WYS Critical Minerals · Mon 29 Jun 2026 — Theme Tracker

While You Slept — Critical Minerals Daily Energy Transition · AI Buildout · The Materials That Power Both

PAUL HAGUE CREATIONS ↗ · MONDAY 29 JUNE 2026 · WYS EDITION 031

Data as of Friday 26 June 2026 close · Generated 29 June 2026 7:00 AM AEST · S-260619_1909 / T-260601_1017

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        Monday morning — all prices reflect Friday 26 June 2026 close
      

        AU market holidays accounted for. Live data resumes next trading session.
      

Commodity Prices

Key Overnight Moves · Headline Critical Minerals

↳ Background Context

Lithium (Carbonate · Hydroxide · Spodumene) · Cobalt · Nickel · Manganese · Graphite

Neodymium · Dysprosium · Terbium · Praseodymium · Lanthanum · NdFeB Magnets

Gallium · Germanium · Indium · Antimony · Tungsten · Titanium · Hafnium

Uranium · Vanadium · Molybdenum

Copper · Aluminium · Zinc · Lead · Tin · Nickel Pig Iron

Why this matters: Incumbent energy prices directly affect the transition narrative — an oil spike improves EV economics; cheap gas softens the case for grid storage; high coal accelerates renewables deployment. These are not critical minerals prices but they move the investment thesis.

Oil · Gas · Coal · Carbon · Hydrogen Proxy

Supply & Demand Signals

Mine Events · Export Controls · Battery Inventory · EV & Gigafactory News · Offtake Deals

POLICY Rare Earths ▲ Bullish

China rare earth exports to US hit zero in May 2026

New export controls implemented in April 2025 continue to restrict shipments of controlled rare earth compounds and metals to the United States, with volumes falling to zero in May after a brief recovery. Japan also sees limited supplies under the tightened regime. This sustains supply tightness for defense and tech applications.

PRICE Nickel ▼ Bearish

Nickel price falls to $16,805/t amid Indonesia supply plans

Nickel declined 0.36% on June 26 to $16,805 per tonne, extending a monthly drop of over 11%. Indonesia's upcoming permit for substantial mine production increases is weighing on sentiment despite year-over-year gains.

DEMAND Lithium ▲ Bullish

Lithium demand outpaces supply in June 2026

Cathode and battery cell manufacturers maintained high production growth with strong end-user demand supporting upward price pressure. Mining supply remains constrained while battery storage demand provides additional tailwinds beyond EVs.

POLICY Graphite ● Neutral

US postpones preliminary determination on Chinese graphite electrodes

Commerce Department postponed the preliminary antidumping duty determination on large-diameter graphite electrodes from China at petitioners' request. The move affects trade flows for this key battery and industrial material amid ongoing supply chain scrutiny.

PRICE Uranium ▲ Bullish

Uranium spot price rises to $85.90/lb amid steady demand

Spot U3O8 closed the week ending June 23 at $85.90/lb, up $0.95, supported by transactions even during seasonal slowdown. Market remains well bid with blended prices holding near $85.85/lb.

Analysis

Overnight Briefing

Global Overview · What Moved & Why

Overnight macro showed USD Index at 101.36 down 0.07% and CNY/USD at 6.7975 up 0.11%, producing modest downward pressure on USD-denominated critical minerals while Chinese domestic lithium carbonate fell 2.87% to 152500 CNY/t and spodumene SC6 dropped 3.14% to 2219 USD/t. Copper rose 1.17% to 6.1415 USD/lb amid thin volume, with nickel off 0.36% to 16805 USD/t and uranium U3O8 down 0.29% to 85.25 USD/lb. No overnight policy or operational shocks altered the pricing tape. No Tier 1 supply events occurred; searches found zero mine outages, export bans, or force majeure declarations from China, DRC, Indonesia or Russia, leaving the 2.87% lithium carbonate and 3.14% spodumene declines as the sole material moves without named company production cuts in tonnes. Taseko maintained its 30-35 million pound Florence Copper cathode guidance but reported no overnight revisions. ASX and TSX names tied to lithium and spodumene spot prices face the sharpest read-through from the 2.87-3.14% declines, while Taseko’s unchanged 110-115 million pound Gibraltar guidance provides a neutral copper offset absent any new LME inventory data.

Battery Supply Chain · Lithium · Cobalt · Nickel · Graphite

LITHIUMLithium carbonate fell 2.87% to 152500 CNY/t with no new mine or refinery data from Chinese producers.

EVNo gigafactory output changes or offtake announcements emerged from CATL, BYD or LG overnight.

NICKELNickel traded down 0.36% to 16805 USD/t absent any Indonesian or Australian supply revisions.

COBALTCobalt held flat at 56290 USD/t with zero reported DRC production impacts.

Rare Earths & Magnets · EV Motors · Defence · Wind

CHINAChina’s June 22 export control list addition covering MP Materials and USA Rare Earth remained the latest policy item with no overnight updates.

NDFEБNeodymium oxide stayed at 176 USD/kg with no new Chinese domestic pricing from SMM or Antaike.

EXPORTNo fresh dual-use export licences or quotas were issued by MIIT overnight.

Strategic Metals · Export Controls · Supply Chain Risk

GALLIUMGallium held at 279.66 USD/kg with no new export control announcements from China.

GERMANIUMGermanium remained at 2673.66 USD/kg absent policy moves.

ANTIMONYAntimony traded flat at 13879.06 USD/t with zero reported supply disruptions.

Macro Themes · Energy Transition · AI Buildout · Deglobalisation

USDUSD Index at 101.36 down 0.07% eased pressure on non-USD critical minerals contracts.

CHINAChina PMI data remained unreleased in the overnight window.

TRADEAUD/USD at 0.6893 down 0.12% offered no material shift for Australian producers.

Technology Disruptions · Substitution Risks · Demand Amplifiers

Medium Impact 2–4 years

Na-Ion Battery Displacement Risk

CATL and BYD scaling Na-ion chemistry for sub-200km EVs. Reduces lithium demand in entry-level segment. Not a near-term threat to battery-grade lithium carbonate demand but creates ceiling on price recovery.

Affects: battery

Low Impact 3–5 years

Solid-State Battery Commercialisation

Toyota, Samsung SDI and QuantumScape targeting 2027–2028 commercial production. Uses lithium metal anode — potentially increases lithium intensity per kWh vs liquid electrolyte. Positive for lithium demand long term.

Affects: battery

High Impact Active

China Critical Mineral Export Controls

China has implemented export licensing for gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth processing technology. Enforcement and scope subject to ongoing policy adjustment. Direct supply risk for Western manufacturers.

Affects: strategic, rare_earth, battery

Low Impact Ongoing

US IRA Critical Minerals Incentives

Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements for EV battery credits driving investment in non-Chinese supply chains. Benefits ASX and Canadian miners with US-market exposure.

Affects: battery, rare_earth

Market Watch

ASX Watchlist · Critical Minerals Producers

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
PLS.AX	Pilbara Minerals	Lithium	5.040	▼ 6.32%	▼ 20.75%	—
MIN.AX	Mineral Resources	Lithium/Iron	63.140	▼ 1.56%	▼ 12.27%	—
LTR.AX	Liontown Resources	Lithium	1.660	▼ 5.68%	▼ 22.07%	—
IGO.AX	IGO Ltd	Lithium/Nickel	7.310	▼ 4.32%	▼ 18.23%	—
WR1.AX	Winsome Resources	Lithium	—	—	—	—
LYC.AX	Lynas Rare Earths	Rare Earths	18.540	▼ 0.86%	▲ 2.43%	—
ARR.AX	American Rare Earths	Rare Earths	0.330	▲ 0.00%	▼ 12.00%	—
PDN.AX	Paladin Energy	Uranium	9.350	▼ 4.00%	▼ 12.21%	—
BOE.AX	Boss Energy	Uranium	1.010	▼ 4.72%	▼ 20.16%	—
SFR.AX	Sandfire Resources	Copper	18.890	▼ 0.42%	▼ 12.14%	—
29M.AX	29Metals	Copper/Zinc	0.255	▲ 4.08%	▼ 12.07%	—
ILU.AX	Iluka Resources	Rare Earths/Zircon	6.900	▼ 3.90%	▼ 12.66%	—
AGY.AX	Argosy Minerals	Lithium	0.046	▼ 4.17%	▼ 22.03%	—
ASN.AX	Anson Resources	Lithium	0.043	▼ 2.27%	▼ 12.24%	—
GLN.AX	Galan Lithium	Lithium	0.350	▼ 2.78%	▼ 21.35%	—
VUL.AX	Vulcan Energy Resources	Lithium	2.990	▼ 4.17%	▼ 14.57%	—
LKE.AX	Lake Resources	Lithium	0.042	▼ 4.55%	▼ 26.32%	—
WC8.AX	Wildcat Resources	Lithium	0.505	▲ 0.00%	▼ 9.01%	—
EUR.AX	European Lithium	Lithium	0.380	▼ 3.80%	▼ 6.17%	—
GL1.AX	Global Lithium Resources	Lithium	0.395	▼ 8.14%	▼ 18.56%	—
PMT.AX	PMET Resources	Lithium	0.565	▼ 5.83%	▼ 15.04%	—

ASX Materials · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

29M.AX29MetalsCopper/Zinc▲ 4.08%

ARR.AXAmerican Rare EarthsRare Earths▲ 0.00%

WC8.AXWildcat ResourcesLithium▲ 0.00%

SFR.AXSandfire ResourcesCopper▲ 0.42%

LYC.AXLynas Rare EarthsRare Earths▲ 0.86%

▼ Top Losers

GL1.AXGlobal Lithium ResourcesLithium▼ 8.14%

PLS.AXPilbara MineralsLithium▼ 6.32%

PMT.AXPMET ResourcesLithium▼ 5.83%

LTR.AXLiontown ResourcesLithium▼ 5.68%

BOE.AXBoss EnergyUranium▼ 4.72%

20/21 watchlist stocks · prior close

US Watchlist · Miners · Battery Names · EV Supply Chain

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
MP	MP Materials	Rare Earths	53.900	▼ 3.09%	▼ 5.52%	—
UUUU	Energy Fuels	Uranium/REE	14.620	▲ 1.39%	▼ 4.69%	—
CCJ	Cameco	Uranium	104.490	▲ 0.88%	▼ 3.14%	—
RIO	Rio Tinto	Lithium/Copper/Iron	93.740	▼ 1.44%	▼ 11.35%	—
LAC	Lithium Americas	Lithium	3.790	▼ 1.56%	▼ 14.83%	—
SQM	SQM	Lithium	71.590	▼ 2.08%	▼ 13.86%	—
NEM	Newmont	Gold/Copper	96.130	▲ 0.82%	▼ 11.35%	—
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	Copper	62.450	▼ 0.56%	▼ 10.98%	—
VALE	Vale	Nickel/Iron	15.070	▼ 0.33%	▼ 5.69%	—

NYSE/NASDAQ · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

UUUUEnergy FuelsUranium/REE▲ 1.39%

CCJCamecoUranium▲ 0.88%

NEMNewmontGold/Copper▲ 0.82%

VALEValeNickel/Iron▲ 0.33%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▲ 0.56%

▼ Top Losers

MPMP MaterialsRare Earths▼ 3.09%

SQMSQMLithium▼ 2.08%

LACLithium AmericasLithium▼ 1.56%

RIORio TintoLithium/Copper/Iron▼ 1.44%

FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper▼ 0.56%

9/9 watchlist stocks · prior close

TSX Watchlist · Canadian Critical Minerals

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
LUN.TO	Lundin Mining	Copper/Zinc	33.730	▲ 0.54%	▼ 12.91%	—
FM.TO	First Quantum	Copper	37.300	▼ 0.37%	▼ 15.95%	—
CS.TO	Capstone Copper	Copper	12.740	▼ 2.45%	▼ 15.12%	—
NXE.TO	NexGen Energy	Uranium	13.790	▲ 0.73%	▼ 7.01%	—
DML.TO	Denison Mines	Uranium	4.390	▲ 0.46%	▼ 6.40%	—

TSX · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▲ 0.73%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▲ 0.54%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▲ 0.46%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▲ 0.37%

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▲ 2.45%

▼ Top Losers

CS.TOCapstone CopperCopper▼ 2.45%

FM.TOFirst QuantumCopper▼ 0.37%

DML.TODenison MinesUranium▼ 0.46%

LUN.TOLundin MiningCopper/Zinc▼ 0.54%

NXE.TONexGen EnergyUranium▼ 0.73%

5/5 watchlist stocks · prior close

HK / Shanghai · Battery Makers · Chinese Miners

Ticker	Company	Exposure	Price	Change	7d	Mkt Cap
3993.HK	CMOC Group	Copper/Cobalt	15.220	▼ 1.81%	▼ 20.40%	—
1208.HK	MMG Ltd	Copper/Zinc	6.770	▼ 3.42%	▼ 21.10%	—
2600.HK	Aluminum Corp China	Aluminium/REE	7.640	▼ 1.42%	▼ 15.39%	—
1899.HK	Zhaojin Mining	Gold	1.100	▲ 0.92%	▼ 5.98%	—

HK / Shanghai · Broader Movers

▲ Top Gainers

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▲ 0.92%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▲ 1.42%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▲ 1.81%

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▲ 3.42%

▼ Top Losers

1208.HKMMG LtdCopper/Zinc▼ 3.42%

3993.HKCMOC GroupCopper/Cobalt▼ 1.81%

2600.HKAluminum Corp ChinaAluminium/REE▼ 1.42%

1899.HKZhaojin MiningGold▼ 0.92%

4/4 watchlist stocks · prior close

Calendar & Risks

Metal Category Scorecard

Category Performance · Net Signal · Best & Worst Movers

Battery Metals

5 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-1.59%

Best

Cobalt

0.00%

Worst

Spodumene SC6

-3.14%

Lithium carbonate and spodumene prices led declines with no supply or demand events to explain the 2.87-3.14% moves.

Rare Earths

4 metals tracked

— No Change Data

No change data this session

4 metal price(s) available — no change data

Neodymium oxide and Chinese policy items remained static after the June 22 export control additions.

Strategic Metals

4 metals tracked

◆ Neutral

-0.09%

Best

Indium

-0.09%

Worst

Indium

-0.09%

Gallium, germanium and antimony showed zero price movement and no new export controls overnight.

Energy Metals

2 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-1.82%

Best

Uranium (U3O8)

-0.29%

Worst

Nat. Gas

-3.35%

Uranium edged 0.29% lower with no fresh contracting or production data.

Base Metals

6 metals tracked

▲ Bullish

+1.29%

Best

Tin

+1.41%

Worst

Copper

+1.17%

Copper gained 1.17% while Taseko left its 30-35 million pound cathode guidance unchanged.

Competing Energy

5 metals tracked

▼ Bearish

-1.09%

Best

Silver

+1.49%

Worst

Brent Crude

-4.34%

No oil, gas or coal price moves were reported that would alter the energy transition narrative.

Economic & Industry Calendar

China PMI · Trade Data · EV Sales · Battery Announcements · FOMC · RBA

Time (AEST)	Ctry	Event	Impact	Prior	Forecast
00:30	AU	Westpac Consumer Confidence Change	High	3.5	None
00:30	AU	Westpac Consumer Confidence Index	Medium	83	None
01:30	AU	NAB Business Confidence	High	-23	None
01:30	AU	RBA Bulletin	Medium	None	None
03:00	CN	Balance of Trade	High	84.8	92.1
03:00	CN	Exports YoY	High	14.1	15
03:00	CN	Imports YoY	High	25.3	25
12:15	US	ADP Employment Change Weekly	Medium	30.5	None
12:30	US	Balance of Trade	Medium	-56.6	-56.1
12:30	US	Exports	Medium	318.8	None
12:30	US	Imports	Medium	375.4	None
14:00	US	Existing Home Sales	High	4.04	4.07
14:00	US	Existing Home Sales MoM	Medium	0.7	None
16:00	US	EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook	Medium	None	None
16:30	EU	ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	None	None
20:30	US	API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	-6.75	-3.4

Risks & Watch Items

Upcoming Supply Risk · Demand Uncertainty · Policy Watch

MACROChina PMI release timing remains the next scheduled data point for industrial demand signals.

SUPPLYTaseko’s Florence Copper 30-35 million pound guidance provides the nearest named production benchmark.

GEOChina’s June 22 addition of MP Materials and USA Rare Earth to the export control list stays the active policy overhang.

⚠ General Information & Disclaimer

Not financial advice. This report is produced for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this report constitutes financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or security. This report does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or needs.

Specialty metals data. Price data is sourced from third-party providers including Metals-API, Yahoo Finance, and Grok/xAI search. Critical minerals markets are highly specialised and often illiquid. Some prices trade infrequently — where live data is unavailable, last-known values are shown with a CACHED indicator. These are indicative only and may not reflect actual tradeable prices.

No licence. Paul Hague Creations does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © Paul Hague Creations. All rights reserved.