▼ 1.98%	▼ 6.78%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.235	▼ 6.00%	▼ 14.55%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	7.140	▼ 4.16%	▼ 9.62%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.054	▼ 5.26%	▼ 23.94%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.047	▼ 7.84%	▼ 12.96%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.370	▼ 3.90%	▼ 27.45%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	3.150	▼ 2.48%	▼ 21.05%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.056	▼ 5.08%	▼ 18.84%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.465	▼ 1.06%	▼ 16.22%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.395	▼ 4.82%	▼ 18.56%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.480	▼ 2.04%	▼ 8.57%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.560	▼ 12.50%	▼ 22.76%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

WR1.AXWinsome ResourcesLithium▲ 0.00%

WC8.AXWildcat ResourcesLithium▲ 1.06%

PLS.AXPilbara MineralsLithium▲ 1.71%

SFR.AXSandfire ResourcesCopper▲ 1.98%

GL1.AXGlobal Lithium ResourcesLithium▲ 2.04%

▼ Top Losers

PMT.AXPMET ResourcesLithium▼ 12.50%

LTR.AXLiontown ResourcesLithium▼ 7.97%

ASN.AXAnson ResourcesLithium▼ 7.84%

PDN.AXPaladin EnergyUranium▼ 6.94%

IGO.AXIGO LtdLithium/Nickel▼ 6.01%

21/21 watchlist stocks · prior close

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	53.450	▼ 1.57%	▼ 22.86%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	13.690	▼ 4.73%	▼ 22.30%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	95.030	▼ 7.08%	▼ 15.60%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	99.060	▼ 2.33%	▼ 9.09%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	4.150	▼ 4.38%	▼ 24.68%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	74.240	▼ 1.88%	▼ 11.00%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	92.770	▼ 5.86%	▼ 14.25%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	62.080	▼ 3.38%	▼ 7.40%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	14.930	▼ 1.39%	▼ 8.40%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

VALEValeNickel/Iron▲ 1.39%

MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▲ 1.57%

SQMSQMLithium▲ 1.88%

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▲ 2.33%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▲ 3.38%

▼ Top Losers

CCJCamecoUranium▼ 7.08%

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▼ 5.86%

UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▼ 4.73%

LACLithium AmericasLithium▼ 4.38%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▼ 3.38%

9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	35.800	▼ 3.66%	▼ 14.92%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	39.720	▼ 2.14%	▼ 8.73%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	12.710	▼ 5.92%	▼ 18.21%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	12.920	▼ 6.58%	▼ 18.33%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	3.940	▼ 3.90%	▼ 16.70%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 2.14%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 3.66%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 3.90%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 5.92%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 6.58%

▼ Top Losers

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 6.58%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 5.92%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 3.90%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 3.66%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 2.14%

5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	16.270	▼ 1.99%	▼ 12.05%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	8.110	▼ 1.93%	▼ 11.07%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	9.740	▼ 4.23%	▼ 10.48%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	1.150	▼ 2.54%	▼ 2.54%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 1.93%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 1.99%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 2.54%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 4.23%

▼ Top Losers

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 4.23%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 2.54%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 1.99%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 1.93%

4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

4 metals tracked

⚑ Caution

+0.25%

Best

Lithium Carb.

+1.22%

Worst

Nickel

-1.25%

Lithium prices rose on Greenbushes CGP3 fire while nickel and cobalt were unchanged with no new supply events.

Rare Earths

4 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-12.90%

Best

Neodymium Oxide

-12.70%

Worst

Praseodymium Ox.

-13.10%

Rare-earth prices stable overnight with no Chinese policy moves or mine disruptions reported.

Strategic Metals

4 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

4 metal price(s) available — no change data

Gallium, germanium and antimony prices flat; no new export controls from China.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+1.43%

Best

Nat. Gas

+1.43%

Worst

Nat. Gas

+1.43%

No uranium or vanadium developments overnight.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-1.67%

Best

Copper

-1.67%

Worst

Copper

-1.67%

Copper fell 1.67% amid broader equity sell-off and absence of fresh China demand data.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+0.31%

Best

Crude Oil (WTI)

+4.08%

Worst

Gold

-3.96%

Oil and gas prices not referenced in overnight critical-minerals data flow.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
00:30	AU	Westpac Consumer Confidence Change	High	3.5	None
00:30	AU	Westpac Consumer Confidence Index	Medium	83	None
01:30	AU	NAB Business Confidence	High	-23	None
01:30	AU	RBA Bulletin	Medium	None	None
03:00	CN	Balance of Trade	High	84.8	92.1
03:00	CN	Exports YoY	High	14.1	15
03:00	CN	Imports YoY	High	25.3	25
12:15	US	ADP Employment Change Weekly	Medium	30.5	None
12:30	US	Balance of Trade	Medium	-56.6	-56.1
12:30	US	Exports	Medium	318.8	None
12:30	US	Imports	Medium	375.4	None
14:00	US	Existing Home Sales	High	4.04	4.07
14:00	US	Existing Home Sales MoM	Medium	0.7	None
16:00	US	EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook	Medium	None	None
16:30	EU	ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	None	None
20:30	US	API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	-6.75	-3.4

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

SUPPLYMonitor IGO updates on CGP3 damage extent and any revision to Greenbushes concentrate delivery schedule.

MACROWatch next China PMI release for fresh signals on battery metals and copper demand.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.